Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

The gathering storm

by Frank Schnittger Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 09:29:21 PM EST

For a variety of reasons, I have been internet free for the past couple of days, so today has been about playing catchup in an attempt to discover what, if anything, has changed in the US election. As always, there is a danger that you get caught up in a bubble of partisan thinking, and simply don't understand some of the many changes under way.

Certainly there have been some negatives in the data from a European point of view. Biden is said to be doing less well with Latino/Hispanic voters than Clinton did. The addition of Harris to the ticket hasn't made some black voters feel any less taken for granted. Texas still feels slightly out of reach, not helped by Biden's comments about transitioning away from oil in the second Presidential debate.

But the reality is you have to dig pretty hard to find negative data about the prospects of the Democratic party and its candidates at all levels of the election. More and more Senate seats seem to be in play and polls at Congressional district level have been outpacing the national polls for quite some time. Biden's lead has stayed remarkably steady and solid in the 7-11% range for the past few months, and even "lean Republican" states like Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio seem to be trending his way.


The point is Biden doesn't need to win any of those states to win the electoral college, and with Trump 2016 states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania firmly in the Democratic camp his victory is assured bar any but the most outrageous polling error or last minute swing in voter sentiment.

So far Trump's attempts to gin up some dodgy Hunter Biden dossier into a "Comey moment" has been an abject failure. With 81 million voters having already voted (59% of the total 2016 vote) and so few remaining undecided voters available to be persuaded, all the risks are on Trump's downside and a landslide of historic proportions against an incumbent is quite a distinct possibility.  Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 47% to 30% among the roughly half of those early voters whose party affiliation is known, and Biden is favoured in polls amongst the 23% of ballots posted by registered independents who have voted to date.

The early voting stats were always expected to favour Democrats as they have traditionally dominated mail and early voting, but those proportions have remained remarkably constant as early voting has progressed. Republicans would want to win Election day in a landslide to make up the increasing deficit in absolute numbers in their vote. This puts them at the mercy of inclement weather, technical hitches, and long queues should voting on election day be any way depressed.

Nate Silver has consistently listed Pennsylvania as the most likely "tipping point" State, the most marginal state which will determine which candidate will win the electoral college majority. He lists Biden as having a 5.2% edge in the average polls there, enough to give him an 86% chance of winning the state. Others beg to differ and feel the polls are again underestimating the enthusiasm of Trump supporters. It would certainly take a polling error of major proportions to make their wishes come true.

The elephant in the room is, of course, the ongoing Covid 19 pandemic, which shows every sign of getting worse, despite Trump's attempts to wish it away. The pandemic is getting ever worse in key mid-western states and eroding Trump's approval ratings amongst seniors and rural voters vital to his hopes. Although the pandemic initially struck hardest in many Democratic leaning cities, the more recent growth in infections has been predominantly in Republican leaning states. Much more of this, and a gathering Democratic tide could turn into a flood.

Display:
Surely the elephant in the room is Republican cheating, vote-suppression, and the Supreme Court? Because on the polling, that is looking like the only way Trump will "win".
by IdiotSavant on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 09:33:15 PM EST
Important as these issues are, they are not listed as high as the pandemic in voters main concerns, and tend to only reinforce voter's initial allegiances - whereas Covid is striking at the very heart to Republican voters.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 09:37:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure. But that's about voting. The problem is that the voting might not actually matter, because one party explicitly rejects it as the foundation of legitimacy and has expressed a willingness to ignore democracy to retain power. And with a baked in majority on the Supreme Court, they might be able to get away with it if the result isn't decisive enough to give them no wiggle room whatsoever.
by IdiotSavant on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 10:16:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Fill out [......] Perdue = Trump

by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 01:45:20 AM EST
That well could be one more Democratic Senate seat right there.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 02:35:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Christ, did Ossoff actually figure out how to be a decent candidate over the last two years?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 03:49:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Defeat is a harsh instructor. At the very least Ossoff will be an improvement over Sonny Perdue - low bar that.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 06:52:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
David, not Sonny.

Sonny's the old hick governor who prayed for rain when Lake Lanier nearly dried up back in 2008 or whenever it was.  He's the Agriculture Secretary now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 10:10:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The rain must have come...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 11:05:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Defeat is a harsh instructor. Miracles do happen. At the VERY least he is an improvement on Perdue.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 08:09:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A viral dossier about Hunter Biden was written by "Martin Aspen," a fake identity whose profile picture was created by artificial intelligence.
(TyphoonInvesti1 / via Twitter)

Elise Thomas, a researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, first spotted telltale signs of a fake photo when she went searching for Typhoon Investigations' Aspen on the web. Thomas found a Twitter account for Aspen named @TyphoonInvesti1, which had posted a link to Typhoon's WordPress page that contained the document on Aug. 15.

The profile picture for Aspen immediately showed signs of being a computer-generated image that can be created by computers and even some websites. Aspen's ears were asymmetrical, for one, but his left eye is what gave away that he did not really exist. Aspen's left iris juts out and appears to form a second pupil, a somewhat frequent error with computer-generated faces.

Other parts of Aspen's identity were clearly stolen from disparate parts of the web. Aspen's Facebook page was created in August, and it featured only two pictures, both from his "new house," which were tracked back to reviews on the travel website Tripadvisor. The logo for Typhoon Investigations was lifted from the Taiwan Fact-Checking Center, a digital literacy nonprofit.

by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 01:47:14 AM EST
What is your take on the Greenwald departure from The Intercept on Joe and Hunter Biden topic ?

Now what ?
by pi (etrib@opsec.eu) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 12:54:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Greenwald's piece is well worth reading in its entirety. The content of Hunter Biden's e-mails has now been confirmed by various people, including one of his business associates. In other circumstances, people simply refuse to deny the content.

