Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

The chickens come home to roost

by Frank Schnittger Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 04:15:52 PM EST

Today the UK has joined Italy, Spain, the USA and France in surpassing the total of Chinese deaths despite having had a couple more months to prepare and learn from the Chinese experience of dealing with what had been a new and unprecedented corona virus disease. European governments were slow to identify and react to the gravity of the threat while Trump dismissed the pandemic as nothing more than a Democratic party hoax and the deputy Chief Medical Officer for England dismissed WHO advice on dealing with the pandemic as being appropriate only for low and medium income countries.

It is entirely inappropriate to engage in any kind of Schadenfreude while innocent people are dying in the Covid-19 pandemic, but it is difficult to avoid pointing out that political choices can have very severe consequences. This is not a time for political or nationalist point scoring but lessons have to be learned from the mistakes of the past particularly when some of these mistakes are still being implemented today. In particular, the mistakes still being made in Britain and N. Ireland have serious implications for Ireland as I pointed out in the letter to the Editor below.

Although written in response to an Irish Times article, I doubted whether the Irish Times would published it. They prefer trivial stuff. It wasn't, so I sent a slightly amended version to the Irish Independent who published it as their featured letter. It's behind a paywall, but here is the Press Reader version:

The Irish Independent also published a previous letter of mine on Trumps performance in the crisis:

The Irony is that both Trump and Johnson are enjoying record approval ratings right now, if the polls are to be believed. It will be interesting to see how their popularity will fare as the magnitude of their mistakes becomes clear. US and British exceptionalism may play well with their respective electorates, but has proved of little use against Covid-19.

Ranked by deaths per 1 million inhabitants, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Switzerland have also been moving up the grisly league table. Sweden's relatively relaxed approach to dealing with the crisis doesn't seem to be working too well either. There is some hope that the new deaths curve in Europe may be flattening slightly, with deaths in Italy and Spain off their all time highs in recent days.

Of course there are many factors which can influence these numbers. Many countries are not counting many deaths probably caused by Covid-19 if thy haven't actually tested the patient or performed a post mortem to confirm this. Others are only testing on hospital admissions and omitting deaths in nursing homes or the wider community.

In Italy the death toll is significantly greater because the outbreak is concentrated in particular areas and the health service has been completely overwhelmed leading to many otherwise avoidable deaths amongst Covid and non Covid patients alike.

Countries with an older age profile are always likely to suffer more deaths. Germany's death toll was significantly lower because the initial infections were mostly in fit younger people returning from ski resorts in Austria and Italy. Their death rate has been trending higher as the pandemic spread to older age groups.

In Ireland the median age for fatalities has been 81 and (for reasons as yet unknown) the male/female ratio has been more than 2:1. The trend is still rising, but with some "flattening" appearing possible at this stage: The precise level of new cases diagnosed per day may be influenced by bottlenecks in testing and analysis caused by shortages of testing kits and reagent:

New positive test results per day

The number of deaths per day has also fluctuated widely, but may also be showing signs of "flattening", although epidemiologists are still expecting a "surge" in cases this month which may overwhelm limited intensive care facilities leading to a further spike in deaths.

New deaths per day.

At least there is now some hope that radical non-pharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing, school and non-essential business closures are beginning to have some effect, particularly in countries which implemented these measures earlier.

Numbers, numbers ... real persons, loved ones ... the economy people, the elderly are sacrificed. The Dutch Government with Mark Rutte don't do testing and don't count ... think Iraq and Syria. The same old as rightwing, conservative "leadership'.

Following the same policy ... insufficient testing ... let the virus spread for herd immunity ... don't count the deaths as not all persons die in the hospital. Eighty per cent die in nursing homes or at home. Of course, in the weekly stats will alert by significant discrepancies: in week 12, March 16 thru 22, there are 440 more deaths than can be explained by seasonal average and the trending curve. This is 157% underreporting of the real numbers ... worse to come. The Dutch government organization RIVM has attributed fewer deaths to the coronavirus outbreak that will show in the official WHO statistics.

