Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Electoral Tide swings towards Democrats.

by Frank Schnittger Tue Oct 6th, 2020 at 09:28:04 PM EST

It's been a month since ARGeezer's diary on the US elections, so what has changed? Firstly, some significant events have taken place:

  1. The untimely death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg
  2. Threats by Trump to refuse a peaceful transition of power
  3. The nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to replace Ginsburg
  4. NYT release of information on Trump's tax returns
  5. The first presidential debate
  6. Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis
  7. Trumps hospitalization and release
  8. A cluster of other cases at the White House and among Republican senators who attended the White house ceremony to nominate Barrett to the Supreme Court.


Except for the debate, its been all about Trump, and even his nomination of Amy Coney Barrett happened before Ruth Bader Ginsburg's funeral, to general disapproval, as Republicans had refused to even debate Obama's last nominee for the Supreme Court on the basis that it occurred in an election year.

Biden is generally agreed to have "won" the debate, even if only because he was perceived as the more civil participant. Nate Silver reckons Biden got a 1.5% bounce from the debate if you compare polls taken before and after the debate by the same pollster.

However the post debate polling was quickly overshadowed by the announcement of Trump's positive Covid 19 test. Again the polling seems to indicate that even some Republicans blame Trump's illness on his own failure to take adequate precautions, and his taunting of Biden for always wearing a mask in public during the debate was spectacularly ill-timed.

The spread of the disease amongst a cluster of White House Staff and Republican senators who failed to wear a mask at public While House engagements has further emphasized their culpability, and diminished any public sympathy that might have gone their way.

Trump himself also appeared mask-less on a sortie outside the hospital to wave to his supporters and on his return to the White house, putting further staff at risk. The news conference by a large number of doctors on Trumps condition just emphasized the different levels of care available to the President and the vast majority of US voters.

Trump's niece, Mary Trump, has said that Trump sees illness as a sign of unforgivable weakness. Perhaps this explains the displays of machismo and bravado on return to the White House where he declared that "Americans shouldn't be afraid of the Virus".

Opinion is divided on whether his illness will have any lasting effect on his polling, and even post debate bounces often fade. However so far Biden's lead in the average of polls has moved from c. 7% to 8.7% (538.com) and 9% (Real Clear Politics). The most recent polls, released today, actually give Biden a 10.6% edge - landslide territory.

As against that, Biden is only 4.4% ahead in the battleground states, virtually identical to Hilary Clinton's lead at this stage of the race, but then she had the Comey revelations to deal with in the last weeks of the campaign.

Biden's growing lead is also reflected in Senate races with Nate Silver giving Democrats a 66% chance of winning control of the senate. So overall what we are seeing in both national and state level polling is a gathering momentum for the Democrats, one that it will be difficult for Trump to reverse so late in the campaign.

The focus will now shift to the Vice Presidential debate tomorrow (Wednesday). Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris are roughly equal in what few polls have taken place of voter Vice-Presidential preferences but voters rarely take the vice-Presidential pick into account when casting their ballot. However provided Kamala Harris at least holds her own in the debate, her appearance should cement the "Obama Coalition" behind Biden and improve his rating among women voters and voters of colour.

Two further Presidential debates will take place on the 15th. and 22nd. of October but it is difficult to see them changing voter perceptions now, always assuming that Trump is completely recovered by then, and Biden doesn't fall over his own feet. This election is now, very definitely, Biden's to lose, but Democrats have managed to pull defeat from the jaws of victory before.

Display:
Things are happening quickly. In the last 3 hours:

  •  A RW propaganda outfit The Hill reported seniors, the GOP's biggest supporting demographic, are now +27 for Biden.  If anywhere close to accurate it presages a Blue Tsunami with the Dems possibly talking 5, 6, or even more Senate seats

  •  The Boston Herald reported:

In two days of polling before Trump got COVID, the president trailed  Biden by just a 46%-41% margin. In the three days of polling after the  coronavirus diagnosis, Biden held a 55%-34% lead. That means Biden's  lead grew by a whopping 16 points from pre-COVID to post-COVID.

Among all the 1,003 registered, likely voters in the nationwide Franklin  Pierce-Herald poll, Biden now holds a 51%-37% lead over Trump less than  a month before Election Day. Three percent support a third party candidate while 8% say they are still undecided.

  •  CNN reporting Trump has pulled ad spending in the two very close battleground states Iowa and Ohio.  The latter is an absolute Must Win for him to be re-elected.  Word is he thinks he's got Ohio.  

  •  Trump told the GOP to stop negotiating on a $2 Trillion stimulus package that even the morons at the Fed think is needed.

What with all else, I think it is safe to say Biden will be elected, the Democrats will hold and maybe extend their majority in the House, and the odds of the Dems flipping control of the Senate are increasing by leaps and bounds.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 6th, 2020 at 10:26:28 PM EST
I have a sneaking suspicion that Trump may have left hospital a little early, and that the cocktail of drugs he is taking (some experimental) may be masking or delaying the onset of more severe Covid-19 symptoms. Were he to suffer a severe relapse, one even his doctors couldn't hide, then his numbers, and that of many Republicans could go into free-fall.

Even an extension of the mini-epidemic amongst White House staff and Republican senators could be severely damaging, potentially caused by Trumps own reluctance to wear a mask. For a confirmed germophobe, Trump is being remarkably generous with his own bugs. The next debate could be the acid test. Has he really fully recovered and is he really going to tell Americans not to worry about the virus?

That should go down well with seniors...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 6th, 2020 at 10:43:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regeneron (REGN-COV2) --"compassionate use"
reference Regeneron's REGN-COV2 Antibody Cocktail Reduced Viral Levels and Improved Symptoms in Non-Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients, Sep 2020
archived Tue Mar 3rd, 2020, Fri Feb 7th, 2020, Tue Apr 7th, 2020

Gilead (Remdesivir, USAMRIID GS-5734) --"compassionate use" 5- or 10-day floor wax course
archived Sun Feb 16th, 2020, Mon May 4th, 2020, Mon May 18th, 2020, Sat May 23rd, 2020

dexamethasone --common corticosteroid, brand- and generic-names
reference: medlineplus.gov

Trump's antibody drug out of reach for all but 'rare' cases, Or a Weekend at Bernie's

The president's praise for Regeneron's monoclonal antibody treatment and apparently improved health are expected to drive demand
[...]
dexamethasone, an old and widely available steroid, which costs $10 to $20 for 30 tablets
The thrust of US print and cable telly expert "telemedicine" coverage since Thursday last has wavered between praise of "cutting-edge" health care and overweening attention to "transparent" disclosure of DJT's vital signs, leaving the masses of social media spectators either to resent needless deaths or vindicate COVID-19 "hoax" (still d/b/a "China flu).  
by Cat on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 03:38:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seemed to me that the race was frozen in place from the conventions until the first debate. Biden had a slight, precarious lead of a few points both in the overall popular vote and in battleground states. It was hard to tell if the difference was within the margin of error.