This is no longer an unconfirmed story like the so called Steele Dossier. The account of how these e-mails were obtained is very doubtful, it is possible Russian intelligence was indeed involved. But that does not erase the role Obama's administration had in the coup in Ukraine, and the involvement of various personalities in the politics and economics of the country in the aftermath.

If the Trump menace ever goes way, Burisma is certain to come back to haunt Biden. After 2016, the Democratic party should have learnt its lesson and cut off with these "establishment" figures. But here we are.

Final thought: would you trust entities like NBC or Facebook over Greenwald?  

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 04:31:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmmm.
https:/www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/how-fake-persona-laid-groundwork-hunter-biden-conspiracy-delug e-n1245387?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

And then there is this:
https:
thispersondoesnotexist.com

The smell of Russian disinformation campaigns are all over this. And the best disinformation has a grain of truth to it.

by Averett on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 04:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NBC and the CIA do not like Greenwald. What else is new?

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 06:56:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have no particular view on the Hunter Biden sideshow ... Giuliani and fake report created by AI.

Been mostly a fan of Glenn Greenwald from the period he was @TheGuardian.

Today I leave the analysis to Moon of Alabama

Written about Omidyar funding the Maiden Revolt in pursuit of regime change.

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 04:55:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is another view on the Biden story in the The Atlantic written by Anne Applebaum.

Now what ?
by pi (etrib@opsec.eu) on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 10:29:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I do have an opinion of Anne Sikorski ... a missed opportunity to become Poland's FLOPL 🤣

Diaries about Anne Applebaum

I pass on any article of hers ... she has written for UK/AU's Legatum Institute in London.

Self-search of her fault lines:
"Anne Applebaum: how my old friends paved the way for Trump and Brexit"

by Oui on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 11:05:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FLOPL - first lady of Poland? She appears to have resigned from Legatum when it went Brexity

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 12:10:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Her split from Legatum in link under "old friends" ... 😊

Radoslaw Sikorski and Anne Applebaum are booted out of Poland (2010)

FLOPL: Ask me about, say, the energy policies of the European Union or the significance of the Ukrainian election and I can talk all day.  But ask me "why I fell in love with my husband" and I am utterly tongue-tied.  What is the correct answer? Isn't the truth--"I don't remember, really, it's all rather a blur".

Sikorski has a history as journalist and probably tasked with intelligence operations for the CIA in Afghanistan and British in Angola. Got British citizenship as reward ...

by Oui on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 02:01:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 02:03:33 AM EST
Federal appeals court rules mailed ballots must be received by Election Day in Minnesota, cutting weeklong window | CNN News |

The case was heard by Judge Bobby Shepherd, an appointee of President George W. Bush; Judge Jane Kelly, who was appointed by President Barack Obama; and Judge L. Steven Grasz, appointed by President Donald Trump. Kelly dissented from the majority.

As of last Friday, nearly 2 million Minnesota voters had requested absentee ballots, and more than 500,000 of those ballots remained outstanding.

by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 02:13:30 AM EST
by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 02:16:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
'We've got to stop the bleeding': Democrats sound alarm in Miami
"We did not get the kind of funding for different vendors who would do that type of work until late in the campaign," said Rep. Frederica Wilson, a party institution who represents Miami's heavily Black congressional district.
[...]
"Democrats have a big turnout issue in the Hispanic community in Miami-Dade," said Florida-based Democratic data analyst Matt Isbell. "Hispanic Democrat turnout is only 48% while the Republican Hispanics are at 57%. This large of a gap doesn't exist in Broward or Orange. It is a Miami problem."
archived Fri Mar 22nd, 2019
by Cat on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 04:03:31 AM EST
Didn't read the thread before putting mine up.  Apologies.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 04:02:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The push to get Haitians to 'Hexit' from Democrats
"There's little data to show exactly how many Haitian Americans live and vote in Florida because some of Haitian descent may now identify as African American, experts say." < wipes tears >
by Cat on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 03:42:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As expected, we got to 82m votes in last night.  We should get into the high-80s by the end of the day.

Final NYT/Siena College poll of NC:

Biden 48
Trump 45

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 11:37:27 AM EST
Hawaii and Texas have now surpassed their total 2016 turnout.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 12:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not good news from Florida.  It seems once again it's just too much trouble for (supposed) Democrats to get their lazy asses off the couch, go out of the air conditioning, and vot.

'We've got to stop the bleeding': Democrats sound alarm in Miami

Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida's biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden's chances in the nation's biggest swing state.

No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.

Emphasis added.

Fortunately Biden doesn't need Florida.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 04:00:11 PM EST
I could be wrong, but I think people are making too much of this.

That said, if it lights a fire, I'm all for it:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1322009334306492417

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 04:27:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 05:26:39 PM EST
Syntax error above ...

Joe Biden in Broward: 'Florida goes blue, it's over'

After first flying into Fort Lauderdale, Biden spoke for about a half-hour to supporters at Broward College's north campus in Coconut Creek, touching on his major campaign themes -- COVID-19, bolstering the middle class, and gun violence.

Biden wore aviator sunglasses as he addressed about 200 cars at the invitation-only event.

He was introduced by Manuel and Patricia Oliver, the parents of Manuel Oliver, one of the students killed in the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland.

Biden thanked them and also Karl-Anthony Towns of the Minnesota Timberwolves and ex-NBA player Matt Barnes for speaking at the event.

by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 05:37:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Populism and White Supremacy Their Future: Trump heir apparent ... a birther complot.

Trump Jr says Covid deaths are down to 'almost nothing' on the day 1,000 people die | The Independent |

Donald Trump Jr has claimed that the US death rate for Covid-19 is down to "almost nothing", speaking on a day in which almost 1,000 people died.

