Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Trump looked like a loser

by Frank Schnittger Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 04:09:09 AM EST

The second and final presidential debate was a more "normal" debate with much less interruption and incivility. Republican supporters will breath a sigh of relief that Trump didn't implode again. However the longer the debate went on the more frustrated he became, and started to look more surly, bitter, divisive and angry, especially when Biden was speaking.

Even when invited to say how he would bring people together in his inaugural address he engaged in bitter recrimination, while Biden gave his usual bringing people together speech. When challenged about the 500 children separated from their parents - Trump just said "good".

The debate won't do much to change the trajectory of the campaign, but that must count as a defeat for Trump. He needed Biden to implode, and yet Biden probably gave his strongest performance to date, and was willing to say he would phase out the oil industry over time despite his reliance on winning Pennsylvania.


For much of the debate Trump seemed to be running against Obama, which seems a strange strategy given the former President's popularity. He claimed he had done more for Blacks than any President since Lincoln and was the least racist person in the room which seemed a direct insult to the moderator who is a women of colour.

Much of Trump's shtick seemed to be to attack Biden's record in politics and his family as corrupt, when that is probably Trumps least favoured terrain to fight on. Once again Trump promised to release his tax returns when he has failed to do so for 4 years. Trying to smear his opponent with allegations that aren't clearly evidenced seems a poor strategy for winning the affections of most Americans.

Trump once again claimed the pandemic was fizzling out and that a Vaccine would become generally available within weeks when both claims are so obviously untrue. He again misquoted and attacked Dr. Fauci when he is one of the most trusted pandemic experts in the US.

One of the attractions of Trump to many in his base is that they perceive him as "an Alpha Male". But for much of the debate Biden seemed in control and Trump was the surly outsider throwing insults without having much of substance to back them up. Having attacked "sleepy Joe" "hiding out in his basement" for so much of this campaign, he gave Biden a low bar to clear. While Biden stumbled a little on a couple of his answers and looked at his watch on one occasion, Ricky Santorum, CNN's conservative panellist, seemed to be really clutching at straws to mention it. I'm sure many viewers were doing the same...

The CNN poll showed Biden as the winner with 53% to 39%. This is based on a panel who watched the debate made up of 31% Democrats, 30% Republicans and the rest independents - slightly biased towards Republicans based on current voting patterns. 73% of Biden's attacks were deemed fair whereas only 50% of Trumps attacks were deemed fair. Neither candidate's favourability ratings were changed significantly by the debate.

The race had tightened slightly in the run up to the debate with Biden's lead declining in the 538 average from 10.7% to 9.9% and the Real Clear Politics average declining from 10.3% to 7.9% so to a small extent Biden needed to halt the decline. Most observers seemed to conclude he did enough to steady the ship.

Display:
Decline in poll average due to a few outlier results ... couldn't quite figure out the funding or affiliation of ... IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen.

RealClearPolitics

The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump's 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD's polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate. Likewise, the IBD/TIPP Poll correctly predicted that President Obama would outperform expectations in 2012.

by Oui on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 08:07:15 AM EST
2016 was one of those two 'stopped clock' days when IBD/TIPP was right. They are biased towards the right wing.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 02:42:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The CNN poll showed Biden as the winner with 53% to 39%. This based on a panel made up of 31% Democrats, 30 % Republicans and the rest independents.

If we assume that partisans stuck to their man, we get a split of independents 22% Biden - 9% Trump - 9% none.

That is a pretty big win. Then of course, the ones who did not see the debate, or just saw pieces of the debate, will be propagandised from both sides about their man winning!

by fjallstrom on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 10:18:52 AM EST
Yea, CNN had a focus group panel of undecided North Carolina voters - a key demographic - watching the debate, and their conclusion was:

Who won the debate?

Biden 11 votes
Trump 0 votes
Draw 2 votes

Not exactly a large sample size, so make of it what you want...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 10:57:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump: "401(k)s will go to hell".

Pollstet Frank Lutz:
Trump won the final debate but Biden `won the war' | CNBC Squawk Box |

Trump went negative, arguing why Biden would be bad for the country rather than really answering the question. "If he gets in, you will have a depression the likes of which you've never seen. Your 401(k)s will go to hell, and it'll be a very very sad day for this country," the president said.

The Worst Political Predictions of 2016

Frank Luntz on Twitter, November 8, 2016: "Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States."

by Oui on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 12:37:24 PM EST
Frank, I am glad you conclude that Trump lost. I could not even finish watching. I have to watch my blood pressure these days and, in any case, I am incapable of being dispassionate about a choice between a wannabe fascist dictator and even a DNC centrist Democrat.