That changed after Trump's disastrous performance in the first debate and his subsequent hospitalization for COVID, although this did not become at all clear until yesterday, October 6. The debate and the hospitalization were two quick blows to Trump's reelection chances and they seem likely, at this point, to also secure the Senate for the Democrats.

But four weeks remains an eternity. Who knows what will happen between now and November 3, or, indeed, after November 3, even if Biden wins the election going away?

Interesting times indeed.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 05:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think his lead was slight or precarious.  Biden's basically ranged from "winning soundly if unspectacularly" to "completely beating Trump's ass" since...basically 2017 aside from a brief period post-impeachment/initial rally-round on Covid.

The lead wasn't really entirely comfortable, of course, in that I think we have reason to believe WI and PA are leaning a couple points more Republican than the country as a whole.  (Michigan all year seems to have snapped-back to being around the national polls.)

But Biden has basically led by at minimum a decent margin the whole way.

The disaster, if there is one and it isn't just a function of non-response bias, seems to be Trump's Covid diagnosis and subsequent behavior. The immediate post-debate polling showed a pretty modest bump for Unc (maybe a point or so).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 06:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If your candidate is within or close to the margin of error in large, important battleground states that is certainly a concern. And that was the case with Biden for most of the summer in PA, MI and WI. Whether it is precarious is a matter of semantics. If he is beyond the margin of error it is easier to relax.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:36:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So long as the focus was on replacing RBG on the supreme court, Trump was winning because the the Supreme court is a big concern for Republicans and reminds them of why they tolerate Trump in the first place. His nomination of Amy Comey Barrett also seems to have pleased conservatives no end.

And then the focus switched to his debate performance and then to his illness. Post debate bounces are often temporary, but this one was copper-fastened by his illness and the return of almost 100% focus on the pandemic - a strong issue for voters and Democrats.

It has also moved the focus away from the economy, which is a strong issue for Republicans and the only major issue on which Trump regularly outscores Biden. Silver has an article up querying why Trump has stopped negotiations on Stimulus - it helped his numbers big time last time.  No doubt he will try to bribe voters again with a personalised cheque...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 07:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not all about what Trump does. Recently Biden's ads have had less about "I'm not Trump/Orange man bad" and more about health care, education, wages and jobs.

You know, the stuff that the voters are actually interested in because they lack all of those.

Everyone knows Biden is never going to deliver any (people are not corporations), but at least his campaign is finally making the motions of giving an excuse for people left of Reagan to hold their nose and vote Biden.

by pelgus on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 08:39:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So long as the focus was on replacing RBG on the supreme court, Trump was winning because the the Supreme court is a big concern for Republicans and reminds them of why they tolerate Trump in the first place. His nomination of Amy Comey Barrett also seems to have pleased conservatives no end.

And then the focus switched to his debate performance and then to his illness.

No.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:06:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Disregarding all polls, Donnie did a bio-terrorism on his donors and is dying of just-the-flu. Can't imagine that's good for his prospects.
by generic on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 09:21:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In particular with his macho-man image, getting ill is bad, getting ill from a virus he his downplayed is even worse. Hence the posturing as not that ill. Which in turn works poorly when he has to go to the hospital and is quite clearly ill.

A politician with a more humble image might get a sympathy vote from getting ill. Norwegian PM Bondevik had a depressive period and on sick leave while being PM in late 90ies and if anything it appears to have strenghtened him politically.

by fjallstrom on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 07:43:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 01:38:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The article from The Hill is worth reading in its entirety. One of the analysist they quote is former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), a contributor for The Hill.

' "In almost all of the swing states allegedly in play ... the deciding vote will be independent women. That vote has historically been center-right, but these folks are totally frustrated with the president. They find his style and demeanor to be inconsistent and he's not getting that vote anywhere. That's the swing vote ... and I think he's lost them. People have made up their minds. He's in big trouble. It will be a tough election for the people that are on the ticket with him."

When asked if he thought it was too late for Trump to turn things around, Gregg replied: "Yes." '

The best thing about this turnaround is that Trump is psychologically incapable of stopping doing what is costing him votes. Instead he will double down. Trump has always been prone to megalomania and now, with the steroids he is taking, that megalomania is exponentiated. He looks almost certain to lose the election big time. But buckle up. It will be a wild ride.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 04:09:42 AM EST
Way back early 2010's I read an article making a good argument that there really is no "swing vote". With almost half the population not bothering to vote what looks like swing vote is actually voter activation.

Some candidates energize their "base" better than others, some even excite people who normally don't vote to go trough registration, suppression, gerrymandering and queuing to have their say.

Oddly enough, it seems to be Mr. Trump activating voters both for him and against him. Mr. Biden really doesn't seem to be able to energize even his own synapses at times.

by pelgus on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 08:38:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You always hear this. People can't understand that there are voters that deeply loathe both parties/candidates and are not interested in a "Lesser evil" charade. If "none of the above" was a choice, voter participation would shoot right up.
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:16:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pulling ads in Iowa and Ohio - money running out.

Well spoken address by Joe Biden @Gettysburg.

Indeed, the SARS-Covid-2 is slowly overcoming the full cocktail thrown at in in a very early stage.

Trump's breathing difficulty due to inflammation of upper respiratory and lungs.

Experimental medication and known side-effects on mental state such as mania.

Erratic decision making will increase with a ghostly empty White House w staff in quarantine.

Trump reverses course on coronavirus relief talks, dangles new $1,200 stimulus checks

Facebook and Twitter now delete Trump's posts about false coronavirus claims.

November 3 can't get here fast enough ... waiting for call to WS  militia and his Proud Boys.

Prosecutors of Southern District of New York ready to throw the book @RealTrump for alleged fraude, white-washing and tax evasion ...

by Oui on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 09:07:05 AM EST
I'd ignore the battleground average for now.  There's a bit of a dearth of (high-quality) state polling at the moment.  

The "battlegrounds" this year also include states like Texas and Georgia, so in addition to the changes to polling methodology (now weighting by education), it's not really an apples-to-apples comparison.