The president's son, 42, appeared on Fox News and told host Laura Ingraham that people worried about Covid were "morons".  He said: "These people are truly morons," referencing Sanjay Gupta, CNN's health correspondent, who told people they should not be attending Mr Trump's mass rallies.

"I went through the CDC data, because I kept hearing about new infections, but I was like, `Why aren't they talking about this?' " he said. The president's son cited CDC data for Covid deaths without realising that it was provisional and constantly being updated.

Noting that at the same time White House chief of staff Mark Meadows has now admitted that the administration has no plans to "control" the spread of the virus.

Beijing Believes Trump Is Accelerating American Decline | FT |

by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 07:11:27 PM EST
by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 07:12:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is starkly apparent both the American global domination and the Era of European Expansion are ending.  Over the next 50 years or so we'll see an historic switch as a non-European country becomes the dominate global power.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 09:09:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

On virus, Trump and health advisers go their separate ways | The Columbian |

by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 09:29:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In a First, ICE Agents Are Poised to Respond to Potential Election Day Unrest | NBC News |

Department of Homeland Security agents, including those from Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection, have been told to be ready to protect federal property in Washington if there is unrest on or after Election Day, two DHS officials told NBC News.

The agency is regularly tasked with providing additional security around the nation's capital on inauguration days, but has never stepped in to quell unrest on Election Day.

Walmart reverses decision to remove guns and ammo from store shelves

Americans have bought record 17m guns in year of unrest, analysis finds | The Guardian |

by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 08:08:42 PM EST
Where Latinos have the most eligible voters in the 2020 election | Pew Research |

This year, Latinos are expected for the first time to be the nation's largest racial or ethnic minority in a U.S. presidential election, with a record 32 million projected to be eligible to vote. They will account for 13.3% of all eligible voters. However, the number of Latino eligible voters is still far below the 60 million Latinos who live in the country.

Will Florida's Latino voters pick the next president? | CS Monitor |

In Democrats' bid to flip Texas, maximizing the Latino vote is key | Texas Tribune |

What Liberals Don't Understand About Pro-Trump Latinos | The Atlantic |

by Oui on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 09:49:27 PM EST
Here's hoping GOTV Hispanic voter registration before 3 Nov 2020 exceeded growth rate...
2018 GE 228M citizen question: the marginalia of "droves"
67% of citizens, 72% of all 2018 voters
13% of citizens, 12% of all 2018 voters
8% of citizens, 7% of all 2018 voters(e)
12% of citizens, 9% of all 2018 voters
census.gov
because FL is not a same-day registration state.
Tue Oct 27th, 2020
by Cat on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 10:16:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
in California?
Record 22 Million Registered to Vote in California
The mammoth figure is larger than the population of any other state except Texas. And at nearly 88%, California is enjoying its highest percentage of eligible voters registered for a general election in 80 years.
[...]
According to the U.S. Election Project, a database compiled by an elections expert at the University of Florida, 9.1 million Californians had returned their ballots as of Thursday, double the number in 2016.
[...]
Of the 22 million potential voters, 46% are registered Democrats, 24% are Republican and 24% have registered as no party preference.
0 increase of CA electors.

Electoral college is not well understood.

by Cat on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 12:43:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But less room for SCOTUS shenanigans if Biden has a high seven or even eight digit lead in the popular vote.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 08:35:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably helps a little bit on the PR front.

Really the best bet against Trump trying to pull any shit is to win the states that will count early: Florida, North Carolina and Arizona should mostly be done on Election Night, as I understand it.  Texas may be close enough to done that it can be called too, although obviously I'm less optimistic about Biden's chances there.

We should have a decent idea of how Florida's going to shake out by 8.30 or so on the East Coast, and it'll probably be called officially by 10.30 or so.  Mail votes and early in-person votes are processed and counted ahead of time in Florida, so an enormous chunk of the vote will come in just after the polls close.  Thereafter the count should be fairly quick.

Florida plus any non-Iowa swing state wins it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 11:23:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
constitutional question(s) do you suppose a resident of CALIFORNIA might petition SCOTUS to review IN THE EVENT an appellate court errs in a finding of CALIFORNIA "election code"?
by Cat on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 02:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final NBC/Marist poll in North Carolina:

Biden 52
Trump 46

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 30th, 2020 at 11:34:08 PM EST
More than 230 election-related federal lawsuits have been filed already. A look at each state.

The outcomes have been mixed. Voting rights advocates won numerous COVID-19-related decisions that expanded access to absentee ballots, extended deadlines to count those ballots and allowed blind and disabled voters to cast their ballots electronically or by phone. Trump's lawyers and his supporters have also scored key victories, locking in Election Day deadlines for absentee voting, limiting the number of ballot drop boxes and blocking other measures to ease voting.
[...]
At the same time, arguments from Trump's lawyers have been shot down in several states, and the president was dealt two setbacks by the Supreme Court just before Election Day in cases that expanded absentee voting - a procedure he has criticized without evidence as the source of ballot fraud.
< wipes tears >
Tue Oct 20th, 2020
2021 IS GOING TO BE GREAT. WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE STIMULATED!
by Cat on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 12:14:05 AM EST
Pandemic and Leading Big Pharma ... after the Opioid Scandal OxyContin

Corona will stay as a virus requiring an annual vaccination campaign similar to the influenza shot. Never mind that SARS CoV-2 has devastating long-term impact on the health of individuals.

Working for the NHS in seven hospitals in the City of London ...

"Don't be so convulsive and get the corona vaccine on the market now"

Lower safety requirements and bring the corona vaccine to market early now that the world is on fire. The Dutch doctor and professor Marcel Levi, boss of seven hospitals in London, makes this striking appeal in an interview with this site. "Yes, you take a small risk with that. But you do that because the alternative is much worse."