CBS suspects higher corona death than previously reported | Dagblad v/h Noorden - ANP |

The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) detects 440 more deaths than average in the third week of March. The researchers think that this difference can largely be explained by the coronavirus outbreak. They report a deviation from the mortality rates of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), which had 280 deaths from the coronavirus in that week. Statistics Netherlands suspects that there is a difference because not everyone who dies from the coronavirus is registered in this way.

According to the CBS, 3,575 people died in week 12, which is considerably higher than the average death rate of 3,135 in the previous weeks.

CBS Stats: Deceased; gender and age, per week


This afternoon the numbers of the last week of March were quite shocking ...

CBS: 1200 number of deaths missed in the last week of March

Rutte & Co: "Wij testen niet en tellen de slachtoffers COVID-19 niet !!"

Dutch Authorities: Don't Count the Dead
Pinocchio Award: Mark Rutte Challenging Trump!!

Really shameful ... wilful neglect with a rightwing agenda! Planned eugenics or simple human sacrifice.

Rutte & Co ... just like BoJo and Trump ...

Posted earlier in my recent diary - Biggest Threat to Democracy Is Disinformation.

by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 05:56:03 PM EST
Dutch official corona death toll hits 1,487, but real total is higher | Dutch News |

The number of patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus has risen by 502 to 6,286 in the latest update from the public health institute RIVM.

In total, 148 more people have died, taking the death toll to 1,487, while 15,723 people have tested positive for the virus, a rise of over 1,000 on Thursday.

Figures published by the national statistics office CBS on Friday indicate that coronavirus is having a significant impact on the wider weekly death figures which the two agencies have compiled since the 2009 flu epidemic.

Figures relating to the period 19-25 March indicate that between 870 and 1181 more people died than would have been expected, the RIVM said. At this time of year, some 2,700 to 3,000 people die every week.

by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 05:57:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pete Hoekstra the bullsh***er Ambassador of the US  in The Hague ... a stone's throw away from my home 😖

U.S. Ambassador lashes out at China over coronavirus transparency | NL Times |

American ambassador to the Netherlands Pete Hoekstra lashed out at China and the information it provided about the coronavirus in an interview with Dutch newspaper AD. According to Hoekstra, China did not give the world reliable data about Covid-19 and is still not being transparent about the actual number of coronavirus infections and deaths in the country.

"The world could have responded to this much more efficiently if China had been more transparent. Even now we don't see the transparency we would like to see. When we see how the disease develops in Europe and in the US, the trend is somewhat different from what we hear from China," Hoekstra said to the newspaper.

The Return of Pete Hoekstra to Holland

In sudden shift, US and China seek to cooperate as coronavirus pandemic rages on | Straits Times |

by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 05:59:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 06:14:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 06:15:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 06:17:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Liberals": can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em, possibly.

by Cat on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 06:24:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So true ... the underlying principle never went away .. delay, delay on testing and front line protection for our doctors and nurses!

by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 09:47:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 09:50:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is far too late for containment in the UK.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 03:06:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Welcome back Don! Sent you an email a while back...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 12:35:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
AT&T trashed my e-mail - again. Haven't spent the requisite 2 hrs getting bounced from Texas to India to get it working again. It is just a simple password issue. I follow the instructions but get put in a loop. The ap says I succeeded in changing my password, but it never allows me to log in.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 04:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Microsoft and Google do that to me when I want to access both my email accounts through their clients. One won't give the other access claiming wrong password.  Anyway, great to see you back!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 04:12:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Same for me with Wordpress!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 11:40:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank, the most reliable way to communicate with me besides on ET would be through FB Messenger.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 04:41:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 09:54:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In real numbers ...

Because of the "herd" policy wonkers in The Hague, the numbers are highly deflated.

My own best estimate for today:
Cases: 100k
Deaths: 3k
Deaths/1M pop.: 144

Numbers similar to New York at this date.