Both FiveThirtyEight and RCP have Biden currently leading all swing states except Texas and leading by 5+ (nearly 6) in the Big 3 (WI/MI/PA).

Still time for things to change obviously.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 10:27:13 AM EST
The Real Clear politics definition of Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016) is: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona - and doesn't include new battleground states like Ga and TX. While these widen the playing field where Biden is competitive I wouldn't want to be relying on them as potential tipping point states.

Nate Silver currently has Pennsylvania as the tipping point state and NE2, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio are all tending blue on top of that before you get to Georgia, ME2, Iowa and Texas as potential swing states. We're in landslide territory if any of the last four turn blue.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 11:08:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All the evidence is pointing to Trump losing and losing badly.

WaPo:

"A GOP group working to elect Senate Republicans conducted polling over  the weekend in four states -- Colorado, Georgia, Montana and North  Carolina -- as Trump was hospitalized. The president's numbers dropped  `significantly' in every state, falling by about five points in all four."

Daily Beast:

Increasingly convinced that President Donald Trump's election chances  are grim, top Republican donors, lobbyists, and operatives are  directing their attention to the Senate in hopes of keeping a majority  in the chamber and, with it, a check on a future President Joe Biden.

That argument concedes the Presidency and they are moving to damage control.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 03:57:02 PM EST
In 2016 Trump got 2 million more votes than Romney's 2012 total.  That means 2 million votes that wouldn't have passed the Likely Voter polling screens.

That's not happening this year.  Trump doesn't have a group of new voters to bring in AND he has lost significant numbers of his 2016 voters, notably suburban white women.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 04:02:10 PM EST
If Trump doesn't up his vote total from 2016, Biden's going to turn him into mulch.  

I think he will though, just because everybody's amped-up for this one.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 06:26:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's nobody left for Trump to mobilize and he's lost swathes of voters.  

At best he'll get ~60 million.  I wouldn't be surprised if he got much less than that.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:05:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He could get zero votes in California, New York, Illinois, and Oregon and still win. The so-called Purple States are the only ones that count.
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
100% accurate but the topic was total vote.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:30:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Total vote means absolutely nothing.
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 01:36:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nate Silver's model shows a non-trivial chance of Trump winning the college despite losing the popular vote by 5%.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 10:58:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
About a 2% chance if he lost the popular vote by 5+:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632


Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 11:23:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump rips `FiveThirtyEight' pollster for 2020 election prediction
The pollster "FiveThirtyEight" gave Trump a 14 percent chance of winning the election and Biden a 86 percent chance, citing 40,000 simulations it ran of the November contest.

In 2016, the polling site said Clinton had a 71.4 percent chance of winning and Trump had a 28.6 percent chance.

by Bernard on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 06:15:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Use this as a guideline: 55% voter turnout means Rethuglicans win; 60% turnout means Dems win; 65% means Dems win big; 70% means Rethuglican Party is crushed.
by rifek on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 03:04:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FWIW:

137,143,218 2016 total votes
131,473,705 2008 total votes
last 50 years

2008: Barack Obama v John McCain (61.65%)
  1. Donald Trump v Hillary Clinton (60.1%)
  2. George W. Bush v John Kerry (60.1%)
  3. Barack Obama v Mitt Romney (58.6%)
  4. Bill Clinton v George W. H. Bush (58.1%)
  5. Richard Nixon v George McGovern (56.2%)
  6. Ronald Reagan v Walter Mondale (55.2%)
  7. Jimmy Carter v Gerald Ford (54.8%)
  8. Ronald Reagan v Jimmy Carter (54.2%)
  9. George W. Bush v Al Gore (54.2%)
  10. George H. W. Bush v Michael Dukakis (52.8%)
  11. Bill Clinton v Bob Dole (51.7%)
Electoral college is not well understood.
by Cat on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 11:16:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Over a Week Before Election, Early Voting Surpasses 2016 Level
62M, or "44% of of the total votes counted in the last presidential election". m'k.

I blame IRAN, possibly RUSSIA! or QNON. Mostly weed.

by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 01:16:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
WA, MT, ID, NV, CA, WY, CO, UT, MN, WI, IA, IL, MI, MD, VT, DC, CT, NH, ME: 19 unrestricted
archived "exit polling"
by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 01:52:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump has always done everything his way. He is always the best, always right, can change opinions on a dime without any consequences. People love him for his contrary disruptive self - until they don't.

Trump's debate performance was Trump on steroids, (literally?). But, for a change, it didn't improve his position relative to Biden. Polls show that he has lost seniors and women in large numbers. And Trump's statements about the CORONA virus and his whole attitude towards precautions now only play to his base, and his base is not enough for him to win.

But Trump has to be Trump. He is psychologically incapable of presenting himself as anything else.

That is his fatal flaw.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 04:54:57 PM EST
Perhaps they don't know that Biden was the author of the Catfood Commission. Idiots will be gaping like carp when Biden and Pelosi and Schumer cut Social security by 30% because inflow is greater than outflow and "pay-go". They will tinker with the tax code but their billionaire backers will keep their tax cuts.

There were at least five Democrats of the nine running that I could have voted for. Harris and Biden weren't in that list.

by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:37:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Perhaps that's why you're StillInTheWilderness"

     -- Lost Senior


"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 04:12:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Glad to hear from you again, CH.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 04:38:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you have the proper skill set the wilderness is not so bad a place to be just now.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 12:35:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mixed bag on polls today so far:

Marquette University -- sort of the go-to Wisconsin pollster -- has Biden +5.  

NYT/Siena has Biden up 6 in Nevada and 1 in Ohio.  Which is...weird.

Quinnipiac has Biden +5 in Iowa, +13 in Pennsyltucky and +11 (LOL) in Florida.  (FLORIDIAN NARRATOR: Biden is not going to win Florida by 11.)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 06:41:31 PM EST
FLORIDIAN NARRATOR: Biden is not going to win Florida by 11.

Voter suppression?
(not hanging chads, I hope...)

by Bernard on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 06:44:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, not due to voter suppression.  

Florida just doesn't work that way.  It's a pretty evenly divided state and pretty stable.  It changes a great deal over the cycles, but the changes tend to offset, demographically -- e.g., growing Hispanic/Latino and African American/Afro-Caribbean populations but also growing number of rural whites from the South/Midwest, etc.

