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State Legislatures and the 2020 Election

by ARGeezer Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 12:47:21 AM EST

The Democrats should increase their control - National Conference of State Legislatures

Control of legislative chambers is vital to influence over redistricting and other legislation. Without control of at least one chamber or the Governorship a party is out of luck and influence. State legislatures have been a stronghold for Republicans.

On average, 12 chambers change party in each general election cycle--that includes changes in both directions. Democrats need to net nine chambers to reach parity this year, or 10 to pass Republicans in chamber control. Democrats have opportunities for gains, yet it will be a steep climb, particularly given that, as previously noted, this is a year unlike any other. The GOP primarily will be playing defense, with Dems on defense in just a few states.

Dems hope to take control of either or both chambers in Arizona, the Florida Senate, the Iowa House, the Michigan House, the Minnesota Senate, either or both chambers in North Carolina and the Wisconsin Senate. Further reaches include the Michigan House, Texas House and both chambers in Pennsylvania. And yet, this being an unprecedented year, making guesses is dangerous indeed



The Cook Political Report

If the arc of the 2020 election continues as it has for the past few months, the Democrats can look forward to gains in the state legislatures.

This is the conclusion of our second handicapping of state legislative control this election cycle; we published the first on Jan. 15. We're shifting eight chambers, six of which are currently held by the GOP, in the Democrats' direction. .....

At this point for the 2020 cycle, we rate 18 chambers as competitive slightly more than the 17 we saw as competitive in our final handicapping prior to the 2018 election. Ominously for Republicans, the GOP holds 13 of the vulnerable chambers on our list, compared to just five for the Democrats. This suggests that the Democrats are positioned to net at least a few chambers this fall.

Each of the chambers we're placing in the lean Republican or lean Democratic categories are currently controlled by the party they lean towards. To put it another way, in these chambers, the party that controls the chamber is playing defense in 2020.

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A Facebook comment turned into an ET Diary. We already have three US Election diaries up, but I found information I thought useful and it was use it or lose it. Control of state legislatures could be especially vital this year.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 04:54:19 PM EST
Colorado is drifting into the blue column. A problem for the Republicans is that leftover Tea Party racists and extremists are currently running the party, which makes it hard to pivot to a platform with policies that appeal to suburbanites. Even some seats in extremely conservative Douglas county are up for grabs.

https:/coloradosun.com/2020/10/18/cory-gardner-trump-senate-election-littwin-opinion

by asdf on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 04:26:55 PM EST
The current leadership and the base of the GOP constitute the biggest obstacles to their future success. Rural areas are only growing as retirement destinations.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 05:18:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Five Thirty Eight has more on this:

https:/fivethirtyeight.com/features/could-democrats-win-full-control-of-more-state-governments-than -republicans

They're picking Democrat trifectas in Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and from the above, North Carolina isn't looking unlikely either. As for what that means in practice, the last electoral cycle saw new Democrat trifectas in six states, resulting in a flood of progressive legislation on abortion, gun control, voting rights, labour rights, and so on, as well as new states joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact to effectively gut the electoral college from within.

by IdiotSavant on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 11:21:38 PM EST
Link to above 538 article
 

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 01:35:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Delaware:
by Bernard on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:29:56 PM EST
by Oui on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 11:45:01 AM EST
Maricopa County Results are listed on their website ...

Election Summary Report General Election Maricopa County - November 3, 2020

Candidate  Party  Total
TRUMP / PENCE   REP  838,071  46.76%
BIDEN / HARRIS DEM   912,585  50.92%
JORGENSEN / COHEN LBT  24,409  1.36%
Write-in   6,159  0.34%
Total Votes  1,781,224

Once tabulated, means
BIDEN WON ARIZONA!

No other conclusion, as on CNN the county was RED, now has ended BLUE!!

by Oui on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 12:16:15 PM EST
I was in extreme hurry .. wrong thread 😖
County data needs verification and tabulation on State level ...
by Oui on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 12:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 12:39:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
AG: North Dakota governor can't fill dead candidate's seat

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has no authority to appoint a coal company executive to fill a state House seat won by a Republican candidate who died before the election, the attorney general said Wednesday.

Burgum announced Wednesday that he was appointing BNI Energy President Wade Boeshans to the seat won Tuesday by David Andahl, who died last month from COVID-19.

Law and Order ... not Chaos!

by Oui on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 08:02:10 PM EST


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