The UK and more so the US will soar above the poor statistics of the Netherlands. UK on target for 20k and the US for 100k deaths. Final numbers above these will conclude horrible performance.

by Oui on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 10:29:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Coronavirus in the US: Latest COVID-19 news and case counts | Live Science |

The U.S. became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic after reported cases surpassed those officially reported by China. Since the novel coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in the U.S. on Jan. 20, it has spread to at least 245,601 people in the U.S., across all 50 states.

Of the reported cases in the U.S., 6,058 people have died from the virus, with at least 2,538 of those deaths in New York, 537 in New Jersey, 417 in Michigan, 310 in Louisiana and 272 related deaths reported in Washington state. The globe has hit its own milestone: 1 million COVID-19 cases have been confirmed worldwide as of Thursday afternoon (April 2), according to the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard. To date, 54,137 deaths globally are attributed to the virus.

by Oui on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 10:33:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 08:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 10:22:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Coronavirus: Boris Johnson moved to intensive care as symptoms 'worsen'
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care in hospital after his coronavirus symptoms "worsened", Downing Street has said.

A spokesman said he was moved on the advice of his medical team and is receiving "excellent care".

Mr Johnson has asked Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab to deputise "where necessary", the spokesman added.

The prime minister, 55, was admitted to hospital in London with "persistent symptoms" on Sunday evening

by Bernard on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 08:36:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Famous passage in Winston Churchill's excellent book The Second World War where he refers to the impending fall of Singapore:

"It was necessary above all to warn the House and the country of the misfortunes which impended upon us. There is no worse mistake in public leadership than to hold out false hopes soon to be swept away. The British people can face peril or misfortune with fortitude and buoyancy, but they bitterly resent being deceived or finding that those responsible for their affairs are themselves living in a fool's paradise."

by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 06:43:22 PM EST
by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 07:18:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guess what ... Hollywood's Apprentice acting as U.S. President 😖

Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression: From the Roaring Twenties and the Crash of 1929

by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 07:01:44 PM EST
by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 07:23:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 07:10:02 PM EST
by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 07:20:59 PM EST
Also experienced by French regions trying to supply masks from China:

Face masks from China intended for France 'hijacked' by US at the last minute - RFI

Coronavirus masks that France ordered from China were bought at the last minute by the United States as they waited to be loaded onto cargo planes, French officials have said.

"Americans pay three or four times the amount we pay, and in cash," said Jean Rottner, head of France's eastern region, one of the areas worst affected by the coronavirus outbreak, according to reports by France Info.

On Thursday, a planeload of Chinese-made face masks were bought up right on the tarmac just as the much needed protective gear was about to set off for France.

"We're working around the clock to ensure these masks arrive," says Rottner, blaming unfair competition for delays.

The United States, which now has the highest number of known cases of coronavirus in the world, is trying to procure any masks available, disrupting deliveries to other nations, another report by French daily Liberation indicated.

by Bernard on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 08:04:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Berlin accuses US of `piracy' over face masks
The United States was accused of "modern piracy" after around 200,000 face masks bound for Germany were diverted to the U.S., according to German media reports.

According to Tagesspiegel, the masks were made in China and were supposed to be flown to Germany from Thailand, but instead were sent directly to the U.S.

The interior minister of Berlin's regional government, Andreas Geisel, said the masks were "confiscated" at Bangkok airport.

"We consider this an act of modern piracy," he said.

Berlin's mayor Michael Müller also weighed in on Friday, taking aim at U.S. President Donald Trump.

"The action of the U.S. president is anything but one of solidarity or responsibility. It is inhuman and unacceptable. The federal government must insist to the U.S. that international rules are respected, including in times of the corona pandemic," tweeted Müller, a member of the center-left Social Democrats.

US cast as culprit in global scrum over coronavirus supplies

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration stands accused of effectively hijacking shipments of masks and additional crucial supplies meant for other countries, including U.S. allies, and strong-arming private firms to prioritize America over other parts of the world. On Friday, Trump announced he was invoking the Defense Production Act to restrict U.S. exports of key medical gear.
by Bernard on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 02:42:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The French figures in the RealClear table do include deaths in nursing homes in addition to hospitals: the health authorities had promised to add them to the daily status by the end of the week and the figures keep coming in (only 2/3 of nursing homes figures compiled thus far).

