Thu Aug 25th, 2022 at 05:59:01 PM EST
Jackson Hole Institutional investors will rate Europe as a developing nation and forego major capital injections in European stocks.
Word for Word 'Greenspan Shrugged': When Greed Was a Virtue And Regulation the Enemy | NY Times - July 21, 2002 |
Europe's fortunes have gone astray after financial crisis, austerity measures, inequality, Covid-19 pandemic, libertarian policies across the Western economic world ...
h/t by TGeraghty @EuroTrib on Aug 28th, 2006
Brad Setser has a unique way of looking at the importance of the European economy to global growth:
Europe, engine of global demand growth ... [cached]
That isn't a headline that you see in mainstream economy commentary. The standard story - one that is echoed in communiqué after communiqué - goes something like this.
Global rebalancing - code for a set of changes that will slow demand growth in the US and increase demand growth outside the US to help reduce the US deficit and the rest of the world's surplus - requires policy changes in Asia, the US and Europe.
Somehow, the oil exporters usually get left out despite having a bigger surplus than anyone else.
Dean Baker is one of my favorite US economists. He agrees with Jerome that Greenspan is guilty of recklessly blowing bubbles
The Federal Reserve Board is having its annual retreat at Jackson Hole, Wyoming and the agenda this year is devoted to a retrospective of Greenspan's 18-year tenure as Fed chairman. The world has not seen a greater display of obsequiousness since the death of Leonid Brezhnev. An economist whom I used to respect even called him the greatest central banker in history . . .
Let's get a few facts on record:
1) Mr. Greenspan ignored the stock bubble. . . . decided that it wasn't his job to do anything about the creation of $10 trillion in bubble wealth and the resulting economic distortions . . . . The tens of millions of people who saw much of their retirement savings disappear in the crash are just out of luck, as are the pension funds that are now insolvent ....
European Stocks Edge Lower; Jackson Hole Worries Weigh
Investing.com - European stock markets weakened Wednesday, with fresh hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official prompting caution.
"It's very clear" the Fed has to tighten monetary policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday in Minneapolis. "When inflation is 8% or 9%, we run the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and leading to very bad outcomes."
These comments, the latest of a series of hawkish Fed speeches, mean investors are wary ahead of the central bank gathering at Jackson Hole in Wyoming later in the week, expecting Fed chair Jerome Powell to deliver an aggressive tightening message and dash hopes for a rate cut next year.
Back in Europe, inflation is nearing double digits, gas prices are soaring as the war in Ukraine becomes six months old, while Eurozone business activity contracted for a second straight month in August, suggesting a recession is looming.
JCPOA Draft Agreement Offered by Europe
Iran will not allow inspections beyond what is in a 2015 nuclear deal, the country's nuclear chief said on Wednesday, potentially scuppering a deal to revive Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers.
The U.S. is shortly set to respond to a draft agreement proposed by the European Union that would bring back the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, potentially allowing Iran to export its crude onto the global market.
Also helping the tone was Tuesday's data from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry body, showed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels in the week to Aug. 19, far more than expectations for a drawdown of 450,000 barrels.
The market had sold off early as traders reassessed the chances of an imminent output cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+.
Capitalism in the 21st Century. Stagnation versus Growth in Europe? (2015)
Economic Implosion of the European Union, cut off from energy power house Russia, loses global competitive edge
Europe's new Energy Union aims at securing European energy supply - but, if not from Russia, where will Europe obtain its gas? | ECFR - April 2015 |
Our analysis covers the timeframe until 2025. Most of the EU's Russian gas contracts are expected to expire within this period, which will provide member states with the option to diversify their sources of supply. Ensuring European energy security will require more than investment in infrastructure and energy-specific know-how about interconnections and gas transit disruptions. It should form part of European energy diplomacy, with more concerted planning and action on the external side, including dialogue with global actors such as China (which is expected to be the major energy demand centre), the US, and Turkey (which is still only an observer in the Energy Community). This requires better coordination and shared decision-making within the Energy Union, with input both from the Commission and from the European External Action Service. A Special Envoy on International Energy Affairs could be appointed to oversee better coordination.
Russian Gas Made Europe a Global Leader
Value of the dropped to lowest value against the dollar in 20 years and with a sudden rise of inflation to 10%, I personally lost in buying power a third of my life's savings. As I was self employed, the investment of my savings is my retirement pension. Today the Millennials in power in The Hague are focused to relieve the "lucky" Boomer generation of some of their wealth. Today's younger generation are some much less fortunate in present cut-throat libertarian capitalistic State of Rutte & Co.
Making It Millennial | The Atlantic - Mach 17, 2022 |
The well-being of any society depends on each successive generation's ability to contribute to the common good. Yet today's rising generation, the Millennials, faces many obstacles to success.
Today's rising generation, the Millennials, faces a particularly bumpy path down the road to success. Millennials' coming of age corresponds with a global financial meltdown, a housing bust, the worst recession in the United States since the Great Depression, and soaring higher education costs. While Americans of all ages share these same experiences, the ways in which they impact the rising generation, both now and in the long term, are unique. Consider the economic environment in which today's young people currently operate, and the changing family planning and consumption trends among the Millennial generation.