The choice is what it is. But, for what it is worth, I failed to see how Trump's performance could have persuaded any but his already fervent supporters to support him. An obnoxious candidate with a badly deformed personality is not a pretty thing to watch - unless one identifies with him.

Trump only leads Biden by one point among men and trails Biden by fourteen points among women. Most women are not impressed by Trump's 'Alpha Male' act. Instead Trump comes across as an Alpha Ape. The Gender Gap rules.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 03:04:13 PM EST
Trump repeated Fox News and other Right Wing Bubble Machine propaganda leaving 75% of the audience scratching their heads wondering what he talking about.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 03:22:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Biden's lead declining in the 538 average from 10.7% to 9.9%

Meaningless statistical noise.  Rasmussen dropped a ton of their lying BS and moved the numbers.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 03:15:36 PM EST
For example, they have Trump's Presidential Approval at +3

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 03:17:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rasmusson is more Republican PR tool than legitimate polling. Were they legitimate they would have changed their sample methods years ago, but their 'bias' is a feature, not a bug. Trafalgar is about the same.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 08:22:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's 9.5% this morning.  It could be statistical noise, but it looks to me like Trump's share shifting to roughly his approval rating.  He was underperforming it by a point or so.  And Rasmussen's polls don't have that huge effect on 538 that they do on RCP.

We also just don't have a lot of polling right now.  I'm assuming all the big dogs are either in the field or prepping to go into the field for their final snapshots.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 11:43:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
People who look at the Congressional districts are saying the national numbers are 2 to 4 points below what the districts are indicating.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 02:46:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Political nerds better get to high ground. Blue Tsunami incoming!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 07:10:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FBI a lucky catch in Kannapolis, NC.

Washington state man arrested in N.C., accused of deadly threats against Joe Biden

His actions regarding Biden and other evidence against him were cited as reasons for his pretrial detention by the judge in an order signed Oct. 6.

Suffering from Asperger ... reminds me of the school shooting in Newtown, CT.

"A timeline of internet searches conducted by Defendant between March and May 2020 seeking information about Joe Biden's home address, state gun laws, rifle parts, and night vision goggles, along with actions taken by Defendant, including posting the above mentioned meme about killing Joe Biden, purchasing an AR-15 in New Hampshire, traveling to a Wendy's within 4 miles of Joe Biden's home, and writing a checklist note ending with execute," the order said.

by Oui on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 05:07:03 PM EST
The 'obvious' Winner of the final debate ...

Political pundits noted the calmer and less chaotic scene than in the first Trump-Biden showdown in Cleveland

by Oui on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 06:44:25 PM EST
To me it didn't look like Welker had much control after the intital two minute interruption free periods each candidate had. Trump would utter some lie, Biden would respond and then Trump would say "I want to respond to that" and talk for another two to five minutes. It was pathetic. The mute button needs to be in play the entire time.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 08:25:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not a witness ... I knew I couldn't stomach this game of jousting between two elderly men. Did my best not to view any reporting of the debate today. I can live happily without the anger ... just 11 days!
by Oui on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 09:05:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
in the rear-view mirror
by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 10:01:23 PM EST
It's no surprise ignorant hick white Evangelical bigots are going with Trump.  In 2016 whites were 60% of the vote and they went 75% for Trump.  So oddly the 72-73% is a drop from 2016 and one he cannot afford.  According to Pew Research the white percentage of total vote has dropped from 68% in 2000 to 58% in 2018 or 0.055% per year.  So can we predict the percentage will drop to 56% in the this election?

It's going to be a nail biter.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 10:49:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
58%? That's not what census bureau calculated.
by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 11:00:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
WSB-TV/Landmark polls

President Trump widens lead over Joe Biden in latest exclusive WSB-TV poll

About 64% of Trump voters are planning to wait until Election Day compared to only 29% for Biden voters.

The vast majority of Biden supporters say they'll either vote early or by absentee ballot.

Looking closer at the demographics, the poll shows Trump with a big lead among white voters in Georgia with 72% favoring him.

Contrary to what's happening nationwide, Trump leads among seniors in Georgia by 10%.

Will 64% of Trump voters show up at the polls ... and what will they decide after curtain is closed? 😇🤣

by Oui on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 10:52:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Closing the gap ... Trump's recovery stalls at 8.1% (RealClearPolitics) and 9.1% (538 of Nate Silver) ... all depends on final turnout and total of discarded mail-in ballots in crucial swing States.

