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Russian war aims in Ukraine

by Frank Schnittger Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 06:23:45 PM EST

As the Ukraine war progresses there has been much confusion over what Russia's real war aims are especially as these appear to have changed as the realities of fierce fighting on the ground have caused them to re-group. Yesterday RIA Novosti, a Russian state media outlet, published a lengthy piece by Timofey Sergeytsev entitled What should Russia do with Ukraine outlining their war aims. (h/t - Andy Thornton). What follows below  are some of the highlights in an English translation of the full article.

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The determinants of N. Ireland's political future

by Frank Schnittger Tue Mar 22nd, 2022 at 05:12:15 PM EST

Debate about the constitutional future of N. Ireland tends to revolve around internal factors like demographic trends, relative economic advantage, and the dysfunctional state of current political arrangements. But N. Ireland doesn't exist in a vacuum and may also be subject to the influence of trends in global, European, British and Irish politics and economics more generally. In this discussion I want to focus on these external factors, and their influence on N. Ireland, rather than on the economic, social and political changes that are taking place within N. Ireland itself.

These external factors may be broadly summarised as follows:

1.    Economic and political globalisation
2.    The growing heft and influence of Ireland and the Irish diaspora.
3.    Economic integration and "Ever closer union" within the EU
4.    The rise of English, Scottish and Welsh nationalism
5.    A return to "the sick man of Europe" for the post Brexit UK economy?

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A "Cleary Defensive" Deployment

by Frank Schnittger Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 01:00:59 AM EST

War in Europe - Russia's assault on Ukraine (Seventh letter down)

A chara, - We are indebted to our MEPs Mick Wallace, Clare Daly, Luke "Ming" Flanagan, and Sinn Féin's Chris MacManus for voting against a European Parliament motion condemning the Russian build-up of troops on the Ukrainian border, a vote which was passed by 548 to 69. Mick Wallace and Clare Daly justified their vote on the basis that the Russian troop deployment was "clearly defensive". Perhaps Mick Wallace and Clare Daly could treat us to another one of their famous taxpayer-funded "fact-finding" missions to Kiev to see how Russia's self-defence deployment there is going. No doubt Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky will greet them with open arms and show them at first-hand what a Russian defensive deployment looks like. - Is mise,

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Mary Walshe

by Frank Schnittger Thu Feb 17th, 2022 at 10:33:24 AM EST

To Mary Walshe:
Goodbye my good friend,
You, who came from a very different place
And went your own way
Even further away
You were a friend to my wife
Who became mine for a while
When she passed away
To a better place
I was grieving her loss
Unable to see very far
And when you went to Chicago
I couldn't follow you there
We spoke for a while
In desultory calls
As the links slowly dissolved
Between your world and mine
You seemed troubled there
Unsure of your place
Your principles destroyed
By the need to survive
You wanted your space
So I let go of you then
And I haven't followed you since
Though you remain in my thoughts
I hope you have found
The peace that eluded you here
As a comet in the night sky
Passes us both
As our connections are lost
in a cloud of cosmic dust
as our feelings of trust
have moved on to the heavens
and so I say goodbye
to my long lost friend.

Comments >> (2 comments)

The Benefits of Brexit

by Frank Schnittger Sun Feb 6th, 2022 at 03:09:53 PM EST

The `benefits' of Brexit

On the same day that Boris Johnson was dismissing multiple calls on him to resign after Sue Gray's "Partygate" synopsis, the UK's cabinet office quietly slipped out a 105 page document called "The Benefits of Brexit". It was almost as if it didn't want anyone to read how exactly Britain was "capitalising" on its exit from the EU. So which dividends was it trumpeting?

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Clever devices

by Frank Schnittger Fri Feb 4th, 2022 at 01:46:14 PM EST

Published in the Irish News as its lead letter:

‘Clever devices' may not be the sole preserve of Donaldson's DUP

Writing in the Irish Times, Newton Emerson notes that Jeffrey Donaldson has brought in [former DUP leader] Peter Robinson as an adviser, as he is allegedly good at coming up with "clever devices". (When will the DUP level with the public? Opinion & Analysis, 27th. January). The new strategy apparently involves the DUP collapsing the institutions after the May assembly election if they don't get their way on the Protocol. However, clever devices may not be the sole preserve of the DUP. /cont.

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My Bloody Sunday

by Frank Schnittger Sun Jan 30th, 2022 at 03:31:09 PM EST

I'm republishing this diary, first published in 2010, on the 50th. anniversary of Bloody Sunday, one of the worst atrocities which kick started the war in N.Ireland.