Marcel will be appointed by Mark in The Netherlands as head in the scientific group to advice PM Rutte to lead the onslaught ... not on the deadly SARS Covid-2, but the people. Let her rip and the pharmaceuticals do the rest.

Marcel Levi to step down as chief executive

PM Rutte advocating "herd immunity" as leader in March of this year, parroting his Conservative friends Boris and Donald.

 From Outbreak to a Global Pandemic

Developers and researchers are looking to places like Brazil, where the new coronavirus is still spreading fast, to test potential vaccines.
[Brazil's government announced a deal with Oxford University and pharmaceutical company AstraZenecato]

'They needed people': Brazil volunteers step up to test COVID-19 vaccine | Reuters - July 14, 2020 |

Yes, Mark the "no policy, no vision, no scruples" politician will lead his party in the 2021 election and become the longest sitting PM ever beating out Ruud Lubbers.

It's the economy, stupid!"

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 07:51:10 AM EST
by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 08:50:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The China virus - CNN report on Jan. 22, 2020

CNN's David Culver is in the 'epicenter' of the virus outbreak in Wuhan

At least 9 people have now died following the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Hundreds of people have been infected across the country and cases have now been reported in Japan, Thailand, South Korea and now in the US.

Overall in China travel and domestic tourism have returned to normal and the mandate to wear face masks has been lifted.

Second national outbreak unlikely in China: top experts

In China, to be specific, a second national outbreak is unlikely due to complete anti-epidemic measures and nationwide strict implementation. But attention should be given to preventing sporadic outbreaks in some individual places. "Track and trace."

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 09:28:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As president Trump intensifies his travel to States he won four years ago - playing defense - the BIG pushback is from the expansion of the China virus carried by his diehard supporters wearing his MAGA cap, but no mask. 😡

Projections of 2,000 Daily Covid Deaths 'Not Unrealistic': Johns Hopkins

US coronavirus cases break global daily record, and experts warn it will only get worse

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 09:56:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Covid 'running riot' in England as lockdown expected next week

Boris Johnson is expected to impose stringent new national lockdown restrictions after scientists on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) told him Covid-19 was spreading significantly faster than their worst-case scenarios and could kill 85,000 people this winter.

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 10:04:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
President Trump likes to call the Covid-19 virus the China Virus, but he might as well call it a socialist virus as well. Because what Covid-19 is doing is undermining the "I'm alright Jack" ethic of much conservative individualism and libertarian ideology. The Trumpian predilection for MAGA baseball hats is matched only by their distain for facemasks and any concern for the welfare of others.

Trump has mocked Biden's habit of wearing a facemask in public when not speaking, and persisted in holding mass meetings - dubbed "supespreader events" by his detractors. As a time when deaths in the USA are averaging 1,000 a day, and infections have hit a new peak of 100,000 a day, his son Donald jnr. has described deaths from the disease as down to almost nothing.

Trumps has supported protests against lockdown restrictions and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has said the United States and the Trump administration are not going to control the pandemic and instead rely on the pharmaceutical industry to come up with a vaccine. This is in keeping with their opposition to big government and support for private industry.

The idea that individuals should accept restrictions on their personal freedom for the safety of others is alien to their individualistic ideology. The idea that the community needs to be protected from contagion runs counter to their "every man for himself" beliefs. And yet Trump was the first to avail of huge medical resources when he got ill - resources that are denied to most of his fellow citizens.

US voters have a choice on Tuesday to endorse this individualistic ideology or accept that the government, as representative of the wider community as legitimate concerns, and indeed a duty to take all measures possible to stop the spread of the disease and keep as many people as possible free of its debilitating effects. The Reaganite doctrine that the government is not there to help you, but is rather part of the problem has had its day.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 11:31:55 AM EST
typo ... superspreader

"pharmaceutical industry to come up with a vaccine"

... and therapeutics as Remdesivir ... see list of medicine in treatment if Trump such as Regeneron  

https:/www.genengnews.com/insights/trumps-treatments-regenerons-antibodies-and-gileads-remdesivir-e xplained

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 12:01:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 12:17:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regeneron to stop enrolling very sick COVID-19 patients in antibody trial
The recommendation was based on a potential safety signal and an unfavorable risk-benefit profile at this time, the company said. Rival Eli Lilly & Co stopped enrolling such patients based on a similar suggestion earlier this week.
[...]
Regeneron shares were down nearly 3% at $540.87 [?!!].
Mission accomplished. Wed Oct 7th, 2020
by Cat on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 12:20:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The idea that individuals should accept restrictions on their personal freedom for the safety of others is alien to their individualistic ideology.

Whic is either a very new ideology, or didn't bother them when it came to a draft to replace France as the colonial power in Vietnam.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 01:24:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For those of you who don't know Nevada, the basic rule is: "Nevada polling is usually garbage and you should just follow Jon Ralston's early voting blog."

Ralston's a longtime reporter and analyst in Vegas and basically just counts up the ballots received over the two-week early voting period and projects off those.

Trump's been trying to make a play there, which never made much sense to me given the polling in other states in the Southwest.  (If Trump's losing Arizona...well, Nevada is basically just a more Democratic Arizona.)

And, indeed, it doesn't seem to make sense, because the Dems seem to be on track to win pretty handily.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 11:41:19 AM EST
Note that projecting like that historically really only works in Nevada among the swing states, where turnout habits, regional margins and registrations fit very neatly.  As opposed to (say) Florida, which is always close obviously, but where these things are much less predictable.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 11:45:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They were talking about winning New Mexico and that wasn't going to happen.