As of tonight, April 3:

  • 5091 deaths in the hospitals due to Covid-19, a increase of 588 since yesterday, the worst one day increase since the outbreak.

  • 1416 deaths in nursing homes, but figures still coming in.
  • A total of 6507 persons dead since the outbreak some six weeks ago.

I understand that figures for NL and UK only cover the people deaths in hospitals; probably the same for IT and ES.
by Bernard on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 08:17:37 PM EST
Real Clear Politics now agrees with your figure of 6507 deaths in France up to now.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 08:22:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Official Coronavirus Figures Don't Reveal The True Scale of the Pandemic
At a news conference every evening, Jérôme Salomon, France's director general of health, solemnly delivers an update on the state of the coronavirus epidemic in the country -- just as public health officials around the world have been doing every day for weeks.

With each new tally of deaths and infections, news organizations and public health institutions like Johns Hopkins University in Maryland update their maps and charts depicting the pandemic's severity and spread. The latest figures show that more than 13,000 people have died in Italy, the epicenter of the outbreak in Europe, followed by Spain and France. In the United States, the coronavirus has now killed more people than the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Last week, however, Salomon's terminology changed slightly. Rather than simply relaying the total number of deaths in France, as he had been doing, he specified that the daily tally reflected only deaths that had been recorded in hospitals.

The official figures "represent only a small part of deaths" in France, Salomon admitted. He acknowledged that "the two main places of death are the hospital and nursing homes." A system for tallying deaths in nursing homes is planned for the coming days, but it is not yet operational.

Well, we now have some numbers for nursing homes deaths in France: 1416 as of yesterday, but a significant number of homes haven't been tallied yet.
by Bernard on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 05:48:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Suspected coronavirus outbreak at Glasgow care home after 13 die | The Guardian |

Two staff members at the Burlington Court care home, where all victim's lived, are being treated in separate hospitals after testing positive for Covid-19.

The residents all had underlying health conditions and it is not yet confirmed whether they had died from the disease as tests are carried out upon hospital admission only.

A spokeswoman for Four Seasons Health Care, which runs Burlington Court, said it had "strict protocols on infectious diseases" and that it was closely monitoring the health of the other residents and colleagues.

Nursing homes overwhelmed by coronavirus: 'It is impossible for us to stop the spread' | NBC News |

by Oui on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 06:36:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 07:32:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 07:47:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
French numbers as of tonight, April 4:

  • 5532 deaths in hospitals, an increase of 441 in the past 24 hours.
  • Figures for nursing home deaths now come at 2028 deaths; the count may still not be complete (1416 were accounted for yesterday).
  • 6838 patients in intensive care nation wide, "a record", concentrated in the Northeast, North and Paris regions. Additional ICU beds have been set up in the past month: total capacity is about 10000; the government wants to increase up to 14000.
  • Hundreds ICU patients have been transferred from overloaded regions to the Southwest (like Bordeaux) or Brittany (Rennes, Brest), where the number of cases is much less than the rest of the country, and also to neighboring Germany, Switzerland and Luxembourg. Depending on the distance, patients transfers were done by ambulance, military airplane, helicopter and even high-speed train ("anything that drives, anything that flies", according to an official).
by Bernard on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 08:14:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And today's figures for the UK:

The number of deaths in UK hospitals saw a record daily rise, increasing by 708 from 3,605 to 4,313 - a rise of 20%. Among the dead was a five-year-old child, thought to be the UK's youngest victim so far, who had underlying health conditions.

At this rate, the UK total deaths will soon be higher than in France (both countries have about the same population), and become the third largest affected country in Europe, behind Italy and Spain. Johnson's insouciant attitude of the past weeks is having real - and tragic - consequences.

by Bernard on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 08:36:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For several days in a row, the number of COVID-19 deaths in hospitals per day is decreasing in Italy (525 in the last 24 hours), in Spain (674) and in France (357).