(Now also available on Booman and in Orange where a member of the family of one of those killed has commented).

Bloody Sunday was for me one of those life defining events, to be remembered a bit like the day JFK was assassinated, Nelson Mandela was freed, and I first heard Neil Young's "Harvest" and "After the Gold Rush" holed up in some Lexington, Virginia attic after some kind students had offered me a lift and a place to stay for the night as I was hitch-hiking my way down the east coast of America in 1973.

I was a student in Trinity College Dublin at the time of Bloody Sunday in 1972, not very happy with myself, my course, or the world into which I had been born. The world seemed to be a place where the powerful did more or less as they pleased, and the little people always got squashed. Paratroopers firing dum-dum bullets at unarmed civil rights marchers seemed to capture that feeling perfectly. I was enraged, and could do absolutely nothing about it.

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My Bloody Sunday 1972

by Frank Schnittger Sun Jan 30th, 2022 at 03:28:26 PM EST

I'm republishing this diary, first published in 2010, on the 50th. anniversary of Bloody Sunday, one of the worst atrocities which kick started the war in N.Ireland. (Now also available on Booman and in Orange where a member of the family of one of those killed has commented).

Bloody Sunday was for me one of those life defining events, to be remembered a bit like the day JFK was assassinated, Nelson Mandela was freed, and I first heard Neil Young's "Harvest" and "After the Gold Rush" holed up in some Lexington, Virginia attic after some kind students had offered me a lift and a place to stay for the night as I was hitch-hiking my way down the east coast of America in 1973.

I was a student in Trinity College Dublin at the time of Bloody Sunday in 1972, not very happy with myself, my course, or the world into which I had been born. The world seemed to be a place where the powerful did more or less as they pleased, and the little people always got squashed. Paratroopers firing dum-dum bullets at unarmed civil rights marchers seemed to capture that feeling perfectly. I was enraged, and could do absolutely nothing about it.

Read more... (25 comments, 2129 words in story)

Normal politics in N. Ireland?

by Frank Schnittger Tue Jan 25th, 2022 at 05:57:51 PM EST

On Saturday a newspaper poll indicated that Ulster Unionist Party leader Doug Beattie was the most popular party leader in Northern Ireland. That evening he tweeted a joke about Edwin Poots and his wife which can at best be described as in poor taste. This drew attention to a series of derogatory tweets he had made over the past 10 years referring to women, Muslims, members of the Travelling community and people with mental health issues. He has offered to resign and if he does so, it will result in the fourth leader the UUP have had in just over 2 years, beating the record of the DUP in this regard.

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World Wide Electricity Super-grid

by Frank Schnittger Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 12:32:48 PM EST

There has been much discussion of our electricity deficit and of the need to go nuclear to address the intermittency of wind and solar energy. However, fourth generation nuclear reactors, even if they prove to be safe and viable, won't be with us for many years, so we need to start now on a more immediate solution.

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Mandatory vaccination

by Frank Schnittger Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 12:45:50 PM EST

My letter in the Irish Times

Not allowing the unvaccinated into crowded places where the risks of cross-infection are high is no more onerous than not allowing the intoxicated, unlicensed, or uninsured to drive. It is done to protect the general public from a greater risk of harm. Entering a pub or stadium is no more a human right than driving a car.


Compulsory vaccination is likely to be a counter-productive policy with little benefit when over 90 per cent of the eligible population are voluntarily vaccinated in any case. But placing restrictions on where the unvaccinated can go is not an impairment of their human right to bodily integrity; it is a vindication of the human rights of others to be protected from unnecessary risk of harm.

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Political Sectaranism in Northern Ireland today

by Frank Schnittger Tue Jan 11th, 2022 at 11:53:50 PM EST

Unionist sense of entitlement still exerted in UK politics

In 1933 Basil Brooke, later Lord Brookeborough and Prime Minister of Northern Ireland said the following: "I appreciate the great difficulty experienced by some of them [Protestants and Orangemen] in procuring suitable Protestant labour, but I would point out that the Roman Catholics are endeavouring to get in everywhere and are out with all their force and might to destroy the power and constitution of Ulster."


A few days ago, in comments later endorsed by DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson, former Labour minister Baroness Hoey wrote: "There are very justified concerns that many professional vocations have become dominated by those of a nationalist persuasion, and this positioning of activists is then used to exert influence on those in power".


