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Pax Americana, deficit spending, and the debasement of the US$

by Frank Schnittger Tue Dec 31st, 2024 at 10:20:33 AM EST

Arnold Carton recently had an excellent OP up comparing Donald Trump to Julius Caesar and noting that there is sometimes no turning back from Republican to dictatorial Imperial rule.  Another less talked about aspect of the fall of the Roman Empire was the ruinous cost of conducting so many military campaigns with succeeding Emperors (who often only lasted a few months before being killed by rivals or their own men) simply issuing more currency to finance them.


Eventually the Roman currency collapsed and people had to resort to barter - resulting in much reduced trade and a far more inefficient economy. One of the main benefits of "Pax Romana" evaporated even as the costs increased.

One of the things few understand about US politics is the importance of deficit spending. It used to be that liberals were keen on public spending and were often accused of pushing up the deficit. Conservatives, on the other hand, had an almost religious and moral abhorrence of borrowing and insisted on the fiscal prudence of balancing the books. "Neither a Lender nor a borrower be."

Modern conservatives have turned that on its head and have borrowed like there is no tomorrow (while opposing attempts to raise the debt ceiling by Democratic Presidents). Cheney famously told Bush that "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." This gives the misleading impression that the economy, and Americans generally do better when Republicans are in power.

But it is all on borrowed money, often at increasing rates of interest, and it is the next President who cops the grief when the borrowing has to be repaid. GW Bush increased the national debt by over 100% and then the economy crashed. But Obama was prevented by Republicans from borrowing adequately to help the economy recover post crash, which meant the recovery was long, slow, and sluggish - for which Republicans gleefully blamed Democrats.

Biden was determined not to repeat that mistake post Covid, and the economic recovery from the shutdowns during the Pandemic was therefore much more rapid. But for all the Republican (and European right wing commentary) blaming him for massively profligate spending and increased inflation, he has in fact increased the deficit by less than any other recent President and the much touted prolonged period of stagflation never happened.

Moreover, Biden's spending was on infrastructure, healthcare, promoting clean energy security and re-locating industrial production back to the USA - with Republican voting states benefiting most from new industries locating there - go figure. Republican tax cuts almost all go to corporations and the wealthy, so much so that virtually all the incremental increases in real wealth over the past 30 years have gone to the top 1%. Trickle down economics, how are you?

Somehow Republicans never get blamed for this, because their massive borrowing means everyone "feels" somewhat better off - until the debts have to be repaid - and by then its all the Democrat's fault.

Trump has already had a row with Congressional Republicans who baulked at his request for a massive hike in the debt ceiling. He needs it to finance his promised tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. Some hapless future Democratic president will end up having to implement austerity to pay the debt back.

Thus the myth that Reagan far outperformed Carter in his management of the economy. In fact Carter created 10 million new jobs in his term - twice what Reagan created in the following four years.. But Reagan also massively increased deficit spending on armaments and tax reductions for the wealthy, which meant that eventually many people felt better off.

As the world's reserve currency, there is effectively no limit on how much the USA can borrow - absent Congressional restraint.  The danger is that the currency becomes so devalued and debased that fewer and fewer people want to be exposed to US debt or conduct their business in Dollars. Hence Trump's avowed hatred of the Euro and Chinese attempts at creating viable alternatives.

So the debt doesn't matter until it does. In Ernest Hemingway's novel, The Sun Also Rises, Mike Campbell is asked how he went bankrupt. He offers the sobering and famous line, "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly." The Roman Empire survived Julius Caesar by almost 400 years in the West, and another 1,000 years in the East, but it never returned to its republican roots and was sustained only by increasingly bloody wars. It was to be another 1,500 years before Europe had a common currency again.

Some things, once broken, can never be restored, or else can take a very long time to repair.

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The Big-Spending Presidents in 20th Century -- America, Land of Opportunity

The Paths to Easy Financing

Regardless of the political party in the White House, domestic spending growth has usually occurred only when easy financing mechanisms were available. The most important factor affecting government spending over the last 50 years was the relative decline in the defense budget. Even since the Korean War, the defense budget has declined from about 14 percent to 3.4 percent of GDP.

The drop since then amounts to about $800 billion more annually-- roughly $8,000 per household--that we can now spend on domestic programs. This is on top of the hundreds of billions provided by simple growth in the economy, even while there was no significant change in average tax rates when all federal taxes are taken into account. Now it's easy to understand why some presidents were big spenders. They got to spend peace dividends. Truman did so after World War II, Eisenhower after the Korean War, Nixon as the Vietnam War wound down, and George H. Bush in the post-Cold War era.

Apart from defense, other methods of easy financing were available in the first few decades after World War II. These allowed Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon to increase domestic spending more easily than other presidents.

