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Demographics Will Determine Fate of Russia

by Oui Sat May 25th, 2024 at 09:13:58 AM EST

The Waning World Power | Berlin Institute - 2011 |
By Stephen Sievert, et al.

Russia and its neighboring republics from the former Soviet bloc have a long, painful experience with demographic crises: famine, war, exile and genocide led to significant population declines and mass migrations to places where essentially no one wanted to live. However, the demographic changes currently observed in the region are significantly different from all previous ones.


On the one hand, numerous generations of the post-war period are on the threshold of retirement age, although in Russia, just like in Ukraine or Belarus, about half of the male population already does not live to see 65 years of age. Nowhere in Europe do people die earlier than in Russia. On the other hand, the country is growing up a generation of young people born during the period of extremely low birth rates after the collapse of the Soviet Union. If we assume that this generation, upon reaching reproductive age, will also have few children, which is now the norm, then the demographic situation in the country will worsen significantly.

Especially the regions of the Far East and the Far North suffer from depopulation, since here, along with a low birth rate, there is a massive migration outflow of the population. By mid-century, Russia's population could decline by 25 percent. First of all, this will affect the amount of available labor - until 2030. It is expected to decrease by 15 million people, or almost 20 percent. At the same time, these people will have to overcome the most difficult transformation: the transition from a resource-based economy, which President Medvedev once called "primitive," to a diversified economy with a developed sector of services and scientific achievements.

The Moscow leadership is well aware that the sale of raw materials is quite unstable and too dependent on global conditions. That it helps strengthen monopolies and corruption and ensures government intervention in the economy, that it divides society into clans of rich oligarchs and subclasses of the poor and underprivileged.

However, the former empire of tsars and five-year plans has great difficulty in leaving behind the old ideology and instead building a future based on human capital, i.e. allow the development of a modern society with a creative and self-confident middle class, capable of free thought and action. Despite all the government's attempts to introduce innovation in the country through the construction of technology parks and special economic zones, a new, open and economically liberal Russia is still not felt.

A great opportunity for the empire to strike at this "regional" power.

Obama: Russia Is 'A Regional Power,' Not Top Geopolitical Foe | NBC News - 23 March 2014 |

President Barack Obama says that he still does not consider Russia to be the top geopolitical enemy of the United States.

Ivo Daalder on making Russia a pariah state - The Atlantic Council (2008)

NATO's bull$hit war narrative has captured the minds of European leadership ... post 9/11 from one disaster to the next ... the aging empire on display ... Israel will be the closing chapter of a universal world.

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Destroying everything learned from the evil of Nazi Germany 🇩🇪 ... the Holocaust ... Genocide Law, but especially the conditions set out by the UN Charter to preserve peace.

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