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The Covid-19 Patterns are changing

by Frank Schnittger Thu Mar 26th, 2020 at 10:49:27 PM EST

The table above is continuously updated here and by John Hopkins University here.

The pandemic patterns are changing, with the highest number of confirmed Covid-19 cases now in the USA, despite a lack of a timely and comprehensive testing regime. Italy and Spain are still leading the mortality column with France also moving up the table. On a per capita basis, Luxembourg and Switzerland actually have a higher confirmed infection rate per million inhabitants and there is some hope that the rate of new infections is actually beginning to slow down in Italy where new infections have increased by less than 10% per day for the past four days in a row.

As testing technologies improve we may soon get a better handle on the real infection rates in various countries and thus the likely future mortality rates.
President Trump seems to be creating a huge hostage to fortune by talking about re-opening the US economy just as the confirmed case numbers (and future deaths) are increasing exponentially in the USA (see table above). The UK has finally also instituted draconian measures, but it remains to be seen whether the delay in doing so has allowed the numbers to expand beyond the capacity of the NHS to cope.

Ireland's mortality rate has doubled in a single day and new cases are still setting a record each day, but the rate of expansion is more quadratic than exponential and the hope is that the predicted expansion to 15,000 cases by the end of March will instead only reach 4 or 5 thousand by that stage. The peak still seems some weeks off, however, and we still have not seen the full impact of the social distancing rules and closure of all schools and non-essential businesses on the infection rate. No one doubts that the surge is coming, but so far the health system has been able to re-prioritise and expand to meet projected demand for some time yet.

10 more deaths and 255 new cases confirmed in the Republic

There have now been a total of 1,819 cases of coronavirus in the Republic, and 19 deaths.

The average age of those who died is 79, NPHET said. Some 68 per cent were male and 32 per cent were female.

Community transmission now accounts for a majority of cases (51 per cent) of all cases of coronavirus, according to the latest analysis of cases.

Close contact with confirmed cases accounts for 22 per cent of cases, and travel abroad for 27 per cent.

One-third of people are concerned about their personal health, and 77 per cent are concerned about the health of their family and friends, according to research conducted for the Department of Health.

The research also points to a high level of compliance among the public with the restrictive measures introduced in recent weeks, with 66 per cent saying they are coughing into their elbow and 81 per cent exercising physical distancing when in a queue.

Some 65 per cent of people are worried about the economy, and 32 per cent are worried about their employment status.

Chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said Ireland was "only at the beginning of the curve" and needed every citizen to heed the advice and measures put in place.

He expressed concern about clusters of cases in a number of healthcare settings such as hospitals and long stay settings such as nursing homes.

The HSE is now working to identify any contacts the patients may have had to provide them with information and advice to prevent further spread.

A breakdown of data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, of the cases diagnosed as of midnight on Tuesday (1,383 cases) reveals the median age of confirmed cases is 46 years and 340 cases (25 per cent) have been hospitalised.

Of those hospitalised, 47 cases have been admitted to ICU.

Overall, some 321 cases (23 per cent) are associated with healthcare workers.

Dublin has the highest number of cases at 774, (56 per cent of all cases) followed by Cork with 154 cases (11 per cent).

Further data can be found Here.

No 10 claims it missed deadline for EU ventilator scheme
Downing Street has claimed it failed to take part in an EU scheme to source life-saving ventilators to treat coronavirus because it accidentally missed the deadline.

No 10 initially said it did not take part because the UK was "no longer a member" and was "making our own efforts".

But after critics accused Boris Johnson of putting "Brexit over breathing", a No 10 spokesman clarified that it had missed out because of an error and would consider participating in future. It is understood the UK claims not to have received an email from the EU asking it to participate.

The mix-up means the UK has missed out on benefiting from the collective buying power of the EU. The bloc is seeking to use its clout to source large numbers of ventilators and protective equipment.


The UK has chosen to source ventilators from British manufacturers who have never made the products before. Dyson, the household appliance firm, said it had received an order for 10,000 machines.