My guess: somebodies are grifting the grifter and making a butt load of money off billing top dollar to the campaign and buying in low cost media markets

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 05:54:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final Fox national poll:

Biden 52
Trump 44

Think the last we're waiting on for the nationals are NBC/WSJ, CBS/YouGov and ABC/WaPo.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 12:01:19 PM EST
Looks like Hidalgo County (basically the McAllen area) has blown past its total 2016 turnout after Harris, Beto and Castro campaigned there yesterday.

El Paso was knocking on the door of it as well.

These are heavily-Latino border counties in Texas and usually have pretty low turnout.

They're not going to match the truly absurd numbers we're seeing in the suburban counties in Texas (Williamson, Collin, Denton, etc), but it's perhaps noteworthy.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 12:07:29 PM EST
Republican Latino delegates defend Trump's pandemic response, are confident about re-election | NBC News - Aug. 26, 2020 |

Texas' Rio Grande Valley, where Hidalgo County is located, is deeply blue, but as Peña-Garza likes to point out, underdogs like her who want President Donald Trump to be re-elected are spread throughout the region.

Coronavirus struck Texas' Rio Grande Valley. Will Latinos strike back with their votes?

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 12:37:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I see two possible scenarios for election night:

  1. Biden/Harris take Florida or Texas (or both). These states report results on the day, and Trump can not win without them. That will kill the race there. Even if Trump does not concede immediately the party is likely to desert him.

  2. Trump/Pence take Florida and Texas. As most rust belt states won't be able to report results on election night, no clear winner emerges. Most likely Trump declares himself victor and later contests elections in key states with Republican legislatures. A botched election and an uncertain future, with various personality claiming the Presidency.  

A question mark remains on how the election day will go. Trump and Murdock have summoned their militias to "patrol" electoral venues. But with current early voting numbers, it might well be that only Republican voters are left on the 3rd. Unrest in key states is likely to conduce to scenario 2.  

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 04:45:47 PM EST
Republicans are already in a panic the post-Trump era won't start until Donald dies.  Trump can make a lot of easy money off of #MAGA and QAnon idiots and he's never been one to refuse those opportunities.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 05:57:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Like Jarod Kushner told Bob Woodward: the Republican party has been hit by an hostile take-over. If he manages to avoid jail, Jarod is himself the best candidate to take on the torch from Donald senior. Personalities like John Kaisich or Marco Rubio could be away from the GOP frontlines for decades.

That is assuming the US political systems survives as is. Trump might just be the necessary shock to prompt the US from the decrepitude of today into a modern democracy.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 07:09:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump and his circle are desperate: he must win this election by any means necessary, and he won't be encumbered by legality - never been, never will. We can expect truly anything, especially illegal. Same for his cabinet and advisers. The only question is how far the Senate GOP and the different Republican held swing states (+ SCOTUS) are willing to go to disregard the votes.

Scarily enough, there is no clear answer to this question at this point.

Luis: Trump might just be the necessary shock to prompt the US from the decrepitude of today into a modern democracy.

... or into a white minority ruled post-democracy failed state with a more or less open civil war. I agree this sounds extreme, but nearly enough for comfort.

by Bernard on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 01:22:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They had the full backing of Texas police apparently.

Biden Team Cancels Texas Event After Highway `Ambush' by MAGA Cavalry

"These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road," he alleged. "They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer's car."



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 05:59:54 PM EST
Delay in US Postal Service will be decisive for result in some swing states ...

Critical mail delays hit swing states ahead of US election

The Guardian sent about 150 first class letters between locations in Detroit, Ann Arbor and Hamtramck, three Democratic strongholds in the critical battleground state. The mail was sent to mimic the route that a ballot would take from a mailbox to a city clerk's office in the same municipality. About 83% of the mail arrived on time. But the service was much worse in Detroit where about 36% of letters arrived at least three days late, and one Detroit letter remains unaccounted for.

Detroit delays could spell trouble for Democratic candidates and the Biden campaign. About 170,000 Detroiters, who are overwhelmingly Democratic, have requested absentee ballots ahead of the election. Trump previously won the state by just over 10,000 votes, and a Michigan judge recently ruled that mail-in ballots arriving after election day will not count. The Detroit city clerk exacerbated the situation by failing to send out 70,000 absentee ballots until the election's final weeks.

Battleground postal delays persist with mail voting underway | AP News - Oct. 24, 2020 |

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 08:08:01 PM EST
Event description ...

Inauguration on January 20 .. tickets on sale!

Join us in witnessing the inauguration ceremonies of President Joseph Biden Jr. and Vice President Kamala D. Harris of the United States.

Washington DC - How will the Trump family manage when they are served subpoena's and can't leave the country under Court Order ... further chaos guaranteed.

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 08:30:30 PM EST
Final CNN polls of Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin:

Arizona:

Biden 50
Trump 46

NC:

Biden 51
Trump 45

Michigan:

Biden 53
Trump 41

Wisconsin:

Biden 52
Trump 44

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 09:30:53 PM EST
Trump Is Losing Ground With Some -- But Not All -- White Christians

Trump may have reason to worry about his level of support among white Catholics. Politicians and the media typically pay less attention to these voters during election season, but white Catholics are especially important to watch this year because they're a sizable group -- and they're concentrated in Rust Belt swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 10:26:27 PM EST
by Oui on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 11:33:57 PM EST
Indeed, this is not new. From two months ago:


Here's Why Trump Has Lost So Much Support in the Active Duty Military - Admiral Stavridis (Ret.)

President Trump has essentially reversed his favorable/unfavorable numbers over his four years in office, declining by almost 10% points in favorability, and increasing unfavorable views by 13%. All this before The Atlantic's reports of Trump calling military dead in a cemetery in Europe "suckers and losers." Conceivably his numbers are even worse now.