US election polls tracker: who is leading in the swing states?

by Oui on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 08:05:38 PM EST
by Oui on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 09:21:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Already looking for income elsewhere ...

A bit of extra PR never hurts 😄 just ten days.

by Oui on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 09:43:19 PM EST
Unfortunately for the Kushners, the folks behind the Lincoln Project are not impressed by candy-ass threats "empty bluster".
"Your clients are no longer Upper East Side socialites, able to sue at the slightest offense to their personal sensitivities."

by Bernard on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 09:22:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
VP Pence Close Aids - Covid-19 Task Force - Caimpaign Rhetoric - Rounding the Corner

Economic growth under Trump is forecast to be the smaller than under any president since the Great Depression

Coronavirus: Mike Pence continues campaign tour despite chief of staff's positive test

Trump appoints VP Pence as point man corona pandemic task force

by Oui on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 11:56:18 AM EST

Trump's Last Stand | TIME |

by Oui on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 12:42:42 PM EST
Citing Catholic social teaching and doctrine, and an abiding patriotism rooted in faith, Sr. Simone remarked:

"Catholics cannot be true to their faith and vote for Donald Trump in November. Every day, I see the cracks in our nation's foundational values growing wider. President Trump is doing everything in his power to divide us, while our economy and health care systems collapse under the weight of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a spiritual crisis, and our faith and patriotism compel us to speak and to act."

Biden Praises "Nuns On The Bus" Tour After 63 Events in Critical Swing States Across America to Rally Catholic Voters

A newly established religious community seeking the ways of the Lord, lost their bearing in a false god ... they are not alone.

Children of Mary
A New Community in the Service of the Church to satiate the Thirst of Jesus to be loved in the Most Blessed Sacrament

November 4, 2016 Archbishop Dennis Schnurr erected our semi-contemplative religious Community Children of Mary as a Public Association of the Faithful.

Children of Mary Establish Local Motherhouse - Nov. 21, 2016

Pope rejects meeting with Pompeo, citing US election

Catholic leader doesn't want to be used for political purposes in a photo-op.

by Oui on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 08:00:06 PM EST
The nun who founded the congregation had lived for many years as a hermit ... a life of prayer and labour - ora et labora.

She lived the next eleven years in silence and solitude in a primitive hermitage with neither electricity nor running water. Her days consisted of prayer and hard manual labor. Her spiritual director at the time suggested that she may have the vocation of a hermit ...

Spiritual purpose .. prayer for priests and the apostolates of hospitality, working among the elderly, praying for the dying and retreat work.

More: including prison ministry and Hospice visits.

Ah ... the dying and Hospice visits ... the nuns were present for serious business 😄 ... a dying campaign.

by Oui on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 09:09:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Their legal team is not a bunch of nuns
by asdf on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 09:31:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Vatican papal letter on fraternity in an era of globalization and self interest.
by Oui on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 10:39:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 08:04:04 AM EST
Let them die ...

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows: `We are not going to control the Pandemic'.

In other words our choice is to let her rip ... it's just like the flu ... we'll let Big Pharma take care of it with therapeutische and the novel vaccines ...

>> HERD IMMUNITY <<

Same old as Conservatives in Europe with the UK - Belgium - Netherlands and France in the lead.

Mark Rutte didn't misspeak in March :: From Outbreak to a Global Pandemic

Meadows says we're not going to control the pandemic

President Donald Trump has long compared Covid-19 to the flu, which experts have resoundingly rejected as inaccurate and "morally reprehensible."

Meadows later said on CNN that the administration is "making efforts to contain" the coronavirus but that what is important is "to make sure people don't die from this."

"When we look at the number of cases increasing, what we have to do is make sure we fight it with therapeutics and vaccines, take proper mitigation factors in terms of social distancing and masks when we can," Meadows said. "And when we look at this, we're going to defeat it, because we're Americans."

...
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden responded to Meadows in a statement released later Sunday, saying the administration "has given up on even trying to control this pandemic, that they've given up on their basic duty to protect the American people."

"This wasn't a slip by Meadows, it was a candid acknowledgement of what President Trump's strategy has clearly been from the beginning of this crisis: to wave the white flag of defeat and hope that by ignoring it, the virus would simply go away," Biden added. "It hasn't, and it won't."

by Oui on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 11:59:05 AM EST
The message he cannot effectively communicate is:

The CDC, as agency of record, is prepared to designate SARS-Cov-2--like influenza types A,B--an endemic pathogen. Epidemiological, virological, and clinical literature describing mutations of the virus which causes COVID-19, here and "over there", has sufficiently accumulated to foreclose a rational explanation for immunization ("pathway").

