Wed Nov 30th, 2022 at 08:39:18 AM EST
America's hegemony and human rights (adversaries only)
A new look of the evil R2P policy and overthrow of leadership in sovereign states ... setting aside the UN Charter. War propaganda.
Dutch national broadcasts going full throttle to go after China now that Russia is hanging in the ropes. #WeAreNato
Freedom for more military operations by NATO through instilling FEAR
Germany's Scholz warns against 'decoupling' economies | DW News |
The German Chancellor met with leaders of the IMF, WTO, ILO, OECD and World Bank Tuesday to discuss a raft of global issues. Leaders called for smart planning and diversifying supply chains.
Scholz made a plea for pulling together during a difficult time.
"We can only confront our great challenges together," he said.
Scholz promised leaders gathered in Berlin that they could count on continued cooperation from Germany well into the future.
He also emphasized that deglobalization, decoupling and protectionism were not solutions.
Instead, Scholz advocated "smart globalization in which dependency can be reduced."
From globalization to deglobalization: Zooming into trade | Bruegel |
After decades of increasing globalization both in trade, capital flows but even people to people movements, it seems the trend has turned towards deglobalization. This article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser extent people to people flows. In addition, zooming into trade, the article offers an account of the importance of the strategic competition between the US and China to foster the deglobalization trend further. This is true for trade but even beyond in the tech and finance space. Finally, the demise of the WTO could be one of the most relevant turning points towards deglobalization, especially as far as trade is concerned. This should bring downward pressure to growth globally.
The hegemon reacts to China's economic prowess and development ... taming the beast.
Setting the goal of two separate global economic blocks ...
From the Trump administration trade war with China and MAGA, pulling manufacturing out of Asia. Using the COVID-19 pandemic, blaming China, turmoil in transport logistics, self interest, implementation Defense Production Act (DPA) and Biden pulling the ace out of his sleeve to punish Europe ... ending ties with Russia at any cost, even blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines.
The Roots ofBiden's War in Ukraine Reviewed
Development prospects in a fractured world: Global disorder and regional responses | UNCTAD Report |
After a rapid but uneven recovery in 2021, the world economy is in the midst of cascading and multiplying crises. With incomes still below 2019 levels in many major economies, growth is slowing everywhere. The cost-of-living crisis is hurting the majority of households in advanced and developing countries. Damaged supply chains remain fragile in key sectors. Government budgets are under pressure from fiscal rules and highly volatile bond markets. Debt-distressed countries, including over half of low-income countries and about a third of middle-income countries, are edging ever closer to default. Financial markets are jittery, as questions mount about the reliability of some asset classes. The vaccine roll-out has stalled, leaving vulnerable countries and communities exposed to new outbreaks of the pandemic. Against this troubling backdrop, climate stress is intensifying, with mounting loss and damage in vulnerable countries who lack the fiscal space to deal with disasters, let alone invest in their own long-term development. In some countries, the economic hardship resulting from these compounding crises is already triggering social unrest that can quickly escalate into political instability and conflict.
The resulting policy challenges are daunting, especially in an international system marked by rising distrust. At the same time, the institutions of global economic governance, tasked since 1945 with mitigating global shocks, delivering international public goods and providing a global financial safety net, have been hampered by insufficient resources and policy tools and options that are "rigid and old fashioned" (Syed, 2022; Yellen, 2022). Even as growth in advanced economies slows down more sharply than anticipated in last year's Report, the attention of policymakers has become much too focused on dampening inflationary pressures through restrictive monetary policies, with the hope that central banks can pilot the economy to a soft landing, avoiding a full-blown recession. Not only is there a real danger that the policy remedy could prove worse than the economic disease, in terms of declining wages, employment and government revenues, but the road taken would reverse the pandemic pledges to build a more sustainable, resilient and inclusive world (chapter III).
As noted in last year's Report, the pandemic caused greater economic damage in the developing world than the global financial crisis. Moreover, with their fiscal space squeezed and inadequate multilateral financial support, these countries' bounce back in 2021 proved uneven and fragile, dependent in many cases on a further build-up in external debt. The immediate prospects for many developing and emerging economies will depend, to a large extent, on the policy responses adopted in advanced economies. The rising cost of borrowing and a reversal of capital flows, combined with a sharper than expected slowing of China's growth engine and the economic repercussions from the war in Ukraine, are already dampening the pace of recovery in many developing countries, with the number of those in debt distress rising, and some in default. With 46 developing countries already severely exposed to financial pressure from the high cost of food, fuel and borrowing, and more than double that number exposed to at least one of those threats, the possibility of a widespread developing country debt crisis is a very real one, evoking painful memories of the 1980s and ending any hope of meeting the sustainable development goals (SDGs) by the end of the decade.
Slowing Global Economic Growth is Increasingly Evident, High-Frequency Data Show
While there are multiple headwinds weighing on growth, further policy tightening is expected amid the need to bring down elevated inflation
Georgieva, Okonjo-Iweala and World Bank President Mari Pangestu all agreed that developing countries would be hardest hit if the global economy were to fragment. By some estimates these could see double-digit losses in GDP.
IMF chief gives grim economic forecast
IMF Managing Director Georgieva said economic growth in the world's two largest economies -- the US and China -- was slowing, suggesting that IMF global growth estimates for 2023 would likely have to be adjusted down from 2.7% as had been projected in October.
She said roughly one-third of the global economy and half of Europe's would move into recession in 2023.
Georgieva also said inflation would linger longer than expected, though would hopefully drop to about 6.5% next year.
Gender Equality at Last: War In Ukraine
The generation of NATO war amazons ...
Proud! Just as tough as the guys.
Related reading ...
The Inflationary Consequences of Deglobalization | Project Syndicate |
Globalization previously made it easier for major central banks to pursue and maintain low inflation. Deglobalization risks having the opposite effect, and if this process continues unchecked, monetary policy may need to be tightened more than would otherwise be the case.
During the two decades before the 2008 global financial crisis, globalization seemed unstoppable. The volume of global trade increased more than twice as fast as world GDP, as liberalization of trade and investment in developing Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe contributed to a boom in cross-border reallocation of production flows of final and intermediate goods.
The hyper-globalization of this period, and notably the integration of China into world trade and investment portfolios, helped to reduce inflationary pressures in developed economies. For example, when overall annual US inflation was hovering around 2%, goods inflation was often about -1%. While US import prices of manufactured goods from industrialized countries rose by 33% between 1990 and 2008, prices of goods from developing countries increased by a mere 3.4%. Furthermore, the smallest price increases were for products imported largely from China.
The disinflationary pressure from China resulted from the country's sustained economic reforms and international firms' investments. China reduced its average tariff from over 40% in the early 1990s to 15% when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, and to about 8% in subsequent years. Economic liberalization and access to world markets spurred domestic Chinese entrepreneurs to set up firms in response to growing opportunities.
Meanwhile, China's encouragement of foreign direct investment, coupled with its low labor costs and relatively good infrastructure, attracted international companies, helping to turn the country into one of the largest FDI recipients and the "factory of the world." Foreign companies accounted for one-third to one-half of China's overall exports for much of the previous three decades.
By enabling low-cost imports to replace more expensive domestic products, globalization had a direct disinflationary impact on advanced economies. It also helped to make domestically produced goods more competitive and weakened workers' bargaining power.