It just doesn't lend itself to big margins.  I don't think anybody's won it statewide by double digits (sans a big third-party candidate) since...Jeb in 2002, at the height of his brother's popularity post-9/11.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 06:51:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(I think Rubio won by double digits in 2010, but he only got a little north of 50%, and the left was split between the Dem and Charlie Crist running as an Indy.)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 06:53:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More like voter depression
by asdf on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 01:16:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Biden currently has comfortable advantages (i.e. circa 2 times the polling margin of error) in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That is all the Democrats need to win at this stage. However, four years ago Clinton had larger advantages in these three states and end up losing them all.

But. Biden is polling much stronger than Clinton in a large number of other "battleground" states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Texas and New Hampshire. And  momentum seems at this stage to be towards Biden, whereas four years ago it was slipping away from Clinton.

Naturally, none of this matters that much, as the Republican party is working to have state legislatures nominating electoral college members directly. After which all sorts of crazy things will follow.

Final note: I suspect this will be the last time Texas votes Republican. The demographics and economics of that state are changing fast and away from the rural mind frame of yesteryear.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:13:09 AM EST
" as the Republican party is working to have state legislatures nominating electoral college members directly" How anachronistic of them. That's what the USA started with.

Wisconsin: I suspect that the Kenosha looting and burning turned a lot of voters to trump. They wouldn't tell  pollsters that. People do lie to pollsters when they are ashamed to admit who they are voting for.

by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:43:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin has an undeserved reputation for liberalism.  

There are parts that are out right Nazi and huge swatches of racists and bigots.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:34:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's Madison, and there's everwhere else.  Milwaukie is Opus Recti Right Catholic.
by rifek on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 03:08:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How Europeans view democracy in the U.S. - poll:

Minority of Europeans think US election will be free and fair | The Guardian |

The American President as leader of the Free World?

Across the seven countries, a low of 6% of Danes and high of 15% of Italians feel Trump has been good for the world.

What does this Republican think about Democracy ...

by Oui on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 02:18:00 PM EST
You poke your nose into some of the darkest corners of the internet!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:29:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
😎
by Oui on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 07:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For millennia.  Modern forms of government actually come from the Germanic "barbarians". But, of course you know that. :-)
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:46:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 05:28:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The morons were plotting on Facebook! ROTFLMAO  Babes in the woods.
Reminds me of the Framers' march on Washington. I was working there at the time in Crystal City.
They were going to drive their tractors around the Capitol but they let the cops persuade them to march on foot with the cops promising they could go back to them afterward. Of course, the tractors were surrounded with old buses and other heavy junk to pen them in. The farmers were shocked that the cops lied! The anti-war groups would never have believed the cops, but at heart the farmers were "law and order" types, although there were some brutal battles on the street. I remember video of a tractor squashing a police car and cops swarming over the front, smashing the windsheild (and the farmer) with long nightsticks. Really waling on him.
Didn't help that the farmers were mostly southern whites and the DC cops are almost all black (I've never seen a white DC cop. IIRC the city was 80% black).
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 01:20:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 02:25:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oops!  "Farmers" but I see your point!
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 04:36:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A minority of Americans believe the same. Irrespective of whom wins, the other side will think the election was stolen from them. That is the popular vote on the the 3rd of November is unlikely to decide who the next president will be.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 04:13:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The popular vote absolutely won't determine the next president just as it didn't in 2016.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:36:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lee is a nuclear-powered douche canoe, and I should know because he and Romney are "my" senators.
by rifek on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 04:39:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Article V
Section 4.

The United States shall guarantee to every state in this union a republican form of government, and shall protect each of them against invasion; and on application of the legislature, or of the executive (when the legislature cannot be convened) against domestic violence.

by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 05:51:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 01:23:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The defense rests.
by Cat on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 02:26:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Republican senator says 'democracy isn't the objective' of US system | The Guardian |

by Oui on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 07:33:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is "representative democracy," is it not?
archived DICTION CORNER

See also similacrum

by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 08:54:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, all white citizens and millionaires must be represented...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 11:13:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ahem. The minority (10%) within the majority (72%) has enjoyed many "brand" names as well as the devotion of the police (πόλις).
by Cat on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 02:40:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"we Serve and Protect"
i.e. We serve the politicians and protect the rich.
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 04:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My senators are pale shadows of their fathers, Lee even more than Mitt the Shitt.
by rifek on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 03:40:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The premier political analyst group The Cook Report:

Republicans no longer have a realistic path to picking up the 17 seats they need for a majority. In fact, if the 25 races in our Toss Up column were to break evenly, Democrats would pick up five to six seats. Right now, the most likely outcome is a Democratic net gain of between five  and ten seats, with anything from no net change to a Democratic gain of 15 seats possible.

I can't think of another election cycle when a party picked up 41 seats in an election and then picked up another 5 to 10 in the next.  Certainly not in the modern era.

With the House majority safe and the Presidency as good as it can get the focus is on the Senate and there things don't look so rosy.  Cunningham, the Democratic challenger in North Carolina is in a sexting scandal and Hegar the Texas candidate just proudly announced she didn't vote for Obama in 2008 or 2012.  So two winnable seats are now very questionable (NC) and probably out of reach (Tx)

So it now looks like the Republicans will keep the Senate

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:18:20 PM EST
Alabama friends tell me that Jones has a good chance of losing. And they are supporters.
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:49:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jones has always been a long shot for re-election. Tommy Tuberville is not Roy Moore. But Trump could yet pull Jones through, if he just keeps on doing what he is currently doing, which is working great - for the Democrats.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 04:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jones has a snowball in hell's chance of being re-elected.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:40:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not a single recent poll has Tuberville in single digits.  All of them have him winning by 10 to 18 points.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I said it is a long shot, and Trump will have to work really hard for Jones to pull it out.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:15:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know, did y'all never watch Tuberville coach an Iron Bowl?

/snark

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 04:39:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A better candidate, like Beto, might have won in Texas. We will have to wait for more N.C. polls to tell if Cunningham's indiscretions have been fatal. He was consistently ahead for the last month by about the margin of error, so he might bounce back or the fact that Tillis is positive for COVID might turn out to be more important in the longer run, but Tillis could always have another faux pas. In any case there remain Iowa, Montana and Georgia as possible fourth seats.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 05:00:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It pisses me off Democrats keep nominating people who can't keep their pants zipped and Democratic candidates for high office who don't vote for the Democratic presidential nominees.  

Fuckhead in Kentucky did the same thing.  McConnell was vulnerable and the Dem candidate declared she couldn't remember who she voted for in 2008 and 2016.  Her vote collapsed and McConnell waltzed through with the results we see.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:43:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But Amy McGrath was much loved by the DNC centrists.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:18:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:29:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I'd still bet on Cunningham.  The polling I've seen suggests people don't really care.  Plus, are they even going to remember it much as Trump continues running around saying crazy shit?