Also in France: 2189 deaths in nursing homes since March 1st.

I understand that in other European countries, the number of daily deaths is still increasing (it seems to be stabilizing in Belgium and Switzerland).

by Bernard on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 06:35:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 06:55:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Ireland the numbers today are 390 new cases and 21 deaths. Both possibly representing a slight flattening or stabilisation of previous trend.

The deaths are particularly high because 40 clusters have been identified in nursing homes for the elderly many of whom would also have underlying conditions and the median age of deaths to date is 80+. Bad as these figures are, there is at least some prospect that those outbreaks can be more easily contained within the confines of the nursing some patients and staff.

Leo Varadker has re-registered as a Doctor and will be putting in a shift a week as a symbolic contribution to the "war effort". Over 50,000 retired or former health care workers have volunteered their services.

If I get the bug and he is the GP ringing back to assess my condition, I will have a few things to say to him!

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 07:38:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I hope this doesn't give Ben Carson or Bashar al-Assad ideas....
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 08:29:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bashar al-Assad experience of chemical warfare may come in useful against Covid-19...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 09:50:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 08:58:17 PM EST
USS Theodore Roosevelt -- Capt. Brett Crozier

by Oui on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 05:57:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a story behind a paywall that the Assistant SecNav has gone to the Teddy Roosevelt and tongue lashed the crew for cheering.
by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 02:00:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One can only hope the rank-and-file finally figure out from this how much the Cheeto in Chief and his minions really have their backs.
by rifek on Wed Apr 8th, 2020 at 03:08:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Navy in crisis: Top leader's resignation roils service in the middle of a pandemic
An aircraft carrier sidelined by a coronavirus outbreak. A promising captain fired for requesting help as infections spread among his 5,000 sailors. And a service leaderless once more, after the acting Navy secretary resigned Tuesday following an uproar over a profanity-laced address to the ship's crew.

The Navy has weathered its share of crises, and in the past few months saw the previous Navy secretary forced out over his handling of a war crimes case, and the man selected to be its top admiral instead retire due to an improper professional relationship with a former staffer who was accused of making unwanted sexual advances to several women.

Yet the resignation of acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly leaves the service lurching in the middle of a devastating pandemic that has roiled global markets, upended everyday life and left tens of thousands dead around the world.

It also projects the wrong image to America's enemies and allies, as a cascading series of leadership changes calls into question the stability of America's sea service.

"There is never a good time for a crisis in leadership, but having it in the middle of a pandemic is a particularly awful time," said Ray Mabus, who served as Navy secretary under former President Barack Obama.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 8th, 2020 at 04:44:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The most important part of that is:

sends the wrong message

People dying is "Who Cares?" but



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Apr 8th, 2020 at 11:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 02:01:35 PM EST
IHS Markit European GDP Nowcasts: European PMIs signal unprecedented drops in output during first quarter

by Oui on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 04:12:45 PM EST
are not going to be pretty...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 04:20:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because the Washington Consensus has become a Death Cult.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 02:41:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
".. has become .." ??

Continous with the death cult ... recall "Skull and Bones" and a few others ... best opportunity to reshape society out of chaos.

It needs a leader to win this year's election in the same manner Herbert Hoover lost. Now depends we'll win or not ... Trump will become the fascist dictator ... a Mussolini or Franco ... fascist axis Austria, Hungary, Italy and Spain. 😟  Hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic ... in the 1930s corporate USA gave support to the German Nazi regime ... history will unfold in an unpredictable way ... will social media and the Vox Populis be a force of good or evil ... the signs of 1984!  😡

by Oui on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 03:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1984 was 40 years too early. 2024?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 03:36:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 10:58:20 PM EST
Interesting article on why Veneto (5.6%, 607 deaths) has a far lower case mortality rate than neighbouring Lombardy (17.6%, 8656 deaths).