Over years--say, five--of morbidity and mortality "surveillance" of COVID-19, combined with periodic, generic vaccine assays and clinical therapies, a cyclical rate of infection ("season") will displace, then replace, the frequency and scope of incident reports ("outbreaks") in the public imagination of "risk," remedy, and invincibility.

Where there is no remedy, crisis management for public consumption assumes language of "control" rather than mastery of death. That is a calculated story of morbidity, or probability of survival, attributable to elaborate, mysterious ("heroic") medical regimens. Just so, "normal" burdens of living solve "abnormal" rituals of immortality.

archive Sat Jan 18th, 2020

by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 03:40:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 03:18:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 04:27:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nate Silver has a podcast up in which he says the race may have tightened from 10+ to 9+ points at a national level, but that this is not reflected in the statewide polls which were always more like 9% in the first place.

But he made an interesting observation that there may be some "herding" going on where pollsters are reluctant to report polls too far outside the mainstream (say Biden +11 or +4) to avoid being embarrassed by the final outcome. The exception being obviously partisan polls like Trafalgar and Rasmussen which seem to be trying to skew the averages by releasing lost of polls.

His other interesting observation was that this "herding" phenomenon is not evident in congressional district level polling because they do not influence national or statewide averages and no one is going to remember a district poll afterwards anyway, so pollster embarrassment is less of an issue.

538 haven't done a systematic analysis of Congressional district level polls, but anecdotally they appear to favour Biden (and Democrat congressional candidates) more than national or statewide polls.

When you add in the early voting data, what evidence we do have appears to suggest that Democrats are more likely to out perform rather than underperform the polls this year, in stark contrast to 2016.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 12:48:31 PM EST
I am more than careful in accepting an analysis, even by Nate Silver. He too was quite optimistic in 2016 and so many fell flat on their face. Too many mail-in ballots are discarded and my theorem is the Democrats need to overcome  5% handicap in vote counting. So I'll accept the promising lead of the Great Lakes region, however IA, GA, NC, SC and FL will more likely stay Red.

by Oui on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 01:26:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Florida convicted felons allowed to vote for 1st time in presidential election after completing sentences | ABC News |

"Florida used to have the worst system in the country when it came to felony disenfranchisement," said Julie Ebenstein, a senior staff attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union's voting rights project. When Amendment 4 was passed, about 1.6 million convicted felons who completed their sentences in the state were not allowed to vote.

"Politicians in Florida, unfortunately, in 2019 passed a law that interpreted all terms of sentence to include payment of legal financial obligation."

Like in many other states, people in Florida are charged various fines when they are convicted of an offense. The ACLU, along with several other groups, sued to block the financial requirement, but this September, a federal appeals court ruled that former felons are required to pay all expenses before they can vote.

Oh wait a minute, it's Florida after all! The swamp ... 😡

Florida ruled felons must pay to vote. Now, it doesn't know how many can. | Tampa Bay News |

Florida officials have not removed any felons from the rolls for owing fines or fees, and they're unlikely to do so before Election Day, Secretary of State Laurel Lee said in an interview Monday. It's unclear whether those whom the state fails to prune are entitled to vote after all -- or may face prosecution if they do.

With so much in flux, the winner of Florida's closely watched presidential vote could be decided by the courts for the second time in two decades.

Did anyone ever mention that Democracy in the New World is quite complex ... manmade. 😉 God was not part of it's creation, blind Trust. Oh, that's Justice in DC!

Ashcroft in 2002: "No  longer will the 'Spirit of Justice' bare her breast". Time for Americans to take off the blindfolds ... and wear masks.

by Oui on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 02:37:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Latest Rasmussen (!) National poll shows Trump with a one point lead. 😖 All Republican voters can relax now, by uncertainty the Roberts college with Barrett on the bench will do the rest. Spooks of 2000 when the turn of the Century became a right turn of Civilization and Xenophobia as a political war cry. Shame. BLM
by Oui on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 07:41:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

In a concurrence, Kavanaugh cited Bush v. Gore as a reason against extending the deadline

"In Bush v. Gore, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that re-counting ballots in different ways violated the Constitution's Equal Protection Clause and 5-4 that no constitutional recount could be held before the members of the Electoral College were scheduled to officially cast their votes on Dec. 18. With that, five weeks after Election Day, Bush won Florida and thus the presidency, by 537 votes--out of about six million cast in the state." -- Time