Hegar might be able to win if Biden wins Texas, but it's a stretch.  Kansas and South Carolina are probably both better bets.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:24:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If Cunningham hangs on, then I think the Dems wind up at 51 or 52 -- winning CO/AZ/ME/NC/IA and perhaps one more of AK/KS/MT/SC/TX.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:26:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I haven't seen polling of the N.C. Senate race since the news of Cunningham's unzipped fly emerged. What have I missed?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 12:42:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A very ugly sight, no doubt. I wonder if he is deformed like Clinton.
by StillInTheWilderness on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 03:22:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Federal judge temporarily blocks Board of Elections settlement decided Friday, 3 Oct
The settlement extended the number of days the Board of Elections would accept mailed-in ballots to nine as long as the ballot was postmarked by 5 p.m. Nov. 3, which is Election Day.

It also allowed absentee voters without witness signatures to sign affidavits that it was their vote in order to fix the ballot.

last year, Federal judge to block latest North Carolina voter ID mandate
.
.
.
1789
archived "Stamps"

by Cat on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 02:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Much speculation, no information - AFAICT

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 05:23:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 05:36:56 PM EST
Word is the private polls are showing the Republicans doing even worse than the public polls and the Republicans are freaking out.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:58:05 PM EST
All the GOP has to do is get their justice onto the Supreme Court and all this crazy stuff about letting the people choose the president will be out the window.
by asdf on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:03:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Amy Coney Barrett is seated on the Supremes, they will hand the Presidency to Trmp, whatever the vote count, IF the votes actually get counted.

If you can, vote, yes, vote, please vote;  but Trmp et alia have already made it clear that they will take this to court, all the way to the Supreme Court and rely upon their 6 (ahem) "Justices" to do for Trmp what the Supremes did for W Bush back in 2000.

At least, that's my thinking now.

Solar IS Civil Defense

by gmoke on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 08:16:22 PM EST
I was thrilled to learn last night that USPS delivered an absentee ballot to my Z informant, MD resident-ME student. 2020 is her first GE, featuring POTUS!

< wipes tears >

Waves of nostalgia from ELECTION '84 fill my heart.

by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:01:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If it comes to that, the House of Representative has its own devices to botch things up. As Lord Buckethead would put it: "it will be a shit show".

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 06:56:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Elderly Pair

Nutty Donald and Crazy Nancy

Pelosi talks of invoking the 25th amendment. Could someone of the Biden/Harris ticket tell her to shut up!

by Oui on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:26:10 PM EST
"Washington's growing obsession: The 25th Amendment - Politico"
in Predictions for 2018
by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:33:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Applies more to Biden! And Harris becomes the first woman POTUS. Will HRC have a stroke in anger?
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 01:29:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the more hilarious clips circulating the twitterverse this summer was Killary, at home webcam, promoting her NEW! podcast venture. Wm Jefferson was rolling around (seated) in the background trying to keep in frame and couldn't get a word in edgewise.
by Cat on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 02:33:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump is under the influence of Dexamethasone a steroid known to have psychiatric side effects.  His recent behavior is increasingly bizarre.

New Bonkers Interview: Trump Says He Beat Biden in Second Debate, an Event That Has Yet to Happen

"The president, with guidance from the Trump sycophant Fox host, hit  many of his usual unhinged, baseless, racist, dangerous, callous,  boast-filled notes during the 55-minute call-in interview.
<snip>
The president said he will not participate in a virtual debate,  planned for October 15, because the commission's action is all a ruse to  protect Joe Biden. Trump also claimed that not only did he beat Biden  in the first debate but that he also scored a victory against his  opponent in the second debate -- the future debate that he had just told  Bartiromo he would not attend."

I note the man has operational control over thousands of nuclear weapons and maybe it's a good idea to have a way to control him should his dementia get even worse.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 02:53:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
not that one, the other one
by Cat on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 02:34:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Remove her from office ... Pelosi Act of Defiance a month before the Presidential Election is ill-timed and will solely serve to give oxygen to a Trump campaign already declared brain dead. She lacks ability to reason. So poor!

Pelosi: Congress will discuss rules for Trump's removal under 25th amendment | The Guardian |

Ted Cruz warns the election `could be a bloodbath of Watergate proportions' for GOP | CNBC |

by Oui on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 03:01:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree the move is politically ill-timed.  And I'd rather not have a total madman at the helm of the US' nuclear arsenal.  

IMO, there is a very real danger of Trump ordering a nuclear strike on, say, the People's Republic of China and with the top military commanders in quarantine due to Covid I'm not sure there's anyone capable of stopping him.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 03:19:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More likely targeting the Mullahs of Iran ...

One last favor to family friend Bibi in a SARS Covid-2 infected Israel ... top notch hi-tech and medical technology ... excellent weapons and nuclear arsenal.

Israel's best friend in the White House

Benjamin Netanyahu's campaign speeches, billboards and social media videos have all heavily featured President Donald Trump's image, statements and pro-Israel actions as endorsements of the long-seated prime minister.

Sheldon Adelson and support for a nuclear attack on Iran ...

Have no fear ... two military valets carrying the "nuclear football" have contracted corona.

by Oui on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 04:10:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 07:38:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 11:03:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 11:22:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Republican Ethics and "Saving" a President ...

At least five of the candidate COVID-19 vaccines use one of two human fetal cell lines: HEK-293, a kidney cell line widely used in research and industry that comes from a fetus aborted in about 1972; and PER.C6, a proprietary cell line owned by Janssen, a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, developed from retinal cells from an 18-week-old fetus aborted in 1985. Both cell lines were developed in the lab of molecular biologist Alex van der Eb at Leiden University.

Covid drug given to Trump developed using cells derived from aborted fetus | The Guardian |

The 2020 Republican party platform explicitly opposes embryonic stem cell research, and calls for a ban on federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.

"We stopped the federal funding of fetal tissue research, which everybody felt was so important ..." the president told supporters in January 2020. "We're standing up to the pro-abortion lobby like never before.

The HEK-293T line of cells has been "immortalized", meaning they divide freely in the lab. Regeneron said the company does not consider the cells "tissue".

Development of the Regeneron antibody cocktail is supported by a $450m grant from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (Barda).