Asked why the UK was not taking part in the EU scheme, the prime minister's official spokesman had earlier said: "We are no longer members of the EU." He stressed that the UK was "making our own efforts" in this area.

When asked whether it would be hard for people to understand this decision, particularly in light of the fact Johnson has called for international cooperation in the fight against coronavirus, the spokesman said: "I'm not sure that it is."

Ministers have acknowledged the UK needs thousands more ventilators to prepare for the peak of the pandemic, adding to the 8,000 the NHS already has. No 10 said on Thursday that thousands of additional ventilators had been ordered but it could not put a timescale on their arrival.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Mar 26th, 2020 at 11:43:32 PM EST
This was directly contradicted by Matt Hancock the week before, when he said the UK would be participating in the scheme. And also by Johnson a couple of weeks ago when he said that the UK would be doing everything possible to procure ventilators - in what he colourfully ad libbed as "Operation Last Gasp", on live TV.

Now it turns out this means ignoring existing sources in the UK and EU, and handing a plum contract for ventilators - which haven't been designed yet, never mind assembled and shipped - to arch Brexiter, Tory donor, tax avoider, and builder of brightly coloured domestic cleaning equipment, James Dyson.

Trust in Johnson and co is so low there's a serious debate about whether the top team are faking infection purely for political sympathy. The question isn't even whether or not this is true, but whether or not it's believable. Unfortunately it is.

Meanwhile the UK's more authoritarian elements have been all over social media trying to persuade everyone to pull together and get behind the herd alpha. Apparently comments about hubris and nemesis are unacceptably tone deaf in the circumstances - which is in poor taste itself, considering the number of people who are going to die unnecessarily. And also considering the state of the NHS after ten years of covert privatisation and other political abuse.

About the latter - the editor of The Lancet is not impressed: "COVID-19 and the NHS - a National Scandal."

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Mar 28th, 2020 at 12:53:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow - your linked article is devastating - like sending NHS staff into a battle with sabres drawn against machine gun fire...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 28th, 2020 at 11:04:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spain has just overtaken Italy in the "new deaths on a single day" column.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Mar 26th, 2020 at 11:56:48 PM EST
One of the few TV programs willing to do investigative journalism is the Labour party's leftwing VARA Zembla ...

Hiding the corona bodies in Southern province of Brabant where the CoV-2 infections have overwhelmed the hospitals.

GPs: Patients who have died with clear symptoms of coronavirus can not be reported to RIVM and are missing in the official count


A serious matter

General practitioner Angela van Uden from Sint-Oedenrode: "I think it's a crazy state of affairs. As general practitioners, we also see people who are deathly ill in the home situation. Not everyone ends up in the hospital. If these people die at home, they are not counted if they have not been tested. I think that's a bad thing. Precisely because RIVM said yesterday that the situation appears to be stabilizing. They base this on mortality rates and hospital admissions, among other things. But we general practitioners see and treat people who do not appear in these figures. I am afraid that people will ignore the strict measures, and think: it is not so bad. But it is not easy. "

A spokesperson for RIVM confirms that the death rate is based only on confirmed cases of COVID-19. Suspicions of corona are not included in this, because then the figures would give a distorted picture. After all, someone can also have died of "ordinary" influenza: flu.


by Oui on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 12:00:09 AM EST
There is nothing to prevent the Dutch authorities doing a post mortem corona virus test to determine the cause of death if they really wanted to find out what the true Covid-19 mortality rate is and do contact tracing to identify possible avenues for further infections...

The dead don't contribute to herd immunity...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 12:24:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Covid-19: Pangolins found to carry diseases linked to contagion
Coronaviruses detected in a small number of pangolins smuggled into China were shown to be closely related to Covid-19, according to research published on Thursday.

The degree of similarity is insufficient to suggest pangolins are the intermediate hosts directly involved in the current Covid-19 outbreak - bats are believed to be the original source of the virus.