The main factors:

  1. Much higher rate of testing and contact tracing - almost double Lombardy's.
  2. Much lower hospitalisation rates (Veneto 20% hospitalisation, Lombardy 65%), most patients told to stay home or treated in local clinics. Hospitals are the main vectors of transmission.
  3. Greater experience and expertise in infectious diseases.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 11:04:42 PM EST
Fascinating observation going around comparing infection and death rates in comparable countries... in function of the BCG vaccination regime.

Coincidentally or not, eastern Europe is more "resistant" than the ... liberal... west...

Compare Portugal to Spain, Croatia to Italy... eastern to western Germany...

Public health : an idea whose time is coming (back)?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 02:01:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Belfast Telegraph, traditionally a unionist paper, has published a slightly edited version of my letter to the Editor today. Now I'm in big trouble! I attach the press reader image below because for some strange reason they don't publish their letters page online. They also didn't publish my home address - using my title as an editor of the European Tribune instead - they must have checked my home page link on my address line. Hope you guys don't mind being dragged into the mire of N. Ireland politics!

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 01:41:03 PM EST
Not at all ... just wondering how many readers find it that interesting to react. Recall June 2005 @BoomanTribune 😄 in addition moments with topics hitting a nerve. I recall a nice article on I-P issue translated by Sirocco.
by Oui on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 02:34:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Before my time, I'm afraid!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 02:46:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Speaking for myself, I couldn't be more delighted to be dragged into the bogside mire!

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 04:12:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 04:18:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And now the establishment fights back.

Private consultants want to be able to continue to see and charge their private patients during the crisis even as the government takes over the cost of running their private hospitals...

I have commented on the article as follows:

The problem with a two tier medical system is that those working in both have a vested interest in ensuring the public system is as inefficient as possible, the better to have long waiting lists forcing people to go the private route. Private medicine in Ireland is basically a system of organised bribery which allows people to bypass the public queues.

Private medicine practitioners also have a vested interest to maximise their income by recommending tests and procedures that are not actually necessary - something which is routine practice in the USA- doctors are under pressure to fill private hospital beds to the hospitals can make money, and are routinely given favours by big pharma to prescribe their products.

I have family with experience of working in both the US and Irish healthcare systems and they have always advised me to go public if there is something seriously wrong with me.

The government has offered to pay private hospital costs which would include private consulting rooms, support staff, insurance etc. If a private patient requires urgent attention they can still get it in their private hospital via the public route - their consultant just won't be able to charge them for it - which is the nub of their problem.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 04:34:03 PM EST
Remember that post by Thomas Pueyo that we discussed about three weeks ago?

It contained a lot of statistics and attempts to model the further spread of the pandemics, while strongly advocating confinement (and doing it early) to flatten the curve.

There was a follow-up, about a week after, where he keeps developing a mitigation strategy called "Hammer and Dance":

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

If you hammer the coronavirus, within a few weeks you've controlled it and you're in much better shape to address it. Now comes the longer-term effort to keep this virus contained until there's a vaccine.

This is probably the single biggest, most important mistake people make when thinking about this stage: they think it will keep them home for months. This is not the case at all. In fact, it is likely that our lives will go back to close to normal.

The "Dance" part of it is a modular set of social distancing measures that could be strengthened or loosened, whose goal is to keep the virus transmission rate under 1.

Also, last week, a post specifically about the USA.

The virus has mainly affected Dem states, because large urban areas tend to be blue. But it's soon going to hit the red states. Hard. R governors are more reluctant than D governors to implement lockdowns that are the only known mechanism today to slow the spread.

And the virus is 30% more likely to kill a R voter than a D voter, solely based on age.

by Bernard on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 06:47:01 PM EST
TCovid-19 will be called the Democrats Disease because it will differentially kill off the elderly and freedom loving, social distance scorning, rule ridiculing, gun toting, religious nuts who, like Trump, think its sissy to take precautions or wear a mask.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 06:54:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Won't it also differentially kill off the smokers, who are more likely to be Democrats?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 07:02:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
wow that's an old article and the difference is tiny. More men smoke, though, and more men vote Trump...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 07:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"virus has mainly affected Dem states [sic]"
s/b cities. Period.
Population density + muni cash (read: governor political base), truly, the only factors provoking AUTHORITARIAN enforcement (read: 1. police powers 2. fines) of quarantine orders ... which have been daily, rapidly evolving over the past two wks. In MD, for example, I rarely leave house and still have whiplash.