This President is DOOMED! Where's John Hagee?? Oops, infected with SARS Covid-2.

by Oui on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 09:54:40 AM EST
by Oui on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 10:20:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fourth large-scale COVID-19 vaccine trial begins in the United States, 23 Sep
A fourth Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating an investigational vaccine for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has begun enrolling adult volunteers. The trial is designed to evaluate if the investigational Janssen COVID-19 vaccine (JNJ-78436725) can prevent symptomatic COVID-19 after a single dose regimen. Up to 60,000 volunteers will be enrolled in the trial at up to nearly 215 clinical research sites in the United States and internationally.
One of these is UC-San Diego, also administering Moderna, AstraZenca.
The Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson developed the investigational vaccine (also known as Ad.26.COV2.S) and is leading the clinical trial as regulatory sponsor. Janssen, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, are funding the trial.
[...]
"Four COVID-19 vaccine candidates are in Phase 3 clinical testing in the United States just over eight months after SARS-CoV-2 was identified. This is an unprecedented feat for the scientific community made possible by decades of progress in vaccine technology and a coordinated, strategic approach across government, industry and academia," said NIAID Director Anthony S. Fauci, M.D. "It is likely that multiple COVID-19 vaccine regimens will be required to meet the global need. The Janssen candidate has showed promise in early-stage testing and may be especially useful in controlling the pandemic if shown to be protective after a single dose."
[...]
The Phase 3 trial is being conducted in collaboration with Operation Warp Speed(link is external) (OWS), a multi-agency collaboration overseen by HHS and the Department of Defense that aims to accelerate the development, manufacturing and distribution of medical countermeasures for COVID-19. OWS and CoVPN also are assisting with additional COVID-19 preventive candidate vaccines, including mRNA-1273, an investigational vaccine co-developed by NIAID and the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotechnology company Moderna, Inc., and AZD1222, a vaccine candidate being developed by United Kingdom-based biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca.
[...]
Adults who are interested in joining this study can visit Coronaviruspreventionnetwork.org(link is external) or ClinicalTrials.gov and search identifier NCT04505722.
archived Sun Aug 4th, 2019, Tue Jun 4th, 2019, Mon Jan 14th, 2013
by Cat on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 09:08:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
U.S. signs agreement with AstraZeneca to develop, supply COVID-19 antibody treatment [?!]
One trial will evaluate the safety and efficacy of the experimental treatment to prevent infection for up to 12 months, in about 5,000 participants, while the second trial will evaluate post-exposure preventative and pre-emptive treatment in roughly 1,100 participants.
walks and talks like a vaccine, but
Trump credited Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc's REGN.O therapeutic for his recovery. Trump received Regeneron's treatment last week after he was diagnosed with COVID-19.
Johnson & Johnson fetus stem cell oppo campaign developing ...
by Cat on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 10:14:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 02:54:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Abbott wins U.S. emergency use authorization for new COVID-19 antibody test
"Abbott has already received emergency use authorization for seven tests"
by Cat on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 03:04:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Programming a blood tester. Abbott knows how to work the Feds.  

Interesting observations:
US approval five to seven years of foreign testing.
Longest European delay: Germany six months. Germany re-ran all our test themselves.
Shortest approval: UK. One month, accepted our test reports as gospel. Delay for paper processing.
IIRC France re-ran some tests but not all. Even Italy did some tests.

The blood testing machine sold for about one million dollars but the real money was in the reagent, $10K per liter. Management continually urged us to speed up the tests so the machine would use reagent faster.
Only USA & Europe paid full price for the machine. Maybe Japan. I don't recall us marketing there. Third world got it either greatly reduced or free. Still had to buy the reagent.

by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 03:20:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is always a good corporate strategy to jack up the price on things that are essential to life. If they could patent breathing oxygen they would. That is why corporations have to be tightly regulated.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 12:41:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's sort of like the H-P ink strategy.
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 03:31:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can the reagent not be sourced from a third party generic manufacturer?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 11:04:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, patented.
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 08:14:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Truly hope it works well ....

Abbott ID NOW CoV-2 molecular point-of-care test for novel coronavirus

May 2020: FDA Alert Inaccuracy Abbott ID NOW

by Oui on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 02:33:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the few companies that I worked for that was serious about software testing. More man-hours on testing than development. Many more. The other serious one was S&C Electric that made High Voltage Switch Gear.

PC software is the worst. "Looks like it works, push it out the door. All software has bugs."  Cell phone backbone software is in between." I still remember a hard guideline from a company that shall remain nameless: "Hold onto the line as long as the billing data isn't lost. The last thing to lose is the billing data."

by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 08:21:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 11:40:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wall Street betting on Democratic sweep .... more trust in economic recovery and employment under Biden leadership.

Biden, Democratic Victories Would Be Best Outcome For The Economy, Moody's Says | Forbes |

A victory for Joe Biden over Donald Trump and a Democratic sweep--where Republicans lose the Senate--would result in the biggest rebound in economic growth and employment, according to a recent analysis of both candidates' economic proposals by Moody's Analytics.

by Oui on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 01:46:08 PM EST
"economic recovery"?  "employment"?  Don't you mean more trust in stock values?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 01:49:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Quite similar to 2008 and the Republican mess of the financial and banking crisis. It ain't gonna be easy ... expect the Democrats to keep ACA and support workers to adept to a new business environment in a digital revolution ...
indeed with Trump and Republicans only the stock market would matter and the trickle (?) up of wealth to the happy 0.1%. 😖
by Oui on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 02:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by asdf on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 09:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Today Trump tweeted his support for the militia people who conspired to kidnap and murder Gov. Whitmer of Michigan.

Then he told fascist radio - Rush Limbaugh - "If you fuck around with us, if you do something bad to us, we are gonna do things to you that have never been done before." talking like the cheap crook he is.

THEN he said he is going to take a medical test live on Fox News.

And I'm sure his ignorant hick Evangelical bigoted Republican base is eating all this up.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 07:29:30 PM EST
Certain questions arise about the scope of the medical test.
by asdf on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 02:21:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:07:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"He's got a pulse. Good to go!"


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 05:38:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you believe this?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 05:51:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given the absence of a confirmed public negative Covid follow up test, one must assume that Trump is still covid positive and a super spreader not wearing a mask to protect others from his infection and putting many security and other staff whose duty is to be by his side in close proximity at risk. It takes a truly sociopathic personality not to see any problem with this.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 09:33:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With sagging popularity ratings:

Home by Christmas

All US troops in Afghanistan should be home by Christmas: Trump

With an eye on the Nov 3 US presidential election, Donald Trump has announced that the remainder of American troops in Afghanistan should be "home by Christmas".