Millennials entered the workforce during or in the wake of the Great Recession. Among Millennial college graduates, unemployment and underemployment, at 8.8 percent and 18.3 percent respectively, are historically high compared with the same age cohort in prior generations, and wages for employed Millennials have dropped 7.6 percent since the onset of the Great Recession. High unemployment levels and low wages are making it difficult for many Millennials to make even minimal payments on their record-high amounts of student loan debt. At present, loan default rates are approaching historic highs, damaging Millennial credit scores along the way.
Now in its 11th year, the survey finds Gen Zs and millennials are striving for balance and advocating for change | Deloitte - 2022 |
Related reading ...
Exploring legacies of the baby boomers in the twenty-first century | April 2021 | Inter-generational housing inequalities: `Baby Boomers' versus the `Millennials' | July 2018 |
Moody's affirms the European Union's (EU) Aaa rating, maintains stable outlook | March 17, 2022 |
The decision to affirm the Aaa rating reflects the following key rating factors:
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that member states' willingness and ability to support the EU financially will remain very strong, and that the stability of the legal framework and financial commitments underpinning the EU's financial operations will remain intact.
- The strong commitment of the EU's large and highly rated member states particularly the Government of Germany (Aaa stable), the Government of France (Aa2 stable) and the Government of the Netherlands (Aaa stable) to continue to support the institution financially.
- The successful implementation of the sharp increase in EU issuance and the ample financial resources available to service the increase in outstanding debt.
The stable outlook also reflects Moody's expectations that the EU will continue to be able to access very large volumes of funding on favourable terms to support the implementation of NGEU.
Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing? | The Economist - June 5, 2021 |
Moody's lowers European growth forecasts amid energy crisis | 25 July 2022 |
The Energy Relationship Between Russia and the European Union | Master Thesis - Feb.24, 2020 |
A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union's Reliance on Russian Natural Gas | IEA - March 2022 |
Europe's reliance on imported natural gas from Russia has again been thrown into sharp relief by [combined EU and increased US sanctions imposed for] Russia's [imminent] invasion of Ukraine.
In 2021, the European Union imported an average of over 380 million cubic metres (mcm) per day of gas by pipeline from Russia, or around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) for the year as a whole. As well as that, around 15 bcm was delivered in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The total 155 bcm imported from Russia accounted for around 45% of the EU's gas imports in 2021 and almost 40% of its total gas consumption.
A suite of measures in our 10-Point Plan, spanning gas supplies, the electricity system and end-use sectors1, could result in the EU's annual call on Russian gas imports falling by more than 50 bcm within one year - a reduction of over one-third.
These figures take into account the need for additional refilling of European gas storage facilities in 2022 after
low Russian supplies helped drive these storage levels to unusually [post-pandemic surge in demand from Asia and EU uncoordinated policy and failure to agree long-term Gazprom contracts resulting in less than average] storage levels.
The 10-Point Plan is consistent with the EU's climate ambitions and the European Green Deal and also points towards the outcomes achieved in the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Roadmap, in which the EU totally eliminates the need for Russian gas imports before 2030.
Russia's weak spot in fossil fuel economy
Russia's Unsustainable Business Model: Going All In on Oil and Gas | HCSS The Hague - Jan. 19, 2021 |
Revenues from oil and gas production are essential for Russia. Over the last decennium, they accounted for 40 to 50% of the Russian federal budget and about two thirds of Russian exports; percentages that are higher than those for the Soviet Union in the 1980's.
Russia is, with Saudi Arabia and the United States of America (US), one of the top three global oil producers. Russian oil reserves are only the 7th largest in the world, however. The revival of Western Siberia's giant oil fields, which had seen major reservoir damage under Soviet times, was a significant achievement under the Putin era but has now run its course. Maintaining production levels in these fields, already for decades the backbone of Russian oil production, is becoming more difficult and costly. Exploration for new oil fields in Eastern Siberia has yielded limited success. Unconventional shale oil is a high-cost oil for which the Russian oil industry lacks the technical expertise. Large parts of the Arctic resources lie offshore, and the Russian oil industry has virtually no offshore operating experience. Sanctions are increasingly limiting the Russian oil industry's ability to maintain production levels.
In contrast to Russia's more limited oil reserves its natural gas reserves are the largest in the world. The challenge here is not to produce the gas but to transport it and sell it at a profit. The rise of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping now enables the monetisation of remote gas reserves (and these are plentiful) throughout the world. US shale gas is increasingly providing a soft ceiling for gas prices, as US shale oil has done for oil prices since 2014. Russia will remain the key supplier of gas for the European Union (EU) but with the advance of LNG, abundant LNG import capacity within the EU and the liberalization of European gas markets, its influence on gas prices has diminished.
There is a remarkable symbiosis between the Putin regime and the Russian oil and gas industry. Oil and gas are the major source of income for the government. Oil and gas companies will not challenge the primacy of the Kremlin. Gazprom and Rosneft in particular will undertake projects where the geopolitical interests of the Russian government under Putin take preference over commercial considerations. Oil trading, rigged auctions of oil and gas assets as well as the construction of major projects, such as pipelines, at elevated prices, provide ample opportunities for the enrichment of the circle around Putin.
Credit Rating Agencies: Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem During Financial Crisis? (2011)