All of this tracks with my own personal observations and conversations with many active duty military members over the last few years. While the officer cadre tends to be even more unfavorable toward the President than some of the junior enlisted force, what is remarkable is the level of the reversal from 2016. The President is now finding himself underwater essentially across all ranks of the force.

by Bernard on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 01:33:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final NYT/Siena College polls:

AZ:

Biden 49
Trump 43

FL:

Biden 47
Trump 44

PA:

Biden 49
Trump 43

WI:

Biden 52
Trump 41

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 12:23:34 PM EST
Final Selzer poll in Iowa:

Trump 48
Biden 41

I think Trump wins Iowa, but I'm pretty skeptical of this one's margin.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 12:27:37 PM EST
"Black or African American" voters catch a break.

In IA, DNC will blame "Hispanic, any race" voters attached to Big Ag and meat packing, for LOW TURNOUT.

by Cat on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 02:00:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump K.O. by KungFu Virus

Trump's coronavirus tweet hidden and branded 'potentially harmful information' | Sky News - Oct. 2020 |

From my diary mid-March ..

Trump doesn't do the science

by Oui on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 02:17:44 PM EST
Final NBC/WSJ national poll:

Biden 52
Trump 42

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 03:55:36 PM EST

by Oui on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 04:55:25 PM EST
Dr. Atlas ... using the proper media outlet for his misleading comments on ... Russia Today 🤣 YES!!

White House unleashes on Fauci after criticism of Atlas and Trump's pandemic response | CNN News |

Russia stating a fact ahead of the vote? GOTV and vote Blue!

Trump failed to fight and expose the establishment's Covid narrative - and now it may cost him re-election | RT |

by Oui on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 06:46:48 PM EST
The Biden campaign receives a warm welcome coming to Texas ... formerly a Red State ... major coup if Texas turns Blue in 2020 ... take nothing for granted ...

Did Donald tweet the wrong video? I see a Blue Biden caravan ... GREAT! 🤣

Incitement from Eric Trump on Facebook ...
"It'd be great if you guys would all get together, head down to McAllen and give Kamala Harris a nice Trump Train welcome."

Caravan of armed Trump supporters had been harassing the Biden campaign bus on highway I-35 near McAllen.

by Oui on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 06:59:31 PM EST
by Oui on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 07:00:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 07:48:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Next step tomorrow morning a federal court hearing in Tx ...
by Oui on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 08:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen is set to convene the hearing at 10:30 a.m. local time Monday in Houston.

Quoting a Yankee great Yogi Berra: "It ain't over till it's over".

by Oui on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 08:50:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Plaintiffs had no standing ... Texas Election Law stipulates polling place to be in a building defined as structure. Judge can't define an outdoor tent as a building "structure". Will continue on appeal ...

127,000 drive-thru votes in Harris County will count, federal judge rules

by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 08:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No SCOTUS associates were harmed in the filming of this drama. WIN!!!
by Cat on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 09:08:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So mail boxes in general don't count?  Det er helt Texas.
by rifek on Fri Nov 13th, 2020 at 10:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 08:55:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 09:13:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 09:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
93 Million And Counting: Americans Are Shattering Early Voting Records

The important bit

People ages 18 to 29 are turning out to vote early in a big way.

Young people support Democrats 70/30.  They are also highly likely to not have voted in 2016 or 2018 and so will not pass the Likely Voter test.  Meaning: polling is more likely to be under-reporting Biden support than over-reporting.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 02:44:29 AM EST
Let it be the GREAT October Surprise of 2020 ...

The "shy" Trump voter of 2016 replaced by the "young" Biden voter today!

The new generation taking their future into their own hands ... would be extremely nice, a worthy change. Not accepting irresponsible leadership in this age of social turmoil.

by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 06:14:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem for Biden is that of those young people 2/3 identify as socialists, a la Sander and Ocasio-Cortez, not his kind of "Reagan republican" -democrats.

The thing I'm seeing is a lot of leftist either not voting, writing in Sanders (where possible) or voting Green (where possible). Some are even voting for Trump in order to bring down the DNC and capture the party. They are not going to vote for Biden just because he's (barely) not Trump.

Using words of hyperbole, the young seem to feel that if the choice is between beer house type of fascism (Trump) and corporate type of fascism (Biden) the only way to win is not to play the game.

by pelgus on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 07:41:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the point of voting for Sanders? If he gets any EVs, he'll give them to Biden....
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 07:55:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Silly people doing silly things has always been a part of politics.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:02:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's why I think to US "left" is sometimes no better than the right. They are more concerned with personal ideological purity than doing something practical to help those really suffering under the current regime..

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 04:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US Left disappeared up its own arse decades ago.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 06:10:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can you specify what real world event you are refering to? As far as I can tell what's there of an organized left has been a reliable voting block no matter what war criminal or race realist the party decided to slap a D on.
by generic on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 07:25:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Adding: And the Ds are absolutely acting as if they know this. They're not even pretending to offer anything the left wants.
by generic on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 07:36:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the reality of a bipolar two party system. Your choice is never better than the least worst option. But I wouldn't expect the Dems to offer a very leftist agenda when they are competing against the right, not the left. Why give oxygen/credibility to what Trump is branding, even now, as a far left antifa agenda?

It's what they actually do, when in office, that matters, and on that basis, in most policy areas, I think Obama was better than Trump - and especially better than what I expect Trump would do if he wins a second term. My main concern would be that the Dems will re-empower the neo-cons in their ranks, although probably none are as bad as John Bolton. I have a problem with "holier than thou" moralists of all stripes, and on that scale some US leftists are up there with the evangelical Christians.