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Alcoholism and drink prices

by Frank Schnittger Mon Jan 10th, 2022 at 08:31:05 PM EST

Like nearly all countries, Ireland has an addiction problem with alcohol, smoking, prescribed drugs, illicit drugs and gambling the chief offenders. Many drugs addicts are "polydrug" abusers, consuming alcohol, prescribed drugs or whatever illicit drugs come to hand fairly indiscriminately. Sometimes the addiction is as much social as physiological or neurological. Sometimes the motivation is as much self-medication or self-harm as pleasure.

The Irish government has just introduced "Minimum Pricing" for alcohol for retail outlets. This will increase the minimum price of (for example) a bottle of wine from €5 to €7.40.

Many aspects of the legislation I can agree with, such as the ban on multipack or 2 for 1 promotions designed to increase purchases beyond what the consumer originally intended to buy. However the minimum pricing itself I think a poorly thought out measure, and so I had a letter published by both the Irish Times and the Independent saying the following:

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The development of the modern "Irish Pub"

by Frank Schnittger Sun Jan 2nd, 2022 at 08:27:08 PM EST

Being a craft brewing aficionado, Helen wouldn't have approved, but in her honour I have decided to tell a brewing related yarn...

David Gluckman's book "That S*it Will Never Sell" tells the stories behind the drinks he claims to have invented or worked on, including Le Piat d'Or, Aqua Libra, Sheridan's, Tanqueray Ten, Smirnoff Black, Bailey's and many others. The Irish Times published an extract some years ago about his involvement in the development of Bottled Draft Guinness and Guinness Light.

One of the stories I have never seen told anywhere is the development of the modern "Irish Pub" concept, surely one of the greatest marketing successes of all time, precisely because it isn't generally recognised as a marketing story in the first place.

Irish pubs have of course existed for centuries in Ireland and countries with concentrations of Irish emigrants. But it first became a commercial marketing concept in the early 1990's when Guinness sponsored a programme to encourage the development of Irish themed pubs on a grand scale. Today there are many thousands of "Irish Pubs" all over the world, and as a retail category it has become as ubiquitous as an Italian Pizzeria or an American burger joint.

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United Ireland - a marriage of give and take?

by Frank Schnittger Mon Dec 27th, 2021 at 12:40:20 AM EST

Fintan O'Toole has written a piece arguing that Believers in a united Ireland without trade-offs are as bad as Brexiteers. (Regrettably subscriber only). In it he argues that those who believe that a united Ireland will simply be a takeover of the north by the south are as guilty of wishful thinking as the Brexiteers.

So far so good. However he then goes on to compare any such union to a marriage which requires a lot of give and take to work well. I don't think that is a good analogy because there are many different strands of opinion both north and south, and unionists simply have no incentive to engage in any negotiation prior to a vote under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, as any such discussion would only make a vote for re-unification more likely.

The Irish Times has published my letter in response (see also below the fold).

Read more... (43 comments, 873 words in story)

Happy Christmas to all!

by Frank Schnittger Sat Dec 25th, 2021 at 09:52:15 AM EST

On behalf of European Tribune, may be wish all of our readers and contributors here a happy Christmas, season's greetings, winter solstice or whatever way you like to characterise or frame it yourself!  

It's been a tough year for most of us, with Covid and associated social restrictions making life difficult for many of us, and tragic, awful, or lonely for some. Here's to wishing for you that next year will offer more hope, health and happiness to all, with more effective vaccines and treatments for those who fall ill.

The pandemic has also reminded us of the importance of our social bonds as friends, relatives and citizens and the dangers of the extreme individualism, selfishness, egotism and narcissism of the few who refuse to accept any of their social responsibilities.

In an age of consumerism, perhaps the best gift we can give each other is the space and respect we need to keep well. Keep safe, good friends, until we can meet up again!

Comments >> (8 comments)

From oven ready to de-Frosted

by Frank Schnittger Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 12:38:30 PM EST

The gradual collapse of the Johnson regime as his lies and contradictions catch up with him are a wonder to behold. First his rather splendid oven ready deal with which he achieved an 80 seat majority has been shown to have contained some rather obvious flaws. Former adviser Dominic Cummings and DUP MP Ian Paisley Jnr. have revealed that he never intended to abide by it in the first place.

Second his "levelling up" agenda has been revealed as a scam as the budget increased taxes on the lowest paid while offering more inducements to the better off. Fantasy projects such as his bridge from Scotland to N. Ireland were never intended as anything more than a symbolic commitment to closer links between Britain and Ireland and weren't even taken seriously by the DUP.