The findings published in the scientific journal Nature, however, suggest the animals are "a second mammalian host of coronaviruses and that their sale in wildlife markets should be strictly prohibited to minimise the risk of future virus transmission to humans".

"Although evidence that bats may be the likely [initial] reservoir for Sars-CoV-2 (the medical term for the virus) the identity of intermediate host animals that could have facilitated the transfer of this virus into humans remains unknown," stress the authors.

One possible host is pangolins, which are the most-commonly illegally trafficked mammal and are used as food and in traditional medicine.

In December the "wet market" in Wuhan linked to early cases of the recent outbreak of respiratory disease was cleared out shortly after the outbreak began, which has impeded the search for the animal species that is the source of coronavirus, they note.

Meat, poultry, and seafood are sold at wet markets alongside live animals for consumption - a subsequent study concluded the outbreak occurred elsewhere but the market boosted its circulation and spread it to the whole city.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 12:20:16 AM EST
Men are much more likely to die from coronavirus - but why?
The trend was first seen in China, where one analysis found a fatality rate of 2.8% in men compared with 1.7% in women.

Since then, the pattern has been mirrored in France, Germany, Iran, Italy, South Korea and Spain.

In Italy, men have accounted for 71% of deaths and, in Spain, data released on Thursday suggests twice as many men as women have died.

So why are men more vulnerable?

"The honest answer is none of us know what's causing the difference," said Prof Sarah Hawkes, director of the UCL Centre for Gender and Global Health.

Early on, smoking was suggested as a likely explanation. In China, nearly 50% of men but only about 2% of women smoke, and so underlying differences in lung health were assumed to contribute to men suffering worse symptoms and outcomes.

The smoking hypothesis was backed by a paper, published last month, that found smokers made up about 12% of those with less severe symptoms, but 26% of those who ended up in intensive care or died.

Smoking might also act as an avenue for getting infected in the first place: smokers touch their lips more and may share contaminated cigarettes.

Behavioural factors that differ across genders may also have a role. Some studies have shown that men are less likely to wash their hands, less likely to use soap, less likely to seek medical care and more likely to ignore public health advice. These are sweeping generalisations, but across a population could place men at greater risk.


Previous research, including by Klein, has revealed that men have lower innate antiviral immune responses to a range of infections including hepatitis C and HIV. Studies in mice suggest that this may also be true for coronaviruses, though Covid-19 specifically has not been studied.

"Their immune system may not initiate an appropriate response when it initially sees the virus," Klein said.

Hormones can also play a role - oestrogen has been shown to increase antiviral responses of immune cells. And many genes that regulate the immune system are encoded on the X chromosome (of which men have one, and women have two) and so it is possible that some genes involved in the immune response are more active in women than in men.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 01:04:33 AM EST
by Cat on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 01:22:05 AM EST
Florida, home to millions of elderly residents, doesn't have enough coronavirus tests. Could it be the next epicenter?
"We cannot rely on the government," Michel said. "I had no obligation to put a lien on my house to get this done, but this is an unprecedented event, it's affecting the entire world, and we can't just expect the government to magically solve it."
by Cat on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 04:09:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 05:12:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

of course, anecdotes are not data

by Cat on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 05:13:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Fed balance sheet tops $5 trillion for first time [THIS WEEK] as it enters coronavirus WAR MODE
"roughly twice the pace of the next-largest weekly expansion in the financial crisis in October 2008."
by Cat on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 05:24:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"15-day Slow the Spread Initiative" fini

by Cat on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 05:40:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 05:53:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"15 Day Slow the Spread Initiative" w/e 21 March
by Cat on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 03:36:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

silent generation SPEAKS OUT!
by Cat on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 03:55:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 11:10:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

magical rounded number
The test kits are winning.
by Cat on Sat Mar 28th, 2020 at 12:23:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Test kit. So simple a cave man can do it.
by Cat on Sat Mar 28th, 2020 at 10:25:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The BBC is reporting that the British prime minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for coronavirus and is exhibiting "mild symptoms".