The Afghan Taliban reaction to Mr Trump's announcement has been positive, with a spokesman for the armed group tweeting that the `Islamic Emirate' welcomes the move.

The Taliban on Trump: "We hope he will win the election" and withdraw U.S. troops | CBS News |

by Oui on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 07:55:20 PM EST
Extreme voting lines expose where Georgia primary failed | AJC - July 28, 2020 |

by Oui on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 06:03:27 AM EST
Incompetence is a quality much prized in the deep South.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 03:10:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not doing anything to make the voting system work is an easy way to suppress voting
by asdf on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 09:48:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps Azerbaijan will be a perfect hangout for Trump ?

by Oui on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 10:11:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
with creditors chasing him for $400Million in debts...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 12:51:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now he REALLY regrets not having built a Moscow Trump Tower. How long would extradition take in Ireland or Scotland? Since Scotland is still part of the UK he might be held in The Tower of London while awaiting adjudication of his extradition claim. Boris and his fellow Tories would do all they could to help.

So maybe he would end up at Trump Tower Istanbul. Ergogan could be even more helpful - or not.

Damn all these extradition treaties!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 01:41:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably not. I didn't read the Yella Cake story about The Tax filings, but secondary commentary left with me the distinct impression, Yella Cake offered no distinction between personal (DJT) and corporate (The Trump Organiztion) obligations--not to mention tax avoidance and evasion.

As implied even in this thread, $400M likely represents mortgage balance of TTO RE portfolio. This amount is a negligible proportion of total liability (imputed debt service notwithstanding) against total assets value (disputed by Michael Cohen) by comparison to similarly situated publicly-traded or privately-held transnational RE firms. Take Cushman & Wakefield for example, formerly run by PE groups: 2019 10-K position -- total liabilities $5.8B, total debt $2.6B, total assets $7.1B.

Which goes to show, yet again, the prurient appetites of the US American public for displays of moral turpitude (eg. losses, treason, sexual deviance) instead of reckoning with the principles of moral rectitude (eg. equity, profit, capital accumulation) they supposedly admire and innocently emulate.

It would be satisfying to me, if this belated PROBE led by SDNY concluded with an indictment of either DJT or TTO or the bookkeepers, but I'm sure now more than ever this was never the objective. Too many jobs in www organized crime hang in the balance.

by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 02:31:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 01:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump doesn't quality except perhaps in an outpost settlement  ...

Haven for Jewish billionaires, not losers

by Oui on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 02:24:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He could convert to Judaism, get citizenship, and then run for Parliament, thus getting immunity from extradition.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 08:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good.  Maybe that means he won't go home to Mar-a-Lago or -- worse -- his Jupiter golf club and fuck up all the traffic when we go down to see our families for the holidays.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 03:00:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He'll have to pick a place with no extradition law and no masking laws (so on second thought, Israel isn't a good idea.)
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 09:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This leaves Kazakhstan, obviously:

by Bernard on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 08:35:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
got nothing to do with long lines. The correct answer is necessity, as always.

Let's not forget, m'k: GA had been one of nine (9) states permanently subjected to VRA sec. 5 until 2013 Shelby ruling (jurisdictions). The state has been a civil rights sewer despite concerted "expert" opinions to veil SOP, crushing its conspicuous black constituency, with DNC iconography --Abrams (2018 loss), Lewis (2020 memorial), and a laissez faire remedy (J. Lewis Voting Rights ASSvancement Act, 2020) -- or "blame the victims" purported low turnout, or Magical Margin of Error (MOE) statistical "calculation".

I warned all intoxicated by poll smoke. The uniparty has one play, many tactics, to simulate electoral enfranchisement d/b/a "majoritarian rule" a/k/a "representative democracy" d/b/a "racial equity".

I'm warning you now: This time the bottom, or "base", has truly fallen out of the symbolic pyramid scheme. Assumed predictability of black and latino voters' party preference won't guarantee the POTUS mandate that national committees seek. Under the radar, since 2016 schisms in both parties, under-40s ideological agitation has effectively decapitated party line and party re-alignment. "Popular vote" pragmatism has moved to "down-ballot" correction. In short, electing not to vote on POTUS nominees at the polls.

NB. This year DNC TWICE lost a suit to "restore" mechanical "straight-ticket" ballot design in TX.

Empirically, one would expect significant proportional discrepancies in ballot shares by office, even with reported increase in total ballots cast. OTOH, "experts" are unlikely to produce such detailed analysis, preferring instead to maintain rationales for cyclical "voter participation".

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 02:56:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unlike most pundits, I remain sceptical of a presumed Biden Win. Biden is still doing less well against Trump than Hillary did at the same stage in the race in key swing states.  I got burned with Hillary, not gonna happen again.

That said, do you really believe 4 more years of Trump will be better for minorities than even a tired Biden? I personally think Trump will really go insane in a second term. We ain't seen nothing yet...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 03:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm unconvinced of the statistical value of averaging the battleground states. Trump needs a clean sweep in all of them to win, and it's hard to assess the chances of that without breaking them out individually.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 04:32:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, he needs three of four out of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsyltucky and Florida on the assumption nothing weird happens in which he loses, like, North Carolina while winning PA or something.

But yeah, the battleground average doesn't make much sense.  Biden's up 6+ in enough states to get above 270, last I looked.

Biden's closing to winning Alaska right now than Trump is to winning Wisconsin.  And about as close to winning South Carolina.

Right now, it simply isn't very close in the polling.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 10:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bah "closer to winning Alaska," not "closing" of course, but you get my point.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 10:23:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My only point is that Hillary was +6 or more in those states as well 17 days out. Her vote then nosedived because of Comey, whereas it is difficult to see the same happening to Biden bar a senior moment or two in the debates. All I'm saying is it's not baked in the cake yet. Half baked, maybe.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 11:16:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"do you really believe 4 more years of Trump will be better for minorities"

No.

Do I expect 4 more years of Biden admin to improve the welfare of [INSERT ETHNIC MINORITY GROUP]?

No.

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 06:07:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It might encourage cops to kill them in slightly lower numbers...


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 06:20:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
doubtful to judge by lip service paid, in the past 3 months, by sundry MD general assembly "work group" and "task force" hearings of complaints against the state's Law Enforcement Officers' Bill of Rights (LEOBR)--a military commissions act of 2006, if you will, adopted by the states listed.

First, MD's legislature is not in session; delegates have been hiding at home since March 18, 2020, and chambers' leaders refused to call a "special session" to over-ride Mag-lev destruction of 2020 civic, fiscal, PH, and environmental acts; the Dem super-majority "holding their powder" for the next regular 90-day session? Or Mag-lev's last day in 2022.