Brett Kavanaugh's Wisconsin Ruling Lays the Groundwork to Hand Trump the Election | Vanity Fair |

by Oui on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 06:24:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
sinister salon RETCON enveloping the twitterverse of FIFTH WAVE Nader-nay-sayers...

tl;dr docket

What was the question?

by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 07:04:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ancestor worship is not well understood.
Anomie is not well understood.
Democracy is not well understood.
Rule of law is not well understood.
Electoral college is not well understood.
by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 07:08:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 07:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

piece of paper: "We also note that Thompson expresses extreme personal hostility toward Bush, calling him in one recent article a 'madman,' a 'despot,' and 'a man without honor, 'a leader without conscience and a human being without a shred of decency or humanity.'"
by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 07:24:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Bush v. Gore, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that re-counting ballots in different ways violated the Constitution's Equal Protection Clause

How do the extra 2 electors for each state not violate the Equal Protection Clause? They could have said that Bush v. Gore was not a precedent; has Kavanaugh put an end to that argument?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 10:36:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I preface my response with my position: #US Americans devoted to "democracy" should take electoral responsibility for the composition and acts of the state government where they reside; politics is local is sovereign; misplaced appeals to the supremacy clause d/b/a acts of congress (ex interstate commerce) or acts of executive authority to remedy civil rights complaints rarely succeed in review of articles of the constitution: incorporation doctrine, NB. christ Ginsburg for the majority. This is the salient, general lesson of historical judicial resistance to "broad" rulings of federal authority and "narrow" rulings of bill of rights, ostensibly prohibiting contravention of those amdts by any state. Also, never forget 10th amdt, Art. I, sec.4, or when and why or why not congress enacts authorities "implied," IOW, "not delegated" to congress.

-- Learn to Code independent and dependent variables--26 NOV, 8 DEC @ SCOFL "undervotes", 9 DEC @ SCOTUS, 12 Dec FL statutory deadline, FEDERAL "safe harbor" formula. (excerpts from Bush v. Gore)

The individual citizen has no federal constitutional right to vote for electors for the President of the United States unless and until the state legislature chooses a statewide election as the means to implement its power to appoint members of the electoral college. U. S. Const., Art. II, § 1. [...] The right to vote is protected in more than the initial allocation of the franchise. Equal protection applies as well to the manner of its exercise. Having once granted the right to vote on equal terms, the State may not, by later arbitrary and disparate treatment, value one person's vote over that of another
this statement: In Bush v. Gore, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that re-counting ballots in different ways violated the Constitution's Equal Protection Clause is conclusory, functionally incomplete.

(SCOTUS Q1) That statement omits review of Art II, sec. 2, specifically standing order enacted by CONGRESS, 3 U. S. C. §5, because it's a run-on sentence which definitively remedies defective execution of STATE "election code": when the code fails to produce a "bona fide" slate of electors (bound to the "bona fide winner"; see Chiafo v Washington, 2020), § 5 prescribes graceful degradation of controversy to minimum STATE "election code" a/o appointment date minus 6 days ("safe harbor").

(SCOTUS Q2) That statement omits the STATE's "election code" which limits "equal protection" (due process) to the fixed date 12 DEC rather than mandatory obligations and uniform duties, ie. ballot validation, complete count; SCOFL prescribed paranormal activity to contested county polling stations

The Florida Supreme Court has ordered that the intent of the voter be discerned from such ballots.
as if to implement "equal protection" of ballots the state did not and could not provide by 12 DEC.
JUSTICE BREYER'S proposed remedy--remanding to the Florida Supreme Court for its ordering of a constitutionally proper contest until December 18--contemplates action in violation of the Florida Election Code, and hence could not be part of an "appropriate" order authorized by Fla. Stat. Ann. § 102.168(8) (Supp. 2001).
dissent
lt hardly needs stating that Congress, pursuant to 3 U. S. C. § 5, did not impose any affirmative duties upon the States that their governmental branches could "violate." [...] In the interest of finality, however, the majority effectively orders the disenfranchisement of an unknown number of voters whose ballots reveal their intent-and are therefore legal votes under state law-but were for some reason rejected by ballot-counting machines. It does so on the basis of the deadlines set forth in Title 3 of the United States Code. Ante, at 110. But, as I have already noted, those provisions merely provide rules of decision for Congress to follow [?!] when selecting among conflicting slates of electors. Supra, at 124. They do not prohibit a State from counting what the majority concedes to be legal votes until a bona fide winner is determined.
circular reasoning of the problem as the remedy (recursion)
--
Q. How do the extra 2 electors for each state not violate the Equal Protection Clause?
A1. See Q1, Q2, Art. I, Sec. 2 re: electors. A2. Per Curiam decisions are by definition not binding instructions, final orders. However informed by the merit case re: error of law, SCOFL reversed its recount order 11 Dec. A3. Apportionment of electors is not the question presented by either Bush v, or DNC v. However, 2/state est'd de minimis STATE representation in federal gov; browse founders.archives.gov artifacts.