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 11:32:14 AM EST
Sacrifices have to be made for the UK to reach herd immunity.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 03:47:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 04:47:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The fella who claimed he was "shaking hands with everybody"?
How surprising...
by Bernard on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 09:12:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 02:13:02 PM EST
Wetherspoon's panto-villain chairman may have the last laugh
Martin's litany of faux-pas began last week as the UK government was dithering over shutting down its pubs to fight the virus. Completely misreading the shifting mood of the British public, he argued it was "over the top" to temporarily shut his stock market-listed business to fight a disease that kills old folks.

Then he completely flamed out, blurting with fact-free abandon on television that there was "hardly any transmission of the virus within pubs". It made him appear clueless, mercenary and cold.

The British duly shut their pubs last Friday. Days later, a clearly unabashed Martin recorded a video message for his 43,000 mostly low-paid staff, who suddenly had no jobs to go to. Instead of metaphorically putting his arm around his frightened workers and reassuring them that the sun would soon rise again, he used the opportunity to cement his villain status.

The UK's state scheme to cover 80 per cent of the wages of laid-off workers may not be operational until the end of April, leaving a gap of up to five weeks for many. Some employers have pledged to cover wages in the interim. But what did Martin do? He told his staff to go find jobs in Tesco if they couldn't wait.

What a guy. The company also nixed the staff's bonuses.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 05:01:09 PM EST
Healthcare worker in Republic dies after contracting virus
Three more deaths and 302 new cases confirmed in the State on Friday
A healthcare worker has died after contracting coronavirus in the Republic.

The Irish Times has learned that the nurse worked in the east of the country and their death marks the first of a healthcare worker in the State during the Covid-19 pandemic.

On Friday it was confirmed another three people had died of coronavirus in the the State, bringing the total number of deaths to 22.

In relation to the three latest deaths one person died in the north-west of the country and two females died in the east.

The number of new confirmed cases of the disease surged to 302 on Friday, the highest daily total recorded so far.

There are now 2,121 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the State, the Health Protection Surveillance Centre said in a statement.

Up to last Wednesday, 419 patients had been hospitalised with the disease, it said, and 59 of these had been admitted to ICU.

Some 23 per cent of cases are associated with healthcare workers.

The median age of confirmed cases is 46 years, and the cases break down 54 per/46 per cent between men and women.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 08:34:33 PM EST
About under-counting COVID19 deaths, it's not only in NL or France; some data from EU ground zero, the region of Bergamo, near Milan:

«The real death toll for Covid-19 is at least 4 times the official numbers» - Corriere della Sera

Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic.

by Bernard on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 at 08:53:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Think 0.2% CFR. The math, bro.
by Cat on Sat Mar 28th, 2020 at 12:31:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I saw this one coming ... first you have the media and your "experts" inflate the numbers, then you use this false or incomplete news to get the public on your side ...

"Between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths and we'll be doing a good job."

In between the lines he talks about the "herd immunity" option of UK PM Boris Johnson and Dutch fan Mark Rutte ... "ride it out like a cowboy".


Trump says keeping US Covid-19 deaths to 100,000 would be a `very good job' | The Guardian |

Speaking in the White House Rose Garden, the US president claimed that, if his administration keeps the death toll to 100,000, it will have done "a very good job" - a startling shift from his optimistic predictions of a few days ago when he said he hoped to restart the economy by Easter.

Trump also undermined his plea for unity by uttering falsehoods, verbally abusing reporters and making incendiary allegations that implied health care workers were stealing masks, without providing evidence.

Caught Between Herd Immunity And National Lockdown, Holland Hit Hard By Covid-19 | Forbes |
Outbreak -- Herd Immunity Is Damning!

The most modern nations EVER! European Union, Great Britain and the United States all failed the people.

Overview of the Numbers:

Psychology: Inflating Number Expected Deaths

by Oui on Mon Mar 30th, 2020 at 07:49:25 AM EST

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