But what has probably done for him, even among his own supporters, is his rather loose association with consistency, truth and probity in office. The Downing Street parties in breach of lockdown restrictions applied to everyone else; the undisclosed, privately financed and extravagant refurbishment of his Downing Street apartment; and his botched attempt to knobble the regulator when she accused former cabinet Minister, Owen Patterson, of using his position to benefit companies paying him hundreds of thousand a year in "consultancy fees" are added to a long list of constitutional and procedural indiscretions.

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The weird and wonderful

by Frank Schnittger Fri Dec 17th, 2021 at 05:19:42 PM EST

The weird and wonderful ways of British diplomacy were again on display with the unexpected, unrequested, and unexplained decision by the British government to waive all checks on goods arriving from the island of Ireland "until further notice". Exports from Ireland to Britain have been booming (+20%) compared to last year, with imports from Britain slumping by 32%.

Some believe the decision is because UK customs systems are simply not ready to process this level of exports. Another theory is that the Johnson government is concerned import controls might add to the shortages of food and other goods being faced by British consumers. The UK imports almost half the food it consumes with 26% of its total food consumption coming from the EU. More food shortages would not be a good look for the Johnson government.

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Irish women's rugby

by Frank Schnittger Wed Dec 15th, 2021 at 10:45:31 AM EST

Irish rugby needs a ‘truth and reconciliation’ process

It's sad to see the obvious distress and discord in Irish women's rugby revealed by the letter to the government signed by 62 current and former internationals. The IRFU has rejected "the overall tenor" of the letter but must surely accept they have "lost the dressing room" as far as elite women's rugby is concerned.

The IRFU are perhaps particularly embarrassed by the letter at a time when they have just received a large subvention from the government to help them overcome their Covid related difficulties and when the men's professional game is going from strength to strength.

The lack of trust and confidence evinced by the letter signatories in those responsible for running the women's game does not bode well for the future. Perhaps it is time for a "Truth and Reconciliation" process within Irish rugby, chaired by a trusted and independent expert, to clarify the issues and map out an agreed pathway to a better future.

The many women who have given dedicated service to Irish rugby deserve no less. Irish rugby needs to rebuild the trust and confidence of a large part of its support base, and the many girls and women now taking up the sport need to be convinced they will be supported to reach their full potential. If Irish men can reach the top of the rugby world, why not our women?

Comments >> (2 comments)

Paying for Irish Unity

by Frank Schnittger Fri Dec 10th, 2021 at 01:06:23 PM EST

Newton Emerson writes "The truly decisive outcome of this decade will be whether voters in the Republic see through a Sinn Féin government's unity posturing, or whether their frustration is directed towards unionists." (Nationalist timeframe for unity does not stack up, Opinion & Analysis, 9th. December).  


For decades, the more extreme unionist parties have managed to shore up their voter base by scaring their voters into supporting them as otherwise "the other side" might win leading to a united Ireland. Now the boot is on the other foot and Sinn Fein are trying the same gambit, claiming a united Ireland is just around the corner if only voters would rally behind them.  

Both the DUP and SF need inter-communal tensions to remain high, as otherwise the more moderate centrist parties might grow in support. It's all a game as "those in the know" know there is no majority for a change in the status quo right now, and even in the south, voters might think twice if asked to stump up the €12 Billion p.a. subvention the North currently receives from Westminster.

The confidence that a united Ireland might be closer, post Brexit, is not based on anything that is happening in Ireland right now, but on what has happened with the rise of English and Scottish nationalisms.  If the UK government were to suffer a post Brexit economic collapse, they might think twice about paying the €12 Billion subsidy. It is, after all, greater than their erstwhile much-hated net contribution to the EU.

So, what would "soft unionist" voters do if the €12 Billion subsidy were to be substantially reduced? Would they accept an offer of €6 Billion from the south if the alternative was no subsidy at all?  Coincidentally, the NHS budget for N. Ireland is currently about €7 Billion. Would unionists vote for a united Ireland if that was the only way they could retain the NHS?

Perhaps N. Ireland voters might also ponder whether the North's economy could grow as fast as the south and become independently viable if under similar governance? Either way, for the foreseeable future, a United Ireland will only come about when soft unionists realise they have no other option, and that depends on how long Britain can, and is willing to continue the subsidy.

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News and Views

 November 2022

by Bernard - Nov 1, 213 comments

Your take on this month's news


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