Wait for Census2020 Litigation Vortex from HELL in 2021.

by Cat on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 04:31:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 09:36:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but where in the law does it state that 1+1=2 and that you have to use the same counting system for Republican and Democratic party votes?

1+1=2 is clearly a fake news conspiracy made up by over-educated libruls to do down the common man.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 09:42:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Texas Supreme Court upholds governor's order for one ballot drop-off site per county

The Texas Supreme Court on Tuesday upheld Gov. Greg Abbott's order limiting counties to one drop-off site for absentee ballots, dealing a blow to Democrats and voting rights groups that won a temporary injunction blocking the mandate.

"The Governor's October Proclamation provides Texas voters more ways to vote in the November 3 election than does the Election Code. It does not disenfranchise anyone," the court said in its ruling.

by Oui on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 08:12:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
long view, Frank
by Cat on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 04:48:58 PM EST
The last Quinipiac poll for Texas revealed a tie. Two others conducted by the Texas University put Biden ahead (even if marginally), but with clear momentum on Biden's side.

Seven million people already voted in Texas. In 2016 less than nine million folk cast their ballot in that state. As everywhere else in the US, looks like record turn out is in the making.

By the looks of it, at least 50 million more folk will vote in 2020 than in 2016. That is about a 50% increase. And numbers north of 170 million are not unthinkable. With so many new voters, can polls really capture the ground truth? What a thriller of an election.



luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 05:03:44 PM EST

The equivalent figure of 2016 138 Million - a 58.1% turnout. Thus a 170 Million turnout would represent a  23% increase. Most estimates for projected 2020 turnout I have seen are around the 150 Million mark, a more modest 8.7% increase.

Turnout over the last 100 years has been in the 50-63% range.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 07:20:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
V.A.P. ?


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 12:41:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 10:24:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
AP wants to reclaim 170-year-old authority from electproject with "undervotes" reported by stringers with eyes on county clerks.
Millions of mail ballots not yet returned in key states, 28 Oct
At least 35 million mail ballots had been returned or accepted as of early Wednesday, according to data collected by The Associated Press. That surpasses the 33.3 million total mail ballots returned during the 2016 election, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.
versus 51,246,523 + walk-ins

For a number of reasons, past absentee ballot volume isn't a useful benchmark of "turnout". AP is not the only news publisher with difficulty adjusting to this multi-modal, disease-ridden, 40-day+ "Election Day".  

by Cat on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 02:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How the U.S. early vote surge is shaping Trump, Biden endgames
Across the 20 states that publish the party registration of ["]early["] voters, more than 17.4 million registered Democrats had voted by Wednesday compared with 10.8 million registered Republicans, according to figures compiled by the U.S. Elections Project at the University of Florida.
electproject prints 27,349,231 "in-person" ballots (NAME visible, gov ID), 51,246,523 "mail ballots" (NAME visible, envelope window) returned a/o 29 Oct. NAME is the only way to associate voter with PARTY registration in state database records...and arrest duplicate new and old  entries.
About 47 million Americans who have voted so far either are not affiliated with a party or live in a state that does not publicly report a voter's party affiliation.
What message is this publisher attempting to communicate with a string of non sequiturs?
More than 75 million Americans had already cast ballots as of Wednesday. That's by far the most-ever in early voting, and it's more than half the final turnout of 138 million votes recorded in the 2016 election. The STAGGERING figures have prompted some analysts to predict the highest turnout rate in a century.
61.65% registered voters, 2008. 228M eligible (VAP), 153M registered, or 66.9%2018
The actual votes for each candidate won't be known until polls close, perhaps with a lag of days or more.
by Cat on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 04:05:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know if this is bad new or good news:

Three heavily populated suburban Dem leaning counties in Texas have now passed their total 2016 vote.