Incidentally, disregard for homeless, custodial pops, and "nonessential" workers' (rarely union, natch) med, "self-isolating" housing, and jobless benefits is universal. London Breed's (D -Frisco) "mitigation" plan is nearly identical to Jack Young's (D-Bal'more): stack 'em in convention center "field hospitals". tbh, this "leadership" simulates normal, SOP across (R) south and mid-west where med services are dysfunctional. archived: aha.org
finite resources

Remember, March 28 UE print was 6.6M for the week, and testing kit access and distribution, rolled out 2 wks ago, is finally reaching critical mass. The story that medium chart pr0n can't touch is basic, American resistance public health, community, and welfare. The irony is, fed gov has exercised every  Holy Playbook recommendation (2014 ed.) except, iirc, National Emergencies Act; and all the exec got from Congress was CARES.

Older than dirt market solutions to every problem, regardless of factional competition in uniparty. "Live free or die" hiding in the "we."

by Cat on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 08:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bal'more Mayor Booker T. Young FINALLY, after two weeks ridicule and scorn, today announced "self-isolating" hotel accommodation for 160/2,000-4,000(e) shelter clients. His ass is siting on $97M budget surplus, which only (R) Gov. Larry "mag-lev" Hogan could love, while waiting for ... Godot.

ALSO county DATA VISUALIZATION in the 50 state baby CSSE. The COVID Tracking Project exploits CENSUS2010 block level data (ZIP CODE) to infer rate of infection by "race or ethnicity," ie. garden-variety US housing segregation.
< wipes tears >

Casually dropped in What the Racial Data Show


by Cat on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 12:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"poor people are dying"

by Cat on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 01:05:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now that they are spending all their time treating COVID, they are not making money anymore.
Hospitals and health systems have started to furlough workers and staff as they struggle with increased demand for services from COVID-19 and a lack of revenue from canceled elective procedures.

Some hospitals and systems are also implementing hiring freezes and not raising wages as they face the loss of revenue.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 08:25:06 AM EST
Ireland's infection peak may have passed, toll could hit 400 by August, report forecasts
Ireland has passed its peak of Covid-19 infections but can expect more than 400 deaths by August, according to forecasts based on new international modelling data published on Tuesday.

Peak resource use of hospital and ICU beds passed on April 4th, while peak deaths passed on April 6th, according to the data published by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US.

The research looks at the predicted spread and impact of coronavirus in 29 European countries and assumes social distancing measures will remain in place until August.

It predicts there will be more than 150,000 deaths in Europe during the "first wave" of the pandemic.


The study predicts 66,300 deaths in the UK, the highest in Europe. The UK's use of bed resources is predicted to peak on April 17th and its deaths on April 20th.

It says the peak of the pandemic has passed in many European countries, including Spain, Italy and France, where 19,209, 20,300 and 15,058 deaths are predicted, respectively.

"It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates," said IHME director Dr Christopher Murray.

"Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation's trajectory will change - and dramatically for the worse - if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 12:46:22 PM EST
OFFICIAL Chinese numbers. No data from the Chinese government can be trusted and very very little from the US government.
by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 01:58:33 PM EST
Fortunately, you don't live in China. Do you?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 04:19:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No but I have friends who have been born there and grew up there.
by StillInTheWilderness on Wed Apr 15th, 2020 at 02:37:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On the other hand, the Chinese did publish figures that made them look very bad (before the rest of the world caught up).
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 04:22:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 07:49:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Very low testing rates, and testing only on hospital admission, is the main factor - see here.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 8th, 2020 at 12:11:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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