Second, talk about turkeys and slugs! In the interest of "transparency," one might suppose, these committees exercised their gall by broadcasting their inane deliberations.

MD delegates are reluctant to recommend repeal of the statute which indemnifies and rewards LEOs' "misconduct" despite passionate advocacy of "minority" witnesses to bind LEO "willful" or "reckless" injuries to suspects to existing criminal code. Rather, hours of consensus are crystallizing around "reform" in the statute that preserves low standards in lawful use of [INSERT ADVERB] force, LEO union adjudication in K12 schools [!] and municipalities, and deferential badge penalties as more turgid diction.

To be sure, Baltimore, whose city council authority doesn't supercede police department autonomy granted by Annapolis, will suffer unique adversity derived from the suburban counties' indifference.

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 09:37:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Press POTUS 2024 moderate candidate popularity contest developing ...

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 09:45:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 03:58:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:47:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Although it's been an exhausting coronavirus PANDEMIC thus far, and, ahem, I've been informed that I have no right to be read, I have several times mentioned Maryland Gov. Larry "Mag-lev" Hogan's local and national significance in the dissemination of "best practices" in chaotic public policy and PPE wholesale privateering in my dispatches from the Chesapeake "purple state":

As Washington Post moderate-republic poster child, as chairperson of the nga.org with rival Andrew Cuomo, as Pence-surrogate and Reagan-law'n'order stooge, as surreptitiously declared candidate for POTUS, succeeding Biden/Harris.

Kamala?! is no Truman; she's not even a Gerald Ford.

ubn warned. Campaign 2024 begins Sep 28, 2021. Please make a note of it.

by Cat on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:36:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks. I still haven't figured out his relevance to the 2020 election as he is term limited and won't be running for governor again. But now doubt I am missing something profound in your subtle and limpid prose!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:56:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2020 is done.
by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:09:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The whole point of my new diary is that 2020 is not done yet and any number of outcomes are still possible.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 01:06:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Did I never share my short-lived experience as a campaign volunteer in 2006? welll, see it all started with an ad with the wind of FIVE HUNDRED uni students at his back ...
by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 06:41:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 12:47:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump won in 2016 by keeping the Republican coalition together and bringing in 2,000,000 new voters who wouldn't have passed the Likely Voter polling screens.  Trump won by ~80,000 votes in just the right places.

Trump has fractured the Republican coalition.  White suburban women left to vote for the Democrats in 2018 and there's no indication they are returning.

While it is possible he could bring in 2,000,000 new voters it is equally likely Biden will bring in 2,000,000 new voters as well.  The latter is much more likely than the former.

It is hard to keep in mind polling is descriptive of the time the polling took place not predictive of the future.  When asymmetrical shocks, like 2,000,000 unexpected voters showing up, happen things get a wee bit weird.  And, in fact, the national polling was fairly accurate.  Clinton when in with about a 2 percent lead and she won the popular voter by around 2 percent.  She didn't win because the US has an archaic election system designed for slave owners and when the horse was the fastest land transportation.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Oct 18th, 2020 at 06:45:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought it was Donald who had brokered the deal and got all credit Tony Blair caught red-handed or pockets lines with ... ??

Who attended the Abraham Accord signing?

Tony Blair, former British PM and Middle East peace envoy for the Quartet of the UN, US, EU and Russia, was also a guest at the ceremony, which took place on the south lawn of the White House.

His relationship with the Gulf state didn't affect his important work trying to solve the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Why was Tony Blair being paid by the UAE while working as Middle East envoy?

Breaking UK Covid-19 quarantine rules after his 2-day visit to Washington DC.

by Oui on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 10:14:03 PM EST
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 11:17:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 11:18:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Sun Oct 18th, 2020 at 01:04:38 PM EST
A Green Socialist Revolution - Ardern

A Consensus Builder In South Pacific

Jacinda Ardern considers coalition despite New Zealand election landslide | The Guardian |

Ardern's party won the highest percentage of the vote in more than five decades, claiming 64 seats in parliament, with her handling of the Covid-19 crisis regarded as decisive in her win.

Ardern said new talent coming into the Labour caucus included GPs, a midwife and an infectious disease expert, which would inform her decision on who would take over the crucial health portfolio.

...
Green party co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson have confirmed they spoke to Ardern. The party won 10 seats in parliament - two more than the previous election - and is hoping to be invited to join her government - pushing it further to the left.

70 maps that explain America

America has become a gerontocracy. We must change that

Labour dominant in New Zealand after Ardern win ... good luck for NZ with two dozen SARS Covid-19 deaths. Bravo Labour and NZ Socialism and a show of leadership.

by Oui on Sun Oct 18th, 2020 at 04:39:18 PM EST
Your comment would find a better place in the Newsroom, along with eurogreen's, who has, by the way, a slightly different opinion than yours Re: Ardern and "Green Socialist Revolution".
by Bernard on Sun Oct 18th, 2020 at 06:58:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump's Ultimate Disgrace Dying Days in the ARMS of White Supremacists and Right-wing Militia 😡

Whitmer says Trump continues to encourage 'domestic terrorism' with rhetoric

by Oui on Sun Oct 18th, 2020 at 07:30:17 PM EST
Ditching The Donald: Trump's largest voter base is fleeing at an alarming rate

...Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows a dramatic drop in support for the president "among white male voters without college degrees .... from an enormous 35 points to a significant but narrowing 19 points.

I make that out to a VERY rough guesstimate of 10 million votes lost.

The GOP can survive a loss of that size if they go ahead and vote R in down ticket races. IF they don't vote at all then the R candidates are little toasty critters. IF they vote D then the GOP will be effectively destroyed as a national political party.

With this kind of news I'm wondering if Donnie is going to get something like 50 to 55 million total votes.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Oct 18th, 2020 at 09:27:46 PM EST
MEMORABLE under-40s QUOTE
"I was drinking the Kool-Aid so much that I named my dog Reagan," Chapman elaborated. "My reaction to Trump's version of masculinity is just realizing how fragile he must be," with Stevens chiming in, "Trump's handling of Covid right now, to a T, describes me two years ago. I had an issue for six years that I refused to go the doctor for, and it was almost fatal, because 'I was too tough for that.'"

n=1,000 registered voters; N = 555 interviews in swing states
NBC/WSJ Study 200870, Oct 9-12
"positivity" productivity spectrum

null census 2018 voter tabulation
by Cat on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 02:58:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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