What it says to me is the Likely Voter screens based on 2016 and 2018 voter participation are not reflection of the 2020 voter demographic.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 05:34:39 PM EST
sigh

"reflective"


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 05:35:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"We're Watching an Incumbent Self-Destruct": Polling Guru Who Predicted Trump's 2016 Win Is Betting On Biden

Wasserman covers congressional races for the nonpartisan and widely respected Cook Political Report. He has a microscopic understanding of what is happening around the country politically. And I sat down with him for Sunday night's episode of Showtime's The Circus, a weekly assessment of the campaign shitshow. Some of our conversation appeared on air; some was left on the cutting-room floor.

After talking with him I came away with the sense that Trump is not just toast, but burnt toast. To use a poker metaphor: In the last election, Trump won by pulling an inside straight to win. This time he'll need nothing short of a royal flush--by pulling an ace from his sleeve.



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 09:42:02 PM EST
From the link:

in October his lead has actually gone up as President Trump's handling of COVID--and his own illness--has come under skepticism from seniors. And we've seen the 65-plus vote, in particular, blow wide open. Joe Biden had been ahead by five among seniors for much of the year. Now his lead is more like nine. Keep in mind, Donald Trump carried seniors by five in 2016.

A 14 point shift among the old folks means Trump will lose Florida and Arizona and that's the ballgame.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 09:45:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
After talking with him I came away with the sense that Trump is not just toast, but burnt toast. To use a poker metaphor: In the last election, Trump won by pulling an inside straight to win. This time he'll need nothing short of a royal flush--by pulling an ace from his sleeve.

I hope none of these people actually play poker given their understanding of odds.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 11:16:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If they do I want to be in the game.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 02:48:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An unexpected, commendable summary of Generally Accepted Ballot Processing (GABP) among the states, or A skeptic's guide to Election Day 2020 APsplained "results"

possibly related sampling error forthcoming ...

by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 05:08:37 PM EST

Blow-out lead in Wisconsin, a sign of Trump's hapless war on Covid-19 ...

Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that's now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases, with a 53% increase in average daily cases in the past two weeks, a record number of hospitalizations and a 112% jump in deaths. That compares with a closer 52-46% in mid-September.

by Oui on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 10:31:57 AM EST
by Oui on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 03:37:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is stunning news.

Biden's Path to 270 Widens, Trump's Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up

Statewide and district level polling show Biden running strong in and around metro suburban parts of the state, but underperforming with Latino voters. In his analysis of the New York Times/Siena poll (10/20-25) of the state, the New York Times' Nate Cohn writes that "Biden has a lead of only 57 percent to 34 percent among that group, somewhat beneath most estimates of Mrs. Clinton's support among Hispanic voters four years ago. The finding broadly tracks with national surveys, which have shown Mr. Trump improving among Hispanic voters compared with his 2016 standing. Similarly, Hispanic voters in the Times/Siena poll say they backed Mrs. Clinton by a margin of 60 percent to 29 percent."

But, it's also the case that we don't have a whole lot of experience with Texas as a battleground state. Neither do national pollsters. In an analysis of polling errors in 2016 and 2018, my colleague David Wasserman wrote this week that polls in the Southwest "undershot Democrats' final margin in 17 of 19 cases, including by an average of 1.4 points in 2016 and 4.2 points in 2018."



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 03:58:19 PM EST
Particularly noteworthy, because Cook Political tends to be pretty small-c conservative with its ratings changes.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 10:31:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Monmouth University rated A+ by 538 dropped a bunch of Georgia polls today.  They have Biden leading by 3.6% with a range of +2 to +5.  

The 270 to Win Pundit Map has Biden at 290 Electoral Votes without any of the toss-up states: Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio..  Those are all states where Biden is competitive.  

For Trump to be re-elected he has to take all the toss-up states and grab some combination of 22 Electoral Votes now polling for Biden.  Not impossible but with suburban voters moving decisively to Democrats it doesn't seem likely.

   

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 04:17:08 AM EST
Told ya Georgia could wind up interesting. :P

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 10:58:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All right.  You were right, I was wrong.

You do have to admit I had solid reasons for being skeptical.

LA Times:

"Young people in Georgia have expanded their vote by 82% to more than 340,000."

If young Georgians follow the national 70/30 D/R split that right there almost erases Trump's 211,000 margin of victory and the increase in black vote should flip the state to Biden.

You see?  All those shy Biden voters!  :-)


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 02:56:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Georgia, like Texas, has two things going for it:

The Kids Today and The Wine Moms.

But, unlike Texas, Georgia was only a 5-point kind of race four years ago.  The swing needed isn't as large.