Nixon and the End of the Bretton Woods System, 1971-1973

On August 15, 1971, President Richard M. Nixon announced his New Economic Policy, a program "to create a new prosperity without war." Known colloquially as the "Nixon shock," the initiative marked the beginning of the end for the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates established at the end of World War II.

Additional reading ...

Lessons to be drawn from the oil price shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s | ECB |

Hyper inflation and high unemployment ... followed by a deep recession in the early 1980s. Say hello to the Iron Lady in Great Britain ...

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Dec 31st, 2024 at 05:59:23 PM EST
Carton has a very poor understanding of the crises of the Roman Republic and the figure of Julius Caesar. He is of course in "good" company, if JD Vance can be considered company. The remotest suggestion that the next president has something to do with Caesar is hilarious.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Dec 31st, 2024 at 09:43:04 PM EST
It was meant to be a bit of a joke, or at least a very ironic comparison.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 3rd, 2025 at 07:49:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any comparison has little or no value ... a bit of framing ... I loved to think of Nero or perhaps Caligula? Sure Don would be charmed 😂

It was Thomas Jefferson, one of America's founding fathers, who drew inspiration from the republican ideals and aesthetics of the Roman Republic, which he admired for its principles of civic virtue, republicanism, and enduring architecture. Jefferson influenced the classical architectural style that defined some DC buildings, such as the US Capitol and Supreme Court, infusing the cityscape with a Roman grandeur that embodied the principles of America's founding vision. Surely, early American Presidents positioned themselves in the tradition of ancient Greeks and Romans whose vibrant societies and polity stood out for holding public debates and developing principles, such as the rule of law, liberty and justice.

Damn statues are a big scandal though 🤣 ... can be draped ... Greco-Roman wrestling and Athens Olympics. Modernity ..

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Fri Jan 3rd, 2025 at 10:19:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some comments on Slugger call him out on the comparison. Off hand Trump would like to act more like Sulla. I might call into question the prevailing reading that the Roman Senate represented the safeguard of the institutions of the republic. A critical appraisal of the actions of the Senate in the massacre of the Gracchi and their followers, their complicity with Sulla, their persecution of tribunes, the nomination of Pompei to "restore order" and their short-sided heavy-handed negotiation stance with Caesar likely contributed more to the final collapse of the republic than Caesar's dictatorships. Republics are invariably destroyed by their oligarchs and their unbridled greed. A republic that cannot contain the destructive pulsions of its oligarchs is doomed. Populist figures such as Caesar only offer temporary reprieve, and, as Rome shows, are swiftly dealt with in no uncertain ways.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Fri Jan 3rd, 2025 at 10:42:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
" Republics are invariably destroyed by their oligarchs and their unbridled greed."

You wouldn't be referring to Musk by any chance?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jan 4th, 2025 at 03:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I refer to Machiavelli who came to that conclusion in his Discourses. He asserted that oligarchs should be hacked to pieces, either physically or figuratively with a constitutional ordering and laws that prevented them from taking too much power. He considered that the Roman Republic collapsed because of the oligarchs. The U.S. is only the latest example.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sat Jan 4th, 2025 at 06:57:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regarding the currency, I have a long comment somewhere in the archives about inflation in Rome with lots of links. The short version is that inflation was steady but manageble up to the crisis of the third century when you get a series of civil wars for 50 years. Trade routes break down, currency is debased, and armies and emperors plunder the empire to keep going.

For the US currency, the US government creates currency and hands it to oligarchs and loyal vassal leaders. This increases the power of the oligarchs in the US, and binds the loyal vassals to the empire. The US has repeatedly shown that it accepts any level of corruption, but disloyal local leaders gets their assets frozen.

As all systems, it works until it doesn't. I don't think the US empire will collapse because of printing dollars because the US government can produce any amount of dollars, and as long as it blows asset bubbles and doesn't goes to the population, inflation from printing is contained (the Covid inflation is mostly supply shock leading to monopolistic companies taking the opportunity to increase prices and asset increases doesn't count). Prices on goods from vassals can be controlled through the vassal leaders.

All empires fall. The US empire lost to the Talibans, gets outproduced by Russia in war materials and is thus losing in Ukriane, and is funding and abetting the genocide in Gaza, which is very visible and undermines soft power all around the world. The US is noticable weaker then a mere 20 years ago. Where the breaking point is, nobody knows. Hopefully we get there without nuclear war.

Once vassal leaders starts eyeing the exit, they will try to sell off assets they can't take with them, in effect US dollars for anything. Oligarchs will probably also try to diversify if they think the empire risk  going belly up. The only people who will always need dollars are the US inhabitants, who are few in comparision with the number of dollars that will one day need offloading.

So once vassals start breaking off, there will probably be an accelarating inflation in the US, increasing the speed of the empirical decline if not causing an outright collapse. Maybe they will then mythologise that it was the inflation that killed the empire.

by fjallstrom on Thu Jan 9th, 2025 at 07:37:14 PM EST


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