It's why, I think, they have so little influence anywhere. The US needs structural reform - taking the money and corporations out of politics, eliminating gerrymandering, rebalancing the Supreme Court, eliminating civilian guns and the the electoral college, giving senate seats to DC and Puerto Rico etc. But it is almost impossible to change much of that without constitutional amendments which will be impossible to enact against the opposition of vested interests. So barring a second revolution, my expectations are v. low, and I will settle for Biden over Trump.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 08:07:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the obvious purely electoral strategy in a two party system to get anything at all out of it is to draw redlines and keep to them. Of course the US left has neither the organization nor the will to organize something like that. And it is a strategy that ultimately assumes some measure of good faith and will to power. Which we really can not. Just as the Sensible Moderates™ on Brexit Island were perfectly happy to burn it all down and salt the remains. So I don't think it can work, but I can't blame anyone for trying.
After all, the likely result of a a Biden administration would look like: Mishandling of the pandemic, austerity and rehabilitation of the GOP brand and a consequent continuation of the far right take over of all state institutions.
by generic on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 10:39:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Lenin: Blocs With the Cadets

The Mensheviks' main argument is the Black-Hundred danger. The first and fundamental flaw in this argument is that the Black-Hundred danger cannot be combated by Cadet tactics and a Cadet policy. The essence of this policy lies in reconciliation with tsarism, that is, with the Black-Hundred danger. The first Duma sufficiently demonstrated that the Cadets do not combat the Black-Hundred danger, but make incredibly despicable speeches about the innocence and blamelessness of the monarch, the known leader of the Black Hundreds. Therefore, by helping to elect Cadets to the Duma, the Mensheviks are not only failing to combat the Black-Hundred danger, but are hoodwinking the people, are obscuring the real significance of the Black-Hundred danger. Combating the Black-Hundred danger by helping to elect the Cadets to the Duma is like combating pogroms by means of the speech delivered by the lackey Rodichev: "It is presumption to hold the monarch responsible for the pogrom."

Of course if there is a Lenin around he currently spends all his time in flame wars( much as the historical one did).

by generic on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 05:39:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 07:03:29 AM EST
Jeez ... even a day before the election I heard a lady Trump supporter in Wisconsin argue this falsehood why she won't vote for Joe Biden ...

Fact check: If the vice president becomes president, House speaker doesn't become new VP

Stupidity has no bounds in today's America ... basic Civics class 60 years ago. I heard this and thought what in hell is she talking about: "I don't want two women leading this nation. I can't stand Nancy Pelosi."

by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 07:26:52 AM EST

reference
Seek and ye shall finde

P.S. 2/3 one man is another common error.

by Cat on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 01:10:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pew Research revealed Latino population eligible to vote nears 33 million or 17% of the electorate, however a much smaller number will actually vote. GOTV

Black and Latino turnout lags white turnout in some key states. Democrats shouldn't panic (yet).

Latino vote is key in a number of swing states and their early voting is lagging ...

Trump's attacks on Obamacare could cost him in Texas and Florida | The Guardian |

by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 08:06:44 AM EST
meaning, voting age + registered?
The article does not say, and phone "polling" by NAME .

As noted with reference to census record: Hispanic VAP represented 12% of all eligible voters. One must assume that 2019-2020 GOTV matched or exceeded 9% of all 2018 returns by tomorrow. A 5% increase in VAP, concomitant registration, and returns among hispanic alone is quite a stretch for a number of prosaic reasons, polls, and poorly planned partisan "race or ethnicity" patronage.
by Cat on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 02:44:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Historically Latinos haven't voted.  One big reason is the historic racism and violence by whites in Texas and Arizona when they tried.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:05:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
'You are no longer my mother': How the election is dividing American families who didn't much care for each other to begin with and evidently didn't have time, money, nor inclination to "heal" their personal differences.

FWIW, if I needn't be estranged by that self-servin sumbitch Obama, you can, too! All eyes on the Big Picture kept us talking, yo.

by Cat on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:50:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Election polls are 95 percent confident but only 60 percent accurate, UC Berkeley Haas study finds

How confident should you be in election polls? Not nearly as confident as the pollsters claim, according to a new UC Berkeley Haas study.

Most election polls report a 95 percent confidence level. Yet an analysis of 1,400 polls from 11 election cycles found that the outcome lands within the poll's result just 60 percent of the time. And that's for polls just one week before an election -- accuracy drops even more further out.

"If you're confident, based on polling, about how the 2020 election will come out, think again," said UC Berkeley Haas professor Don Moore, who conducted the analysis with former student Aditya Kotak, B.A. '20. "There are a lot of reasons why the actual outcome could be different from the poll, and the way pollsters compute confidence intervals does not take those issues into account."

If one wants a handy rule:

"Perhaps the way we interpret polls as a whole needs to be adjusted, to account for the uncertainty that comes with them," Kotak said. In fact, to be 95 percent confident, polls would need to double the margins of error they report even a week from election day, the analysis concluded.
by fjallstrom on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 09:39:33 AM EST
by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 09:45:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that the meaning the author meant to convey is that the margins of error would have to be tighter, i.e. one half of existing MOEs.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:01:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How so?

If polls are less certain then their real margin of error is larger. For example, if TheHill/Harris has Biden at 49 plusminus 2 percent with 95% certainty, then in reality it is closer to 49 plusminus 4 percent with 95% certainty. Or did you mean the other way around, that to get to 49 plusminus 2 percent with 95% certainty they have to increase paricipants until they are at plusminus 1 percent?

by fjallstrom on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 08:35:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For polls to be 95% certain the margins of error would have to be tighter than they are if there is only an 80% certainty. The way it is stated in the article is ambiguous, IMO.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 03:59:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania:

Biden 51
Trump 44

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 11:51:02 AM EST
Crossing all fingers ... and ten toes 🦶🏽🦶🏽
by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 12:14:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which headline and what substance of methodology used in Election 2020.