Again, gun-to-my-head, I'm still of the "Trump narrowly holds both" view, but it won't be at all shocking if Biden carries Georgia (and at this point Texas certainly isn't out of the question).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 03:50:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Georgia more progressive than Florida: Who'd have thunk?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 04:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not if you read the two polls today out of Florida.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 05:39:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Florida latest polls

Interesting ... high volatility ... Floridians hit by Blue hammer?

by Oui on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 05:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, just a dearth of polls from the high-quality crowd recently.

Biden +8-10 national but only 0-2 in Florida never made much sense to me.

Florida's pretty reliably about R+3 or R+4 vs the popular vote.  I can imagine 5, maybe even 6, because at some point you run into a ceiling, I suspect, but prior to today the polling didn't make much sense to me.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 06:34:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So yeah, Marist and Monmouth are around what I'd figure.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 06:35:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump Challenged the China Virus - America's Might Failed Miserably ... Final Reckoning Next Week's Election

Jared Kushner and his shadow corona unit: what is Trump's son-in-law up to? | The Guardian - Apr. 5, 2020 |

As the leader of the federal government effort to distribute emergency equipment to the states, Kushner, the president's son-in-law, has mostly shied from the public stage, but he now is working in history's spotlight.

His vast responsibilities include weighing requests from governors for aid and coordinating with private companies to obtain medical equipment, work he carries out from a special post created for him inside the Federal Emergency Management Agency, where his team is called "the Slim Suit crowd" for their distinctive tailoring, the New York Times has reported.

by Oui on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 10:00:08 AM EST
Gov. Laura Kelly orders flags to be lowered to half-staff after Kansas passes 1,000 COVID-19 deaths

Nothing learned from first wave of the SARS Covid-2 deaths ... the SYMBOL of Trump's tenure, flying "Old Glory" half-staff.

by Oui on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 10:33:35 AM EST
We should have well over half the vote in by the end of the day today.  Most anticipate turnout to be around 155m.  We finished yesterday at 76.5m (up about 5.5m from Tuesday night).

Hawaii will likely surpass its total 2016 turnout.  Texas may surpass its total 2016 turnout tomorrow (it'll be close).

Washington and Montana are already over 80% of 2016.
 Several states should hit 80% of 2016 today: New Mexico, Tennessee, Georgia and North Carolina.  Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and Florida will be approaching 80%.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 10:51:16 AM EST
Almost impossible to overstate how bad this is for Republicans.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 03:03:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm still reluctant to forecast off the VBM/IPEV vote.

I do think it bodes well that turnout looks like it will be very high (by our standards anyway).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 03:54:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Young voters are coming out in record numbers in both Texas and Georgia.  In numbers greater than Trump's winning margins in both states.  These are voters who wouldn't pass the Likely Voter screen because they probably didn't vote in 2016 and weren't old enough to vote in 2012.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 09:57:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final Florida polls from Monmouth and Marist.

Monmouth:

Biden 51
Trump 45

Marist:

Biden 51
Trump 47

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 05:40:48 PM EST
We're now at 80.2m.  Should hit 82m or so tonight.

Over halfway there now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 07:38:05 PM EST
Them's just crazy numbers.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 10:03:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final Quinnipiac polls from Pennsyltucky, Ohio and Florida.

PA:

Biden 51
Trump 44

Ohio:

Biden 48
Trump 43

Florida (it's Quinnipiac so lol):

Biden 45
Trump 42

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 07:43:38 PM EST


Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 07:48:47 PM EST
* BREAKING *

Seems Joe Biden's presidency has a higher priority Glenn ... thank you for years of support 😐

by Oui on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 08:12:06 PM EST
[Update 4,293 10/29/2020 16.16 EDT] Cancel culture finally forced me to quit my job.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 08:16:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Event description ...

Inauguration on January 20 .. tickets on sale!

Join us in witnessing the inauguration ceremonies of President Joseph Biden Jr. and Vice President Kamala D. Harris of the United States.

Washington DC - How will the Trump family manage when they are served subpoena's and can't leave the country under Court Order ... further chaos guaranteed. 🤣 🔚

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 08:42:17 PM EST
Crowd Chants "Lock Him Up" At Trump During World Series

United States as OAS member transforms to South American style of governing, authoritarian as in a dictatorship promising "bedlam" as painted by Trump ahead of November 3 ..

'Lock him up!': Donald Trump agrees with supporters at Georgia rally who chant Joe Biden should be in jail - then jokes [?] he'll have to leave the country if he loses

Speaking in Goodyear, Arizona, Trump slammed Biden as "the worst candidate ever.

Michigan governor pushes back against Trump rally chants

"Winner takes ALL ...
Loser faces jail time."

by Oui on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 11:57:11 AM EST


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