Always surprises and corrections needed ... given definition of "likely voters" ... hopefully a surge of young voters for Biden to offset any numbers of "shy" Trump voters. After Trump is fired, I expect these Red capped nationalist Americans return in hiding.

New Monmouth poll shows Biden with 5-point lead over Trump in Pa.

"In a low turnout scenario, Biden's lead shrinks to 5 points, 50 to 45. The September poll found Biden leading by 8 points in the low turnout scenario among likely voters. The previous poll was conducted shortly after the first presidential debate."

by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 12:34:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But this election is hardly shaping up to be a 'low turnout election'. Quite the opposite to date. Election day seems likely to be a fine fall day throughout the USA.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 02:59:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
% ballots returned ("turnout") depends on total number of registered voters, doesn't it? What is that number?
by Cat on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Short Answer:  we don't know.

21 states have established Same Day registration, meaning a person can register and vote on election day.

Given the total weirdness of this election I wouldn't want to hazard a guess at the final number.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But that makes it less predictable in my analysis ... it's not a minor deviation, but quite substantial. 😄. In many elections of populist candidates, the large turnout is often due to fanatic supporters who never ever bothered to vote in an election because of all sorts of conspiracies. Geert Wilders got elected by Dutch football (soccer) hooligans who also rioted in the capital The Hague and are massively opposed to wearing masks and certainly not abiding by health regulations.

I never have seen a poll prediction by turnout of plus 15% ⭕️🌪

by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:10:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Cook Political Report is now projecting the Democrats will pick up 10 - 15 House seats. That is up from the 5 - 10 they had been predicting.

Behind paywall so no link.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:10:06 PM EST
Great. How's the senate blue wave coming along?
by Cat on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At the moment Alabama is D - R.  Maine, Arizona,  Colorado, and one seat in Georgia look fairly safe R -> D.  Iowa, Montana, the other Georgia seat, NC, Texas (!), and SC (!!) are all on the edge.  

Lose one, gain four, and six Who Knows?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:29:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You left out N.C. which is a likely win for Cunningham. Add that to AZ Co and Maine and Dems get control of the Senate in any case and without Doug Jones. But one GA seat is likely as well and I expect at least one more.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 05:12:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NC is there


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 06:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't put it in the 'Fairly Safe' category because I don't think it is.  Lots of ignorant white hick Evangelical bigots hiding out in the western part of the state.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 06:13:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Fight to Turn Georgia Blue | The New Yorker |

In the past four years, a million new voters have been added to the state's rolls, and many of them are young and nonwhite. "There are more latent Democrats here now," Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, told me. "You've got white transplants who aren't conservative. You've got the African-American base. New Asian-American and Hispanic voters coming to the state. They all break Democratic."

by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 06:15:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Drew has been on about this since the early Summer and I didn't believe it.  

There's still the gap between registering to vote and actually voting.  Dem voters have a long tradition of sitting on their asses and not voting.  I concede that doesn't appear to be the case this time.  We'll know fairly quickly tomorrow.

 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 06:21:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gwinnett and Cobb are basically Fairfax, just a couple cycles behind. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 06:41:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
YouGov released two polls today what when averaged have Biden up 9 in Georgia.

With that kind of number EITHER YouGov is going to be a laughingstock on Wednesday OR this is going to be a Blue Tsunami

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 09:00:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FiveThirtyEight has poll ratings, and YouGov do not score high.

Plausible polling shows a tie leaning Biden very narrowly and within MoE.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 11:39:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That story is a string of ambiguous anecdotal confessions--none representing "new" voters.
ACJ says +1M registered, but Kemp's man in SoS don't publish, as is the custom, BECAUSE

2018 turnout reportedly was 61%. 159 counties with well-oiled machinery. I'll take the under in 2020.
by Cat on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 07:05:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do they have an updated projection for state legislatures?
by IdiotSavant on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 03:13:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is this but I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 04:33:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're up to 95 million votes now in per Michael McDonald's estimate.

John Couvillon, a Democratic pollster who's usually ahead of McDonald a bit, has it at 96.5m as of four hours ago.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:54:43 PM EST
So probably about 60m votes left, the bulk of which look like they'll be from the Midwest and Northeast.

I don't know why they're lagging so far behind others.

Over 80% of the vote is now probably in for FL, NC, GA, TX and NV.  We'll probably clear 80% in for AZ today.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:58:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Couvillon saying Nevada has not blown by its total 2016 turnout.

Arizona also now at 96% of 2016.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 05:32:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Shaping up to be an ass kicking

Swing State Poll Finds No Late Shift to Trump

Support for President Trump and Joe Biden in a group of battleground states has remained unchanged in recent days, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, finding little evidence of the kind of last-minute shift toward Mr. Trump that helped him win four years ago.

The poll, conducted on Sunday in 12 states in which the election is most competitive, finds Mr. Biden leading, 51% to 46%, essentially unchanged from a survey late last week.

First Read has important context: Trump won these same states by a combined 2 points in 2016, 49% to 47%.

Quoted the whole thing but there's links to the
 articles at the site.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 04:06:20 PM EST
True, difference with 4 years ago in last 48 hours there was a noticable shift. Truly hope for a solid majority ...
by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 04:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 05:56:06 PM EST
I can't see any evidence or reason for Trump flipping a 2016 Clinton state.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 06:14:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Only one that I'd kind of thought was conceivable was Minnesota, since it was so close last time.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 06:44:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Things must be awful for Trump and the GOP.  This is when Rasmussen releases their polling from this Universe in an attempt to gain some credibility and they haven't done it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 09:04:04 PM EST


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